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Heatmap of year-over-year US CPI inflation in five disinflation cycles since 1948, each row aligned on its own trough month. A divergent blue-to-red color scale encodes the YoY CPI level (blue for deflationary or below-target, near-white at 3%, red for above-target). The bottom row showing the current 2024-26 episode stops at +11 months with a pale-gray "no data yet" zone for months beyond March 2026.

📄 Research study · May 11, 2026

US CPI Re-Acceleration Episodes Since 1948: When Disinflation Didn’t Stick

Since 1948, US headline CPI has fallen below 3% year-over-year and then re-accelerated meaningfully on four occasions: post-war / Korean War (1948–51), first oil shock (1970–74), second oil shock (1976–80), and the China-driven commodities cycle (2000–05).

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Last updated — 12 May 2026