The Sahm Rule
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, is a real-time recession indicator based on the unemployment rate. It triggers when the 3-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months. Every triggering since 1970 has correctly identified a recession — with zero false positives in the historical record.
Dataset: Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (1959–2026) · Updated 2026-03-01
Loading FRED data…
Source: FRED series SAHMREALTIME · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Macro Takeaway
The Sahm Rule has correctly identified every US recession since 1970 with a perfect record — 0.50pp threshold crossed, recession confirmed. Its power comes from a structural feature of labor markets: unemployment is asymmetric. It rises slowly during expansions and surges during recessions. Once the rate begins climbing from its trough, the self-reinforcing dynamics of layoffs → reduced spending → more layoffs almost always push it further.
The indicator briefly triggered in mid-2024 (reaching 0.53pp), sparking a significant market reaction — though this occurrence may prove to be the first false positive in the indicator’s history if no recession materializes. The unusual circumstances — immigration-driven labor force expansion inflating the unemployment rate — highlight both the power and limitations of any single-variable indicator. Cross-reference with initial jobless claims and credit spreads for a more robust signal.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Sahm Rule Recession Indicator |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1959–2026 |
| Variables | date, sahm_indicator |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | FRED series SAHMREALTIME — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date | Observation date |
sahm_indicator | Float | Sahm Rule real-time recession indicator — when the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more from its low in the prior 12 months, a recession has started. |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The raw data is available via FRED under code SAHMREALTIME:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SAHMREALTIME
The Eco3min version provides a clean, analysis-ready format with consistent column names, pre-calculated derived metrics where applicable, and both CSV and Excel downloads.
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/sahm-rule-indicator.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd
url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/sahm-rule-indicator.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url)
print(df.head())
print(f"Latest value: {df['sahm_indicator'].iloc[-1]:.2f}")
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/sahm-rule-indicator.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df$sahm_indicator)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Historical Regimes
1959–1969 — Low volatility. The indicator remained near zero during the longest post-war expansion. The 1960–61 recession triggered the rule, but the signal was mild.
1970–1982 — Repeated triggers. Four recessions in 12 years produced clear Sahm Rule signals, each time with the indicator surging well above 0.50pp. The 1973–75 and 1981–82 recessions produced readings above 2.0pp.
1983–2007 — Great Moderation. Only two triggers (1990, 2001), both relatively mild by historical standards. The indicator spent most of this period near zero, reflecting historically low unemployment volatility.
2008–2009 — GFC. The indicator surged to 4.0pp — the highest reading in the dataset — reflecting the catastrophic labor market deterioration of the Great Recession.
2020 — COVID. The sharpest and most extreme trigger in history (>10pp), but also the fastest reversal, as the unemployment spike was artificially induced by lockdowns rather than organic economic deterioration.
2024 — Ambiguous trigger. The indicator briefly exceeded 0.50pp in mid-2024, sparking recession fears. Whether this represents a genuine recession signal or the first false positive remains an active research question.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
- US Unemployment Rate — The input variable for the Sahm Rule
- Initial Jobless Claims — Higher-frequency labor deterioration signal
- Nonfarm Payrolls — Employment level cross-reference
- Yield Curve 10Y–2Y Spread — Alternative recession signal — financial markets
Related Research
Frequently Asked Questions
Has the Sahm Rule ever produced a false positive?
In the historical record from 1959 to 2023, the Sahm Rule has never produced a false positive — every trigger above 0.50pp has coincided with an NBER-dated recession. The 2024 trigger is being closely watched as a potential first exception, driven by immigration-related labor force effects rather than traditional cyclical deterioration.
How do I download the Sahm Rule recession indicator dataset as CSV?
You can download the complete dataset directly from this page in CSV or Excel format — no signup or API key needed. The CSV is also available as a direct URL (https://eco3min.fr/dataset/sahm-rule-indicator.csv) for use in Python, R, or any data tool.
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository. Explore all available datasets including inflation, interest rates, equity returns, credit spreads, and currency indicators.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED series SAHMREALTIME
Suggested Citation
Last updated — 13 April 2026