Yield Curve Slope — Daily CSV Download (10Y vs Fed Funds Spread)
The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the Federal Funds rate captures the full slope of the policy-to-market rate curve. Unlike the 10Y–2Y spread, this measure directly compares the Fed’s overnight rate with the market’s long-term rate — revealing how much the term premium is compensating for duration risk above the policy rate. Inversions (negative spread) signal that the market expects the Fed to cut — a classic pre-recession pattern.
Dataset: Yield Curve Slope — 10Y Treasury vs Fed Funds Rate (1954–2026) · Updated —
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Source: FRED series GS10 · US Treasury (GS10) & Federal Reserve (FEDFUNDS) via FRED
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the 10Y–2Y yield curve spread and the 10Y–3M yield curve spread helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Yield Curve Slope — 10Y Treasury vs Fed Funds Rate (1954–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1954–2026 |
| Variables | date, gs10, fedfunds, spread_10y_ff |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | US Treasury (GS10) & Federal Reserve (FEDFUNDS) via FRED |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
gs10 | Float | 10-year Treasury yield (%) |
fedfunds | Float | Effective Federal Funds rate (%) |
spread_10y_ff | Float | Spread: GS10 minus FEDFUNDS (percentage points) |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The underlying data is available from FRED under series code GS10:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GS10
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-slope-10y-ff.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-slope-10y-ff.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df["gs10"].describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/yield-curve-slope-10y-ff.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df$gs10)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
10-year Treasury yield (FRED: GS10, monthly average) minus effective Federal Funds rate (FRED: FEDFUNDS). Unlike the 10Y–2Y spread (T10Y2Y), this captures the full policy-to-market gap.
This dataset is updated monthly via automated pull from the FRED API.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
The 10Y–FF spread provides a direct read of the term premium above the policy rate. Combined with the 10Y–2Y and 10Y–3M spreads, it completes the yield curve slope analysis across different tenors — each capturing a slightly different aspect of recession risk and rate expectations.
- Yield Curve 10Y–2Y Spread (T10Y2Y) — The most tracked yield curve measure
- Yield Curve 10Y–3M Spread (T10Y3M) — NY Fed’s preferred recession input
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield — The long end of the spread
- Federal Funds Rate — The short end of the spread
- Real Federal Funds Rate — Inflation-adjusted policy rate
Related Research
This spread has inverted before every US recession since the 1960s. Its longer history (back to 1954) provides more inversion episodes than the 10Y–2Y spread (available only since 1976).
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- US Treasury (GS10) & Federal Reserve (FEDFUNDS) via FRED