Oil Shocks and US Recessions: The 4%-of-GDP Burden Threshold (1970–2026)

A 56-year empirical analysis of US oil shocks. Every completed episode above the 4% burden threshold preceded a recession; sub-threshold episodes did not. The 2026 Iran War spike peaked at 2.6%.

📊 Eco3min — The Oil Burden Index (1970–2026) The consensus reaction to the 2026 oil price spike has followed a familiar script. Within days of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, mainstream outlets revived the James Hamilton canon — that ten of the eleven post-WWII US recessions were preceded by a major oil shock — and … Continue reading Oil Shocks and US Recessions: The 4%-of-GDP Burden Threshold (1970–2026)