US Real Mortgage Rate — Daily CSV Download (Inflation-Adjusted Mortgage Rate)
The real 30-year mortgage rate — nominal rate minus CPI inflation — is the true cost of housing credit. When negative (as in 2021–2022), homebuyers are effectively being paid to borrow, fueling demand and price appreciation. When sharply positive (as in 2023–2024), housing demand contracts. This metric, not the nominal rate, determines affordability over the life of a mortgage.
Dataset: US Real Mortgage Rate (1971–2026) · Updated —
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Source: FRED series MORTGAGE30US · Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the nominal mortgage rate and the real housing prices helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | US Real Mortgage Rate (1971–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1971–2026 |
| Variables | date, mortgage_30y, cpi_yoy, real_mortgage_rate |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
mortgage_30y | Float | 30-year fixed mortgage rate (%) |
cpi_yoy | Float | CPI year-over-year inflation (%) |
real_mortgage_rate | Float | Real mortgage rate: MORTGAGE30US minus CPI YoY (%) |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The underlying data is available from FRED under series code MORTGAGE30US:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=MORTGAGE30US
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-mortgage-rate.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-mortgage-rate.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df["mortgage_30y"].describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/real-mortgage-rate.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df$mortgage_30y)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
30-year fixed mortgage rate (FRED: MORTGAGE30US) minus CPI YoY inflation (FRED: CPIAUCSL). Ex-post real rate using realized inflation.
This dataset is updated monthly via automated pull from the FRED API.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
The real mortgage rate is the most consequential rate for American households. It determines whether a 30-year mortgage erodes purchasing power (negative real rate) or preserves it (positive real rate). The regime shift from −4% in 2022 to +4% in 2023 was one of the largest in history.
- 30-Year Mortgage Rate — The nominal rate from which this is derived
- US Real Housing Price Index — Housing prices that respond to real mortgage rates
- Mortgage Spread — The credit premium component
- Real 10-Year Treasury Yield — The real risk-free rate that anchors mortgage pricing
- US Household Debt-to-GDP — Household leverage driven by mortgage costs
Related Research
Real mortgage rates connect the macro real rate regime to household balance sheets. When the real rate regime shifts, housing is typically the first asset class to respond.
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US) & BLS (CPIAUCSL) via FRED