Real Corporate Bond Yield — Daily CSV Download (BAA Inflation-Adjusted Yield)
The real corporate bond yield — Moody’s BAA yield minus CPI inflation — measures the true cost of long-term borrowing for US corporations at the lower end of investment grade. When positive and rising, capital allocation becomes more disciplined; when negative, corporations are effectively being paid to borrow, incentivizing leverage and buybacks.
Dataset: Real Corporate Bond Yield — Moody’s BAA (1953–2026) · Updated —
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Source: FRED series BAA · Moody’s (BAA) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the real 10-year Treasury yield and the high yield credit spreads helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Real Corporate Bond Yield — Moody’s BAA (1953–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1953–2026 |
| Variables | date, baa_yield, cpi_yoy, real_baa_yield |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Moody’s (BAA) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
baa_yield | Float | Moody’s BAA corporate bond yield (%) |
cpi_yoy | Float | CPI year-over-year inflation (%) |
real_baa_yield | Float | Real BAA yield: BAA minus CPI YoY (%) |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The underlying data is available from FRED under series code BAA:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=BAA
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-corporate-bond-yield.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-corporate-bond-yield.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df["baa_yield"].describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-corporate-bond-yield.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df$baa_yield)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
Moody’s BAA seasoned corporate bond yield (FRED: BAA) minus CPI YoY inflation (FRED: CPIAUCSL). BAA is the lowest investment-grade rating — the boundary before high yield.
This dataset is updated monthly via automated pull from the FRED API.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
The real corporate bond yield combines two forces: the real risk-free rate and the credit spread. It captures the full cost of capital for American businesses — and when it turns deeply negative, capital misallocation follows.
- Real 10-Year Treasury Yield — The risk-free real rate — the base for corporate real yields
- Investment Grade BBB Spread — The spread component on top of Treasuries
- US High Yield Credit Spread — Below-IG default risk pricing
- US Corporate Debt-to-GDP — The leverage that this yield finances
- Real Federal Funds Rate — Short-term real rate that anchors the curve
Related Research
Real corporate yields at the BAA boundary are especially informative — they sit just above high yield, where “fallen angel” dynamics can trigger forced selling cascades.
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Moody’s (BAA) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED