Mortgage Spread — Daily CSV Download (Mortgage vs Treasury Spread)
The spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield measures the credit and liquidity premium in the housing market. Normally 150–200 bps, the spread widened to 300+ bps in 2022–2023 as the Fed’s MBS runoff removed the largest buyer from the market. This spread directly determines affordability — and its compression or expansion has outsized effects on housing demand.
Dataset: Mortgage Spread — 30Y Mortgage vs 10Y Treasury (1971–2026) · Updated —
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Source: FRED series MORTGAGE30US · Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & US Treasury (DGS10) via FRED
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Mortgage Spread — 30Y Mortgage vs 10Y Treasury (1971–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Weekly |
| Period | 1971–2026 |
| Variables | date, mortgage_30y, dgs10, spread_bps |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & US Treasury (DGS10) via FRED |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
mortgage_30y | Float | 30-year fixed mortgage rate (%) |
dgs10 | Float | 10-year Treasury yield (%) |
spread_bps | Float | Mortgage spread in basis points |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The underlying data is available from FRED under series code MORTGAGE30US:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=MORTGAGE30US
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/mortgage-spread.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/mortgage-spread.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df["mortgage_30y"].describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/mortgage-spread.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df$mortgage_30y)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRED: MORTGAGE30US) minus 10-year Treasury yield (FRED: DGS10), converted to basis points. The spread captures the MBS market premium, prepayment risk, and credit risk built into mortgage pricing.
This dataset is updated weekly via automated pull from the FRED API.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
The mortgage spread is a direct transmission channel from the Fed’s balance sheet to housing. When the Fed buys MBS, the spread compresses; when it runs off MBS, the spread widens — affecting millions of potential homebuyers regardless of what the 10Y yield does.
- 30-Year Mortgage Rate — The mortgage rate — sum of Treasury yield + spread
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield — The risk-free base rate for mortgage pricing
- US Real Mortgage Rate — Inflation-adjusted cost of housing credit
- US Real Housing Price Index — Housing prices that the spread influences
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL) — MBS holdings that suppress/expand the spread
Related Research
The 2022–2023 spread widening was unprecedented in the modern era and directly attributable to the Fed’s MBS runoff — a key component of the liquidity story told in “The Liquidity Illusion.”
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & US Treasury (DGS10) via FRED