Macroeconomic Datasets & Financial Data Repository
Macro-Financial Data & Research
Download 79 clean macroeconomic datasets (CSV & Excel), explore 31 original research studies, and access interactive charts built from FRED, BLS, IMF and BEA data. Every dataset includes key statistics, Python/R code snippets, historical regime analysis, and free download. Learn how to read macro-financial indicators.
Daily updates (Mon–Sat, 08:00 UTC). Open data under CC BY 4.0 license. For topical macro research, see the Macro Watch.
⭐ Featured
The Macro Watch (weekly topical studies), the Eco3min composite indicator, the complete US inflation guide, and our most cited research.
Eco3min Macro Watch
Topical macro-financial studies published every Tuesday: analyses of recent market events placed in their long historical context. Each study includes a downloadable dataset, reproducible methodology, and statistical placement vs the historical distribution.
Eco3min US Inflation Regime Score
Monthly composite indicator classifying the US inflation regime across five dimensions: CPI trend, core dynamic, market expectations, wage pressure, and monetary signal. Auto-updated each month.
US Inflation: complete guide
Eco3min’s reference framework on inflation: 110 years of purchasing power destruction, transmission mechanisms, measures (CPI vs PCE vs core), historical regimes, and a reading grid to interpret every monthly release.
The US Dollar at the Onset of Global Crises (1973–2023)
Position of the trade-weighted dollar, Fed Funds rate, and real interest rates at the starting point of 18 major global crises. Regime classification and structured dataset.
US Equities
US benchmark indices, volatility, long-term valuations — and the non-linear relationship between real rates and equity multiples.
12 datasets · 4 studies · Weekly & monthly updates
US Real Interest Rates vs CAPE Ratio (1963–present)
The relationship between real rates and equity valuations is non-linear — a “tent” pattern where the highest multiples appear at moderately positive real rates, not at the lows. 757 monthly observations, regime classification, Excess CAPE Yield analysis.
Data used: S&P 500 returns · Real rates · CPI
The Contrarian’s Almanac: Why Buying Fear Has Outperformed Since 1990
Buying the S&P 500 when VIX exceeds 30 has produced a +22% median 12-month return since 1990, vs +8% when VIX is below 15. Volatility is not risk — it’s the market’s compensation for discomfort.
Every S&P 500 Crash Since 1950
Exhaustive catalogue of every S&P 500 peak-to-trough episode since January 1950. Distribution of durations, depths, and recovery times across 75 years of cycles — corrections, bear markets, and severe crashes.
Data used: S&P 500 · S&P 500 returns
Nasdaq Falls Harder Than S&P 500 in 8 of 9 Bear Markets (1971–2026)
Across the 9 Nasdaq bear markets between 1971 and 2026, the NDX fell harder than the S&P 500 in 8 cases (the 2007-09 GFC is the sole exception, ratio 0.99×). Average ratio: 1.63× (1.71× excluding GFC). The link to real rates only holds since 1995.
Data used: Nasdaq · S&P 500 · Real 10Y rate
S&P 500 Historical Returns (1990–2026)
Annual total returns including dividends, CPI, and real returns — 36 years covering every major market cycle.
S&P 500 — daily price (1950–2026)
Daily closing price of the most-watched benchmark index. Over 18,000 observations spanning seven decades.
Nasdaq Composite — daily (1971–2026)
The benchmark for technology and growth stocks. Over 13,000 observations including the dot-com bubble, the GFC, and the AI era.
VIX Volatility Index — daily (1990–2026)
The fear index — 30-day implied volatility of the S&P 500. Over 9,000 observations including GFC and COVID peaks above 80.
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio (1881–2026)
Shiller’s cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio — the long-term valuation anchor for comparing current multiples to historical extremes.
Excess CAPE Yield (1881–2026)
The earnings yield implied by CAPE minus the real 10-year Treasury yield — synthetic measure of valuation attractiveness vs risk-free.
S&P 500 P/E Ratio (1871–2026)
The classic price/earnings valuation ratio for the S&P 500, constructed from long-term index and earnings history.
S&P 500 Earnings Yield (1871–2026)
Earnings as a percentage of price — the inverse of P/E, often used for equity risk premium and cross-asset comparisons.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield (1871–2026)
Long-term income measure useful for valuation and total return analysis.
US Equity Risk Premium (1871–2026)
The extra return offered by equities over bonds — calculated as S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10-year Treasury yield.
S&P 500 / M2 Money Supply Ratio (1959–2026)
Are stocks really rising, or is money falling? This ratio strips monetary inflation out of equity prices — revealing real returns vs monetary illusion.
S&P 500 vs Fed Balance Sheet (2003–2026)
The most reproduced macro chart — equities vs Fed total assets. The correlation that defined the QE era and the net liquidity decomposition.
Big Tech CapEx as % of Revenue (2015–2026)
How much of their revenue do tech giants reinvest in infrastructure? Quarterly CapEx/Revenue ratio for AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, NVDA — via SEC EDGAR.
Interest Rates & Yield Curve
Treasury yields across the curve, Fed funds rate, mortgage rates, spreads and real rates — with recession signals anchored in the term structure.
14 datasets · 7 studies · Weekly & monthly updates
The Hidden Tax on Safety: How “Risk-Free” Assets Destroyed More Wealth Than Most Crashes
Over long periods, staying in cash has produced deeper negative real returns than major bear markets due to inflation.
Yield Curve Inversion History (2s10s Spread)
Complete history of 10Y–2Y inversions since 1976. Every inversion preceded a recession with a 6 to 24 month lag. NBER dating, statistical properties.
US Real Interest Rates History (1962–present)
770 monthly observations — from +9.4% (Volcker) to −6.4% (2022 shock). Five monetary regime classifications.
The Fed’s Track Record: 70 Years of Rate Decisions
Since 1954, the Fed has systematically started raising rates too late (median 8-month lag) and lowering them too late. Quantitative audit of every cycle.
The Worst Bear Market You’ve Never Heard Of: How the 30Y Treasury Lost 53%
The 2020–2023 period produced a 53% drop in long-duration Treasury prices — the worst bond crash in US history.
The 2-Year Treasury Leads Fed Pivots (1976–2026)
The 2-year Treasury yield peaks several months before every Fed cutting cycle since 1976 in median. Full replication over 50 years with lag analysis and false-signal review.
Reverse-Engineering the NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Reconstruction of the NY Fed probit model over 35 years of daily Treasury data (1990–2024). Comparison of 10Y–3M and 10Y–2Y signals, 1998 false-positive case, unresolved 2022–2024 inversion, and forward S&P 500 returns by curve regime.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)
The global reference rate — over 16,000 daily observations since 1962. Benchmark for mortgages, corporate bonds, and sovereign debt.
US 2-Year Treasury Yield (DGS2)
The market’s real-time gauge of expected Fed policy over 24 months. Moves nearly in lockstep with Fed Funds expectations.
US 3-Month Treasury Bill (DTB3)
The risk-free rate — the anchor of the curve and reference for money market instruments. Over 18,000 observations since 1954.
US 30-Year Treasury Yield (DGS30)
The benchmark for long-term government debt — used to price pensions, insurance reserves, and infrastructure.
Federal Funds Rate (1954–2026)
The Fed’s main policy tool — overnight interbank rate that propagates throughout the entire financial system.
10Y–2Y Spread (T10Y2Y)
The most watched recession indicator — every inversion since 1976 has preceded a US recession with 6 to 24 months lead time.
10Y–3M Spread (T10Y3M)
The NY Fed’s preferred recession probability measure. Some research shows superior predictive accuracy to 10Y–2Y.
US Term Premium (10-Year Treasury)
The compensation required by investors to hold long-term bonds rather than rolling short-term bills.
30-Year Mortgage Rate (1971–2026)
The price of housing credit — the most crucial rate for the $12+ trillion US residential market.
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10 – CPI)
Composite: the real cost of long-term borrowing after inflation. Negative rates = lenders paying borrowers.
Real 2-Year Treasury Yield (DGS2 – CPI)
Short end of the real yield curve — the direct measure of the Fed’s real policy stance.
Real Federal Funds Rate (1954–2026)
The overnight policy rate minus inflation — the direct measure of whether the Fed is actually tightening or easing.
Real Corporate Bond Yield — Moody’s BAA (1953–2026)
The real cost of long-term corporate borrowing — at the IG/HY frontier where fallen-angel risk concentrates.
Mortgage Spread — 30Y vs 10Y Treasury (1971–2026)
The credit and liquidity premium in housing. Widened to 300+ bps in 2022-2023 during the Fed’s exit from the MBS market.
Curve Slope — 10Y Treasury vs Fed Funds (1954–2026)
The total gap between policy and market rates. Inversions signal the market expecting Fed cuts. Longer history than T10Y2Y.
Inflation & Prices
Consumer prices, producer prices, the Fed’s preferred measures, real wages, and market-implied inflation expectations. See also the complete US inflation guide and the Eco3min Inflation Regime Score.
8 datasets · 5 studies · Monthly updates
US Inflation Is Not Linear: 110 Years of Purchasing Power Destruction
The US dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power since 1914. But this destruction has not been gradual — five inflation surges account for more than 80% of the cumulative loss.
US Inflation Breakeven Term Structure
Analysis of the term structure of inflation breakevens (5Y, 10Y, 5Y5Y forward). Detect when markets price transitory vs persistent inflation, and the breakdown of expectations anchoring.
PCE vs CPI Inflation Gap: Why the Fed Prefers PCE (1960–2026)
Core PCE is systematically 30 to 50 bps below core CPI since 1960. Decomposition of divergence sources (weights, formula, scope) and implications for the Fed’s 2% target.
WTI Shocks Amplify Existing Inflation (They Don’t Create It)
WTI oil shocks propagate already-elevated inflation rather than create it ex nihilo. Transmission analysis on major shocks since 1973, testing the direct channel (energy CPI) vs the expectations channel.
Core CPI vs Headline CPI: Three Episodes of Sustained Divergence (1957–2026)
Three episodes since 1957 saw the headline–core CPI gap exceed 2 pp. Only 1974 fully transmitted to core (+7.1 pp over 24 months, peaking at 11.9% in Feb 1975). 830 monthly observations with threshold testing.
US CPI Inflation History (CPIAUCSL)
The foundational inflation series — CPI-U index and year-on-year rate since 1914. The reference for adjusting any financial asset for inflation.
Core CPI Inflation (ex-food & energy)
Excludes volatile food and energy to reveal the underlying trend — the measure the Fed watches closely.
PCE Inflation (1959–2026)
The Fed’s official 2% target measure — broader than CPI, with dynamically updated consumption weights.
Core PCE Inflation (1959–2026)
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the metric behind every FOMC decision since 2012. Typically 30-50 bps lower than core CPI.
5-Year Breakeven Inflation (T5YIE)
Market-implied 5-year CPI inflation, derived from the spread between nominal Treasuries and TIPS.
10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE)
Market’s long-term inflation expectations — critical for assessing whether expectations remain “anchored” around 2%.
US Producer Price Index — PPI (1913–2026)
Prices at the producer/wholesale level — PPI leads CPI by 1 to 3 months. The leading indicator capturing supply chain pressures.
US Real Wage Growth (1964–2026)
Nominal average hourly earnings minus CPI inflation — the ultimate test of whether economic expansion benefits workers.
Labor Market & Employment
The Fed’s dual mandate in data — unemployment, payrolls, and high-frequency leading indicators.
4 datasets · 2 studies · Weekly & monthly updates
The Most Revised Number in Finance: How NFP Revisions Mislead Markets at Turning Points
At cycle turning points, Nonfarm Payrolls revisions averaged −68,000 per month around recession starts — the initial release systematically overstates job creation precisely when the country enters crisis.
Data used: NFP · Unemployment · Claims
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as a Recession Signal
60-year testing of weekly jobless claims thresholds that precede US recessions. Real-time detection with only 5 days of lag, plus analysis of post-pandemic false signals.
Data used: Initial Claims (ICSA) · Unemployment
US Unemployment Rate (1948–2026)
Half of the Fed’s dual mandate — the most watched labor market indicator, with over 900 monthly observations.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (1967–2026)
The highest-frequency labor indicator — published weekly with 5 days of lag. The first signal of a deteriorating labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls — NFP (1939–2026)
The most influential economic release in the world — total US employment level with over 1,000 monthly observations since 1939.
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (1959–2026)
Real-time recession indicator — triggered when the 3-month moving average of unemployment rises 0.50 point or more from its 12-month low.
Real Economy & Activity
GDP, industrial production, manufacturing surveys, and consumer sentiment — the hard and soft data that define the business cycle.
7 datasets · 1 study · Monthly & quarterly updates
Five Recession Rules Tested (1959–2026)
65 years of testing the five most-cited real-time recession detection rules: Sahm Rule, yield curve, claims, NFP, and leading indicators. Accuracy, lag, and false positives documented.
Data used: Sahm Rule · 2s10s Curve · Claims · NFP
US GDP Growth Rate (1947–2026)
The flagship measure of economic expansion and contraction. Two consecutive negative quarters = common (but unofficial) definition of recession.
US Real GDP Level (1947–2026)
US real Gross Domestic Product in chained 2017 dollars — the definitive measure of inflation-adjusted economic output.
US Industrial Production Index (1919–2026)
The Fed’s index for manufacturing, mining, and utilities — over 100 years of monthly data. The longest continuous measure of real activity.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (1948–2026)
The most watched manufacturing survey. Above 50 = expansion, below = contraction. Leads GDP turning points by 1 to 3 months.
Consumer Sentiment — U. of Michigan (1952–2026)
The oldest sentiment survey in the US. Record low of 50 in 2022 — lower than the GFC and COVID. Leading psychological signal.
US Personal Savings Rate (1959–2026)
Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income — the share of after-tax income households do not spend.
US Federal Debt to GDP (1966–2026)
US federal government gross debt as a percentage of GDP — the broadest measure of sovereign leverage.
Liquidity & Monetary Policy
Fed balance sheet, money supply, bank reserves, TGA, reverse repo — the plumbing of the financial system. Includes the net liquidity index and “stealth easing” classification.
9 datasets · 5 studies · Weekly & monthly updates
The Liquidity Illusion: Why the Fed Balance Sheet Is Not Market Liquidity
The Fed destroyed $2.14T via QT. ON RRP re-injected $2.37T. Net liquidity barely moved. A 1,212-week dataset decomposing liquidity into three components.
The Great Offset: How ON RRP Neutralized the Largest QT in History
The Fed destroyed $1.5T via QT, yet risk assets climbed. The secret lies in the drainage of the ON RRP facility acting as synthetic quantitative easing.
Debt Ceiling: How TGA Drainage Acts as a Liquidity Injection
Why the US government’s cash shortage is paradoxically bullish for risk assets. TGA mechanics and liquidity impact mapped across market cycles.
M2 and US Inflation: Testing the Monetarist Regime (Friedman)
The M2 → inflation relationship with 12–18 months of lead time held until ~1990, then broke down. Formal test of Friedman’s monetarist regime with documented structural break and post-2020 resurgence.
Fed Balance Sheet: Detailed Operational History (2002–2026)
Operational decomposition of the Fed balance sheet over 24 years: Treasuries, MBS, repo, swap lines, BTFP. Distinguishing structural QE/QT from emergency facilities to understand real impact on liquidity.
Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
Total Fed assets — from $900B pre-GFC to $9T in 2022. The QE/QT tracker that defines the liquidity regime.
M2 Money Supply (1959–2026)
Broad money supply — cash, deposits, money market accounts. M2 growth historically leads inflation by 12 to 18 months.
M2 Growth Rate — YoY (1960–2026)
The pace of money creation. +27% YoY in Feb 2021 → 9% CPI in June 2022. First sustained contraction (−4.7%) since the 1930s → 2023 disinflation.
M2 / GDP Ratio (1959–2026)
The “monetization ratio” — circulating money vs real output. Jumped from ~70% to ~90% in 2020-2021, the largest leap since WWII.
Fed Balance Sheet / GDP Ratio (2003–2026)
The Fed’s footprint relative to the economy — from ~6% pre-2008 to ~36% at the 2022 peak. Contextualizes QE/QT cycles by economy size.
Treasury General Account (TGA)
The US government’s checking account at the Fed. A rising TGA drains banking liquidity; a falling one injects it.
Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP)
Parking facility for excess liquidity — peaked at $2.5T in 2022. A decline in its use means funds returning to the market.
US Bank Reserves at the Fed (2001–2026)
The foundation of the monetary system. From $45B pre-2008 to $4.2T in 2022. Determines the practical QT limit before reserve scarcity triggers stress.
Net Liquidity Index (WALCL – TGA – RRP)
Composite: the effective liquidity measure of the financial system tracked by Darius Dale, Andy Constan, and Raoul Pal. Computed by Eco3min from three distinct FRED series.
Credit & Financial Conditions
Corporate bond spreads, lending standards, leverage ratios, recession risk indicators, and the Chicago Fed NFCI composite index.
7 datasets · 3 studies · Weekly & quarterly updates
Credit Breaks First: The Signal That Preceded Every Equity Drawdown Since 1997
In 8 major equity market dislocations since 1997, High Yield credit spreads started widening before the S&P 500 peaked — median lead time: 7 months. 1,525 weekly observations.
The 0.5 NFCI Rule: Auditing the Financial Stress Threshold
Is the 0.5 NFCI threshold reliable as a systemic financial stress indicator? Comparative audit NFCI vs VIX over 50 years of stress episodes, with false-positive testing and lead time to recessions.
The BBB-ification of Corporate America (1996–2026)
BBB-rated bonds went from 27% to ~50% of the US IG corporate market in 30 years. Testing the BBB-cliff thesis on the 2020 COVID shock and analysis of forward S&P 500 returns by concentration regime. 351 observations.
US High Yield Credit Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Real-time assessment of corporate default risk. Peaks above 800 bps have historically coincided with recessions.
Investment Grade BBB Spread (BAMLC0A4CBBB)
The IG/HY frontier — the BBB tier is the most watched because a downgrade to BB triggers massive forced selling.
Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (1971–2026)
105-indicator composite from the Chicago Fed — the most comprehensive measure of US financial conditions. Negative = loose, positive = tight.
US Bank Lending Standards — SLOOS (1990–2026)
Net percentage of banks tightening standards on C&I loans. Tightening > +30% has preceded every US recession since 1990.
Credit Spread vs VIX Divergence (1997–2026)
Cross-asset risk consistency test. When HY spreads and VIX diverge, one market is wrong about risk — it ends in a correction.
US Corporate Debt to GDP (1950–2026)
Financial leverage of non-financial corporations relative to output. The upward trend since the 1980s reflects the financialization of the economy.
US Household Debt to GDP (1950–2026)
Consumer leverage — peaked at 100% before the 2008 subprime crisis, deleveraged to ~75%. The slow variable behind housing cycles.
Housing & Real Estate
Real housing prices and mortgage rates — the credit cycle as experienced by US households. The ultimate test of the monetary transmission mechanism.
2 datasets · 1 study · Monthly updates
It’s Not Prices — It’s the Rate: US Housing Affordability = 10Y Treasury
The real constraint on housing affordability isn’t nominal home prices, but the cost of credit. An in-depth analysis of how the 10-year Treasury yield drives real housing dynamics.
Data used: Real housing prices · Real mortgage rate
US Real Housing Price Index (1975–2026)
National Case-Shiller index deflated by CPI — the real measure of whether housing is truly appreciating or merely tracking inflation.
US Real Mortgage Rate (1971–2026)
30-year fixed rate minus CPI inflation — the real cost of housing credit. Negative in 2021-2022, strongly positive in 2023-2024.
Commodities, Metals & Crypto
Energy (nominal and real), industrial and precious metals, weighted dollar index, alternative monetary assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum) — and the dollar’s role in global crises.
14 datasets · 3 studies · Weekly & monthly updates
The US Dollar at the Onset of Global Crises (1973–2023)
Position of the trade-weighted dollar, Fed Funds rate, and real interest rates at the starting point of 18 major global crises. Regime classification and structured dataset.
Data: Dollar Index · Fed Funds · Real rates
The Oil Burden Index: Why 4% of GDP Is the Recession Threshold (1970–2026)
Every major recession since 1970 was preceded by a surge in nominal oil spending exceeding 4% of US GDP. Analysis of the 1973, 1979, 2008, and 2022 shocks.
The WTI–Brent Spread (1987–2026): It Was Always Oklahoma, Not the Middle East
In 39 years of WTI–Brent data, the spread never exceeded $13 outside a single 60-month window (2011–2015) — when US shale crude found itself trapped at Cushing. It was logistics, not geopolitics.
US Dollar Index — DTWEXBGS (2006–2026)
The Fed’s Broad Dollar index — 26 currencies including emerging markets. More representative than the DXY.
WTI Crude Oil Price (1986–2026)
The US energy benchmark — both cause and consequence of macro cycles. Over 10,000 daily observations.
Brent Crude Oil Price (1987–2026)
The global energy benchmark — reference price for ~2/3 of crude traded worldwide.
Real Oil Price — WTI CPI-Adjusted (1986–2026)
WTI deflated by CPI — the true economic burden of energy. The 1980 oil shock was more extreme in real terms than the 2008 nominal peak.
Natural Gas Price — Henry Hub (1997–2026)
Henry Hub natural gas spot price in USD per million BTU — US reference for electricity and heating.
Copper Price History (1986–2026)
“Dr. Copper” — the industrial metal that diagnoses global economic health. Strong correlation with global GDP growth.
Gold Price History (1968–2026)
Nominal gold price in USD — the classic monetary metal and global store-of-value reference.
Real Gold Price (CPI-Adjusted)
Gold deflated by CPI — the true purchasing power of the yellow metal across inflation regimes.
Silver Price History (1968–2026)
Silver spot price in USD — the hybrid metal at the intersection of monetary and industrial demand.
Gold/Oil Ratio
Relative valuation of the monetary metal vs energy — a cross-commodity regime indicator.
Copper/Gold Ratio
Industrial metal vs monetary metal — a useful barometer for growth expectations and cyclical risk appetite.
S&P 500 / Gold Ratio
US equity valuation expressed in gold — eliminates the monetary illusion of nominal prices.
Bitcoin Price History (2010–2026)
Bitcoin price in USD since inception. The leading cryptocurrency as an emerging macro asset — shifting correlations with liquidity, real rates, and risk-on.
Ethereum Price History (2015–2026)
Ethereum price in USD since launch. The second major crypto asset, useful for cross-crypto comparisons and digital risk premium analysis.
Research Index — 31 evergreen macro-financial studies
Original analytical research combining multiple datasets, proprietary regime classifications, and downloadable data. Each study provides a framework unavailable through traditional institutional sources. For topical research on current macro events, see the Macro Watch.
The Liquidity Illusion — Net Liquidity Index (2003–present)
The Fed withdrew $2.14T via QT. ON RRP returned $2.37T. Net liquidity barely moved. 1,212 weekly observations with “stealth easing” regime classification.
The Great Offset: ON RRP vs QT
The Fed destroyed $1.5T via QT. Yet risk assets climbed. The ON RRP facility drainage acted as synthetic quantitative easing.
Debt Ceiling: TGA Drainage = Liquidity Injection
Why the US government’s cash shortage is paradoxically bullish for risk assets, and why debt ceiling resolutions trigger withdrawals.
Fed Balance Sheet: Detailed Operational History (2002–2026)
Operational decomposition of the Fed balance sheet over 24 years: Treasuries, MBS, repo, swap lines, BTFP. Distinguishing structural QE/QT from emergency facilities.
M2 and US Inflation: Testing the Monetarist Regime (Friedman)
M2 → inflation relationship with 12–18 months lead held until ~1990 then broke. Formal test of the monetarist regime with documented structural break.
US Real Interest Rates vs CAPE Ratio (1963–present)
“Tent” relationship between real rates and equity valuations. 757 observations, Excess CAPE Yield and regime classification.
The Contrarian’s Almanac: Why Buying Fear Has Outperformed Since 1990
Buying the S&P 500 when VIX exceeds 30 has produced a median +22% 12-month return — nearly 3× the return of buying during calm periods.
Every S&P 500 Crash Since 1950
Exhaustive catalogue of every S&P 500 peak-to-trough since 1950. Distribution of durations, depths and recovery times across 75 years of cycles.
Nasdaq Falls Harder Than S&P 500 in 8 of 9 Bear Markets (1971–2026)
Average NDX/SPX ratio in bear markets: 1.63× (1.71× excluding GFC). Link to real rates only valid since 1995.
Yield Curve Inversion History (2s10s Spread)
Complete history of 10Y–2Y inversions since 1976. NBER dating, lag analysis and statistical properties.
US Real Interest Rates History (1962–present)
770 monthly observations — from +9.4% to −6.4%. Five monetary regime classifications, reproducible code and embeddable charts.
The Fed’s Track Record: 70 Years of Rate Decisions (1954–present)
The Fed has systematically raised rates too late and cut them too late. Median lag: 8 months after inflation crossed target.
The Worst Bear Market You’ve Never Heard Of (30Y Treasury)
Between 2020 and 2023, long-duration Treasury bonds suffered a 53% drop — exceeding most stock crashes.
The Hidden Tax on Safety: “Risk-Free” Destroyed More Than Most Crashes
Over long periods, staying in cash has produced deeper negative real returns than major bear markets due to inflation.
The 2-Year Treasury Leads Fed Pivots (1976–2026)
The 2-year Treasury yield peaks months before every Fed cutting cycle since 1976. 50-year replication with lag analysis.
Reverse-Engineering the NY Fed Recession Probability Model
Reconstruction of the NY Fed probit model over 35 years of daily Treasury data. T10Y3M vs T10Y2Y comparison, 1998 false positive, unresolved 2022-2024 inversion.
US Inflation Is Not Linear: 110 Years of Purchasing Power Destruction
$1 from 1913 is worth $0.03 today. Five inflation surges (1917, 1942, 1973, 1979, 2021) account for over 80% of the cumulative destruction.
US Inflation Breakeven Term Structure
Term structure analysis of inflation breakevens (5Y, 10Y, 5Y5Y forward). Detect transitory vs persistent regimes and expectation de-anchoring.
PCE vs CPI Inflation Gap (1960–2026)
Core PCE systematically 30-50 bps below core CPI. Decomposition of divergence sources and implications for the Fed’s 2% target.
WTI Shocks Amplify Existing Inflation (They Don’t Create It)
Oil shocks propagate already-elevated inflation rather than creating it. Transmission analysis on major shocks since 1973.
Core CPI vs Headline CPI: Three Episodes of Sustained Divergence
Three episodes since 1957 saw the gap exceed 2 pp. Only 1974 fully transmitted to core (+7.1 pp over 24 months). 830 monthly observations.
The Most Revised Number in Finance: NFP Revisions at Turning Points
At cycle turning points, NFP revisions averaged −68,000 per month around recession starts — the initial release systematically overstates job creation.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as a Recession Signal
60-year test of weekly claims thresholds that precede recessions. Real-time detection with 5 days of lag plus post-pandemic false-signal analysis.
Five Recession Rules Tested (1959–2026)
65 years of testing 5 real-time recession detection rules: Sahm, yield curve, claims, NFP, leading indicators. Accuracy, lag, and false positives documented.
Credit Breaks First: HY Spreads as Leading Indicator
In every equity drawdown since 1997, HY spreads widened first. Median lead: 7 months. 1,525 weekly observations.
The 0.5 NFCI Rule: Auditing the Financial Stress Threshold
Audit comparing NFCI vs VIX across 50 years of stress episodes. False-positive testing and lead-time to recessions.
The BBB-ification of Corporate America (1996–2026)
BBB went from 27% to ~50% of US IG market in 30 years. BBB-cliff thesis tested on COVID 2020 shock. 351 observations.
It’s Not Prices — It’s the Rate: Housing Affordability = 10Y
The real constraint on housing affordability isn’t nominal prices, but the cost of credit. The 10-year Treasury yield drives real housing dynamics.
The US Dollar at the Onset of Global Crises (1973–2023)
Position of the weighted dollar, Fed Funds and real rates at the start of 18 major global crises. Regime classification and structured dataset.
The Oil Burden Index: Why 4% of GDP Is the Recession Threshold
Every major recession since 1970 was preceded by a surge in nominal oil spending exceeding 4% of US GDP. 1973, 1979, 2008, 2022 shock analysis.
The WTI–Brent Spread (1987–2026): It Was Always Oklahoma
39 years of data: the spread never exceeded $13 outside a single 60-month window (2011–2015) when US shale was trapped at Cushing. Logistics, not geopolitics.
Eco3min methodology
All datasets and studies on Eco3min follow the same documented and reproducible pipeline. Open data, transparent code, automatic updates.
Data sources
Public macro series come from the FRED API (St. Louis Fed), the BLS, the IMF, the BEA, and Yale Department of Economics (Shiller). Corporate data come from the SEC EDGAR XBRL API. Crypto data come from CoinGecko. No paid sources, no proprietary scraping.
Automatic pipeline
Two Python pipelines (FRED + ECB) run via GitHub Actions every business day at 08:00 and 09:30 UTC. They generate cleaned CSV + XLSX, compute regime statistics, and update the WordPress REST API to refresh the JSON-LD dateModified. Open-source code on GitHub.
Composites & ratios
Composite series (Net Liquidity Index, Eco3min Inflation Regime Score, real Treasury yields, M2/GDP, S&P 500/M2, etc.) are computed by Eco3min from the underlying FRED series. The aggregation formula is documented in the methodology section of each dataset.
License & citation
All Eco3min datasets and studies are published under the CC BY 4.0 license. Free to use with attribution: “Eco3min Research, [year]” + link to the source page. Citation block at the bottom of this page.
Pillar guides — long-form frameworks
The Eco3min site is built around 4 pillar guides articulating the relationships between key concepts. Each pillar guide complements the data and the studies above.
📚 Inflation pillar guide
110 years of US inflation: regimes, transmission mechanisms, measures, and reading grid. Anchored in the Eco3min Inflation Regime Score.
📚 Commodities pillar guide
Energy, metals, agricultural commodities — and their transmission channels into macro cycles. The links between commodity prices and recessions.
📚 Monetary policy pillar guide
The Fed’s tools, the dual mandate, the QE/QT cycle, the transmission to financial conditions and the real economy. Includes the dollar in the global system.
📚 Financial markets pillar guide
Equities, bonds, volatility, credit cycle — and how these markets interact across business cycles. Links to indicators above.
🇫🇷 French version available: all Eco3min datasets and studies have a French equivalent. Read this hub in French at /donnees-analyses-macro-financieres/.
All macroeconomic datasets (A–Z)
Complete alphabetical index. Every page includes key statistics, an interactive chart, CSV & Excel download, Python/R code examples, and related research.
- Big Tech CapEx as % of Revenue (2015–2026)
- Bitcoin Price History (2010–2026)
- Brent Crude Oil Price (1987–2026)
- Copper/Gold Ratio
- Copper Price History (1986–2026)
- Core CPI Inflation (1957–2026)
- Core PCE Inflation (1959–2026)
- Credit Spread vs VIX Divergence (1997–2026)
- Curve Slope — 10Y Treasury vs Fed Funds (1954–2026)
- ⭐ Eco3min US Inflation Regime Score
- Ethereum Price History (2015–2026)
- Excess CAPE Yield (1881–2026)
- Fed Balance Sheet — WALCL (2003–2026)
- Fed Balance Sheet / GDP Ratio (2003–2026)
- Federal Funds Rate (1954–2026)
- Financial Conditions Index — NFCI (1971–2026)
- Gold/Oil Ratio
- Gold Price History (1968–2026)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (1948–2026)
- M2 / GDP Ratio (1959–2026)
- Mortgage Spread — 30Y vs 10Y Treasury (1971–2026)
- Nasdaq Composite — daily (1971–2026)
- Natural Gas Price — Henry Hub (1997–2026)
- Overnight Reverse Repo — ON RRP (2003–2026)
- Real 2-Year Treasury Yield (1976–2026)
- Real Corporate Bond Yield — Moody’s BAA (1953–2026)
- Real Crude Oil Price — WTI CPI-Adjusted (1986–2026)
- Real Federal Funds Rate (1954–2026)
- Real Gold Price (CPI-Adjusted)
- Real 10-Year Treasury Yield (1962–2026)
- Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (1959–2026)
- Silver Price History (1968–2026)
- S&P 500 CAPE Ratio (1881–2026)
- S&P 500 Dividend Yield (1871–2026)
- S&P 500 Earnings Yield (1871–2026)
- S&P 500 / Gold Ratio
- S&P 500 Historical Returns (1990–2026)
- S&P 500 / M2 Ratio (1959–2026)
- S&P 500 P/E Ratio (1871–2026)
- S&P 500 — daily price (1950–2026)
- S&P 500 vs Fed Balance Sheet (2003–2026)
- Treasury General Account — TGA (2015–2026)
- US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation (T10YIE)
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield (1962–2026)
- US 2-Year Treasury Yield (1976–2026)
- US 3-Month Treasury Bill (1954–2026)
- US 30-Year Mortgage Rate (1971–2026)
- US 30-Year Treasury Yield (1977–2026)
- US 5-Year Breakeven Inflation (T5YIE)
- US Bank Lending Standards — SLOOS (1990–2026)
- US Bank Reserves at the Fed (2001–2026)
- US Consumer Sentiment — U. of Michigan (1952–2026)
- US Corporate Debt / GDP (1950–2026)
- US CPI Inflation History (1914–2026)
- US Dollar Index — DTWEXBGS (2006–2026)
- US Equity Risk Premium (1871–2026)
- US Federal Debt / GDP (1966–2026)
- US GDP Growth Rate (1947–2026)
- US Household Debt / GDP (1950–2026)
- US High Yield Credit Spread (1997–2026)
- US Industrial Production Index (1919–2026)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (1967–2026)
- US Investment Grade BBB Spread (1997–2026)
- US M2 Growth Rate — YoY (1960–2026)
- US M2 Money Supply (1959–2026)
- US Net Liquidity Index — WALCL–TGA–RRP (2003–2026)
- US Nonfarm Payrolls — NFP (1939–2026)
- US PCE Inflation (1959–2026)
- US Personal Savings Rate (1959–2026)
- US Producer Price Index — PPI (1913–2026)
- US Real GDP Level (1947–2026)
- US Real Housing Price Index (1975–2026)
- US Real Mortgage Rate (1971–2026)
- US Real Wage Growth (1964–2026)
- US Term Premium (10-Year Treasury)
- US Unemployment Rate (1948–2026)
- VIX Volatility Index — daily (1990–2026)
- WTI Crude Oil Price (1986–2026)
- Yield Curve — 10Y–2Y Spread (T10Y2Y)
- Yield Curve — 10Y–3M Spread (T10Y3M)
Frequently asked questions
What’s the difference between this hub and the Macro Watch?
This hub aggregates the evergreen resources: 79 macro-financial datasets (updated daily via FRED) and 31 research studies developing reference analytical frameworks (yield curve, real rates, liquidity illusion, oil burden, NY Fed probit recession model, BBB-ification, etc.). The Macro Watch publishes topical studies every Tuesday, anchored on a recent market or policy event and placed in their long historical context. The two layers are complementary.
What is the Eco3min US Inflation Regime Score?
The Eco3min Score is a monthly proprietary composite indicator classifying the US inflation regime across five dimensions: CPI trend, core dynamic, market expectations, wage pressure, and monetary signal. Its methodology is open and reproducible. It sits within the analytical framework developed in the complete US inflation guide.
What’s the best leading indicator of a US recession?
The yield curve (10Y–2Y spread) has preceded every US recession since 1976 with a 6 to 24 month lead. High Yield credit spreads have also widened before every major equity drawdown since 1997, with a median lead of 7 months. The study Five Recession Rules Tested empirically compares accuracy, lag and false positives across five distinct rules, and the NY Fed probit model reconstructs the official probability over 35 years of daily Treasury data.
Where can I download free macroeconomic datasets in CSV?
This hub provides 79 free macroeconomic datasets in CSV and Excel formats, covering inflation, interest rates, equity markets, liquidity, credit conditions, housing, commodities, and employment. All data come from FRED, BLS, IMF and BEA, are automatically updated, and licensed under CC BY 4.0.
What is the Net Liquidity Index and how is it computed?
The Net Liquidity Index equals total Fed assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) minus the reverse repo facility (ON RRP). It measures the effective liquidity of the financial system and is tracked by macro analysts such as Darius Dale and Raoul Pal. The full weekly dataset since 2003 is available — computed by Eco3min from three distinct FRED series.
How does M2 money supply growth predict inflation?
The M2 growth rate has historically led CPI inflation by 12 to 18 months. The unprecedented +27% YoY growth in February 2021 preceded 9.1% CPI inflation in June 2022. The subsequent contraction to −4.7% — the first sustained M2 drop since the 1930s — foreshadowed the disinflation that followed. The study M2 and US Inflation: Testing the Monetarist Regime documents the breakdown of this relationship after ~1990 and its post-2020 resurgence.
What’s the difference between CPI and PCE inflation?
CPI uses fixed consumption baskets while PCE uses dynamically updated weights that account for consumption substitution. Core PCE — the Fed’s official 2% target measure — typically sits 30 to 50 basis points below core CPI. The study PCE vs CPI Inflation Gap decomposes the sources of this divergence (weights, formula, scope). To go further: complete US inflation guide.
What is the real interest rate and why does it matter?
The real interest rate is the nominal yield minus inflation. When negative, lenders effectively pay borrowers — encouraging leverage and risk-taking. The real 10-year Treasury yield has ranged from +9.4% (Volcker era, 1982) to −6.4% (2022 inflation shock).
Cite this data
If you use Eco3min datasets in your research, articles or analyses, please cite them as follows:
Licensed under CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution. Individual citations available on each data page.
Last updated — 15 May 2026
Disclaimer – Financial Information: The analyses, commentary, and content published on eco3min.fr are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions involve risk and are the sole responsibility of the reader.