Copper-Gold Ratio: Industrial Metal Versus Safe Haven, Monthly Since 1960

The Copper-Gold Ratio is an Eco3min monthly composite that divides the price of copper — an industrial metal driven by manufacturing and construction demand — by the price of gold, a non-yielding safe-haven asset. Calculated as copper (USD/lb) divided by gold (USD/oz) and scaled by 1000 for readability, the Copper-Gold Ratio runs monthly from January 1960 to present. When copper outperforms gold, the market is pricing growth and risk-on flows; when gold outperforms copper, the market is pricing slowdown or systemic fear. The ratio has historically tracked the direction of Treasury yields and PMI readings closely enough to be cited as a cross-asset macro signal in institutional research.

Dataset: Copper-Gold Ratio (1960–2026) · Updated 2026-05-01

Macro Takeaway

Construction & Components

The Copper-Gold Ratio is a simple price ratio between two commodities measured in different units, with a scaling factor applied for readability. No deflation or seasonal adjustment is used.

Formula:

Copper-Gold Ratio = (Copper Price [USD/lb] / Gold Price [USD/oz]) × 1000

Components:

• Copper price — FRED series PCOPPUSDM, monthly Producer Price Index for copper from the IMF Primary Commodity Prices database, USD per metric ton (converted to USD/lb in the composite). Source frequency: monthly.
• Gold price — World Bank Pink Sheet monthly gold price, USD per troy ounce. London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) PM fixing, averaged across the month. Source frequency: monthly.

Frequency reconciliation: Both components are natively monthly, so no interpolation or aggregation step is required. Observations are matched on month-end timestamp and the ratio is computed directly. The ×1000 scaling produces values that read in the 100–500 range across most of the sample, more interpretable than the raw small fraction.

Coverage: January 1960 to present. The start date is constrained by the earliest joint availability of monthly copper and gold price series in the IMF and World Bank databases. Both series predate FRED’s electronic distribution; the 1960 starting point is sufficient to span all post-Bretton-Woods commodity cycles.

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-gold-ratio.csv

This URL returns the complete pre-computed ratio in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool. Note that the gold price component is sourced from the World Bank Pink Sheet rather than FRED, so no single FRED CSV reproduces the full composite.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-gold-ratio.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df["copper_gold_ratio"].describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-gold-ratio.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$copper_gold_ratio)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

The Copper-Gold Ratio is recomputed monthly by an Eco3min pipeline that pulls PCOPPUSDM from the FRED API and gold prices from the World Bank Commodities Pink Sheet release. The copper figure is converted from USD per metric ton to USD per pound using the standard 2204.62 lb/MT factor. The two series are then matched on month-end and divided, with the ×1000 scaling applied. The pipeline runs after each World Bank Pink Sheet release (typically the first week of each month).

Both inputs are monthly averages of daily spot prices, which smooths intra-month volatility but means the composite cannot detect short-lived dislocations.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

Latency for the Copper-Gold Ratio is dictated by the slower of the two components, typically the World Bank Pink Sheet (~1-week lag after month-end). The FRED-distributed IMF copper series is usually available within a few days of the same window.

Both components are revised infrequently, but spot-price benchmarks (LBMA PM fixing for gold, LME or Comex settlement for copper) can be re-stated for quality control purposes. The Eco3min pipeline back-stamps any such revisions to keep the composite consistent with the latest source release.

A daily-frequency Copper-Gold Ratio can be constructed from Comex futures or LBMA gold fixings combined with LME copper, but it diverges from the monthly composite during high-volatility weeks. The monthly version is the standard reference used in published macro research and is more comparable across long-horizon backtests.

What This Index Captures (And What It Doesn’t)

The Copper-Gold Ratio is a parsimonious cross-asset macro signal — a single number that summarizes the relative pricing of two metals with opposite cyclical exposures. Its appeal is its simplicity; its limitations come from the same source.

What it captures:

• The relative pricing of cyclical (copper) versus defensive (gold) commodity demand
• Coincident shifts in global growth expectations as priced by physical-commodity markets
• Long-horizon comparability across commodity supercycles, since both metals span the same historical window
• A simple cross-check on whether Treasury yields, equity-cyclicals, and PMI readings are pointing in consistent directions

What it does NOT capture (common misinterpretations):

• A direct timing signal. Historical correlation with Treasury yields is well-documented but unstable across regimes. Periods of structural divergence (2011–2015, 2020–2022) are not rare and can persist for years.
• Pure growth expectations. Copper prices are influenced by Chinese inventory and stimulus cycles, supply-side shocks (Chilean strikes, Peruvian disruption), and the energy transition demand for electrification. Gold prices reflect real rates, dollar strength, and central-bank reserve flows. The ratio mixes all of these.
• Equity-market direction. The ratio is a commodity-derived signal, not an equity indicator. Mapping it onto sector rotations or risk-on/risk-off equity flows is an inferential step, not a direct read.
• Causal information. The Copper-Gold Ratio is a price ratio, not a forecast. It coincides with growth signals rather than leading them — it tells you what is priced now, not what will happen next.

The Copper-Gold Ratio is best used as one cross-asset confirmation among several in a broader macro-regime framework, not as a standalone allocation signal.

Historical Regimes

The Copper-Gold Ratio spans more than six decades of post-Bretton-Woods commodity history. Regime classification is approximate, since both metals exhibit long cycles with overlapping drivers. This question is examined in copper and oil as macro bellwethers.

• 1960–1970 — Bretton Woods anchor. Gold pegged at USD 35/oz; the ratio was almost entirely a copper-price story, with industrial demand from US and European reconstruction driving cyclical highs.
• 1971–1980 — Gold unpegging and stagflation. Gold price exploded after the Nixon shock; the Copper-Gold Ratio collapsed to historical lows as gold appreciation outpaced copper. Coincided with the 1970s stagflation episode.
• 1981–1999 — Disinflation-era recovery. Gold declined for two decades while copper recovered intermittently; the ratio rose gradually to multi-decade highs by the late 1990s, supported by US-led tech-cycle growth.
• 2003–2008 — China supercycle. Copper appreciated dramatically as Chinese infrastructure investment surged; the ratio rose to a generational high. Gold also rose but more slowly — copper outperformance was structural.
• 2008–2009 — GFC collapse. The ratio fell sharply in late 2008 as copper collapsed and gold held up. Among the cleanest regime transitions in the series.
• 2011–2019 — Post-crisis range. The ratio oscillated in a narrow band as both metals traded sideways relative to each other. Period of mild divergence with Treasury yields.
• 2020–2022 — Reflation-then-fear. Sharp drop in March 2020, sharp recovery on stimulus and the green-energy demand narrative, then renewed weakness as China stimulus disappointed in 2022.
• 2023–2026 — Electrification-versus-fear tension. The ratio has reflected two opposing forces: structural copper demand from electrification and EVs versus persistent gold strength tied to central-bank reserve diversification and elevated geopolitical risk.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

The Copper-Gold Ratio sits within a broader commodity-and-growth complex. Cross-checking with individual commodity prices and the dollar-cycle helps isolate which component is driving any given regime shift.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• IMF Primary Commodity Prices, Global Price of Copper (FRED: PCOPPUSDM)
• World Bank Commodities Price Data (Pink Sheet), Gold price, USD/oz

Dataset Reference

Eco3min Research. (2026). Copper-Gold Ratio (1960–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/copper-gold-ratio-dataset/