Macroeconomic Datasets & Financial Data Repository

This hub aggregates the evergreen resources: 99 macro-financial datasets (updated daily via FRED) and 34 research studies developing reference analytical frameworks (yield curve, real rates, liquidity illusion, oil burden, NY Fed probit recession model, BBB-ification, etc.). The Macro Watch publishes topical studies every Tuesday, anchored on a recent market or policy event and placed in their long historical context. The two layers are complementary.

The Eco3min Score is a monthly proprietary composite indicator classifying the US inflation regime across five dimensions: CPI trend, core dynamic, market expectations, wage pressure, and monetary signal. Its methodology is open and reproducible. It sits within the analytical framework developed in the complete US inflation guide.

The yield curve (10Y–2Y spread) has preceded every US recession since 1976 with a 6 to 24 month lead. High Yield credit spreads have also widened before every major equity drawdown since 1997, with a median lead of 7 months. The study Five Recession Rules Tested empirically compares accuracy, lag and false positives across five distinct rules, and the NY Fed probit model reconstructs the official probability over 35 years of daily Treasury data.

This hub indexes 99 macroeconomic dataset pages, most of which offer a CSV download, almost always with an Excel version. They cover inflation, interest rates, equity markets, liquidity, credit conditions, housing, commodities, and employment. Series under restrictive licences (Cboe, the University of Michigan, Freddie Mac, ICE BofA, Moody’s, Nasdaq, Coinbase) link to the primary source. Data come mainly from FRED, BLS, the World Bank and BEA (other producers are named on each dataset page), are automatically updated, and remain subject to their producer’s terms, stated on each dataset page; Eco3min text and analysis: CC BY 4.0.

The Net Liquidity Index equals total Fed assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) minus the reverse repo facility (ON RRP). It measures the effective liquidity of the financial system and is tracked by macro analysts such as Darius Dale and Raoul Pal. The full weekly dataset since 2003 is available, computed by Eco3min from three distinct FRED series.

The M2 growth rate has historically led CPI inflation by 12 to 18 months. The unprecedented +27% YoY growth in February 2021 preceded 9.1% CPI inflation in June 2022. The subsequent contraction to −4.7%, the first sustained M2 drop since the 1930s, foreshadowed the disinflation that followed. The study M2 and US Inflation: Testing the Monetarist Regime documents the breakdown of this relationship after ~1990 and its post-2020 resurgence.

CPI uses fixed consumption baskets while PCE uses dynamically updated weights that account for consumption substitution. Core PCE, the Fed’s official 2% target measure, typically sits 30 to 50 basis points below core CPI. The study PCE vs CPI Inflation Gap decomposes the sources of this divergence (weights, formula, scope). To go further: complete US inflation guide.

The real interest rate is the nominal yield minus inflation. When negative, lenders effectively pay borrowers, encouraging leverage and risk-taking. The real 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from +9.4% (Volcker era, 1982) to −6.4% (2022 inflation shock).