FRED T10Y2Y — Daily CSV Download (Yield Curve 10Y–2Y Spread)

The yield curve spread (10Y–2Y) measures the difference between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — one of the most widely tracked recession indicators in macroeconomic analysis. Every inversion of this spread since 1976 has preceded a US recession, with a lead time of 6 to 24 months. This dataset provides daily observations from the FRED series T10Y2Y.

Dataset: Yield Curve Spread 10Y–2Y · Updated —

Source: FRED series T10Y2Y · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns. Each row represents one business day.

Negative values indicate yield curve inversion.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset covers nearly 50 years of daily yield curve observations including every major inversion episode.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The spread is directly available from FRED under series code T10Y2Y:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=T10Y2Y

The Eco3min dataset provides this same series with consistent column naming and stable download URLs, suitable for automated scripts and academic citation.

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-10y-2y.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-10y-2y.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

# Count inversion days
inversions = df[df["spread_10y_2y"] < 0]
print(f"Total inversion days: {len(inversions)}")
print(f"Current spread: {df['spread_10y_2y'].iloc[-1]:.2f}%")

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-10y-2y.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$spread_10y_2y)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

The T10Y2Y series is computed by subtracting the 2-year Treasury constant maturity rate (DGS2) from the 10-year rate (DGS10). Both input series are interpolated by the US Treasury from the daily yield curve of outstanding securities, using the same constant maturity methodology described in the 10-year Treasury yield dataset.

The spread is expressed in percentage points. A value of 1.50 means the 10-year yield is 150 basis points above the 2-year. A value of −0.50 means the curve is inverted by 50 basis points. The “zero line” — where the spread crosses from positive to negative — is the threshold that defines inversion.

This measure captures the slope of the intermediate portion of the yield curve. An alternative measure, the 10Y–3M spread (T10Y3M), uses the 3-month Treasury bill instead and is preferred in some academic literature — notably the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s recession probability model. Both are included in the Eco3min dataset library.

This dataset is updated weekly (Saturday 08:00 UTC) via automated pull from the FRED API.

Historical Regimes

1978–1980 — Volcker inversion. The spread inverted deeply (below −2%) as the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate above 20% to break inflation. The 1980 and 1981–1982 recessions followed within months. This remains the most extreme inversion in the dataset and the clearest example of intentional monetary policy-induced recession.

1988–1990 — Late-cycle tightening. A brief inversion in 1989 preceded the 1990–1991 recession by approximately 14 months. The inversion was shallow (−0.2%) and short-lived, but the signal was confirmed. This episode coincided with the savings and loan crisis and the Gulf War oil shock.

1998–2001 — Dot-com era. The curve inverted in 2000 as the Fed tightened into an overheating economy. The recession began in March 2001, roughly 12 months after the first inversion. The 9/11 attacks deepened the downturn but did not cause it — the yield curve had already signaled the underlying weakness.

2005–2007 — Pre-GFC inversion. The spread turned negative in late 2005 and remained inverted through 2007. The Great Recession began in December 2007, consistent with the historical 12–24 month lead time. Notably, many commentators dismissed this inversion as a “Greenspan conundrum” driven by foreign central bank Treasury purchases rather than a genuine recession signal.

2022–2024 — Deepest inversion since 1981. The spread reached −1.08% in July 2023, the deepest inversion in over 40 years. The inversion lasted approximately 26 months — the longest in the dataset. Whether the subsequent re-steepening will be followed by recession remains the central macroeconomic question as of early 2026. The CPI inflation trajectory and the real interest rate regime will likely determine the outcome.

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Related Research

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — H.15 Selected Interest Rates
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED series T10Y2Y

Suggested Citation

Eco3min Research. (2026). Yield Curve Spread 10Y–2Y (1976–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/yield-curve-inversion-credit-channel-recession-mechanism-inversion-history-dataset/