PCOPPUSDM: Monthly Global Copper Spot Price from IMF via FRED (1986–2026)

PCOPPUSDM tracks the monthly global price of copper in US dollars per pound, sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s International Financial Statistics and distributed through FRED since January 1986 — roughly 480 monthly observations. PCOPPUSDM reflects the monthly average of the London Metal Exchange (LME) settlement price and serves as the standard reference for industrial metal economics. Often nicknamed “Dr. Copper” for its perceived ability to diagnose global manufacturing health, the series is widely used in business-cycle forecasting and energy-transition demand modeling.

Dataset: Copper Price History (1986–2026) · Updated 2026-03-01

Source: FRED series PCOPPUSDM · IMF — International Financial Statistics via FRED

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying data is available from FRED under series code PCOPPUSDM:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=PCOPPUSDM

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-price.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-price.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df["copper_usd_lb"].describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/copper-price.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$copper_usd_lb)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

PCOPPUSDM reflects the monthly average of London Metal Exchange (LME) copper settlement prices, compiled and published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the International Financial Statistics (IFS) commodity series. The IMF converts the LME native quote (USD per metric tonne) to USD per pound for the IFS commodity-price tables. The series begins in January 1986 and is published with a 1- to 2-month lag.

FRED ingests the IFS feed and the Eco3min pipeline pulls PCOPPUSDM daily via the FRED API. Values are nominal USD, not seasonally adjusted, and not adjusted for inflation. The monthly granularity smooths daily LME volatility — users requiring daily data must source LME or COMEX HG directly.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

PCOPPUSDM is sourced from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics database and distributed via FRED. The series reflects the monthly average of LME copper settlement prices.

• Release latency. The IMF publishes commodity prices with a 1- to 2-month lag (a given month’s average appears in the IFS database the following month at the earliest). FRED ingests the IFS feed and Eco3min refreshes PCOPPUSDM via daily pull — meaning the most recent monthly observation typically lands in the dataset 4–8 weeks after the calendar month closes.
• Revisions policy. Monthly averages of daily LME settlements are generally not revised, but the IMF may restate historical values if an LME pricing-window correction is applied. Such restatements are uncommon and small in magnitude. Monthly granularity smooths out daily volatility — users requiring daily data must source LME or COMEX directly.
• Alternative sources. The London Metal Exchange (LME) provides daily settlement and intraday tick data under paid licenses. COMEX copper futures (Bloomberg HG1, CME ticker HG) offer a US-dollar-denominated US-settled alternative with its own term-structure dynamics. Bloomberg’s LMCADS03 ticker and the BIS commodity database publish institutional-grade LME references with paid access.
• Known gaps. Monthly granularity only. No daily observations. Pre-1986 history can be reconstructed from earlier IFS series or LME historical archives but is not part of PCOPPUSDM directly. Currency is USD per pound throughout — note that LME native quoting is USD per metric tonne (1 metric tonne ≈ 2,204.6 pounds).

For macro modeling, verify the latest observation date before joining PCOPPUSDM to monthly industrial production or PMI series — the IMF’s 4–8 week lag can produce stale readings if dates are not aligned explicitly.

Common Pitfalls When Using PCOPPUSDM

PCOPPUSDM is one of the most widely cited industrial-metal series, but its monthly aggregation and global pricing scope produce several recurring interpretation errors.

1. Confusing PCOPPUSDM with daily LME settlement or COMEX HG. PCOPPUSDM is an IMF-published monthly average of LME settlements. Daily LME copper settlements and COMEX HG futures both exist and can show meaningful short-term divergence from the monthly average. Users running daily backtests on PCOPPUSDM are operating on smoothed monthly data and miss the intra-month volatility that drives most trading P&L. For daily analysis, LME or COMEX series are required.
2. Treating copper as a pure China demand proxy. The “Dr. Copper” framing is convenient but incomplete. PCOPPUSDM reacts to USD strength, real interest rates, energy-transition orders (EVs, grid build-out), and supply-side disruptions in Chile and Peru (which together produce ~40% of global copper). Attributing every copper move to Chinese manufacturing data misses these channels and produces misleading conclusions during USD strength regimes or major supply shocks.
3. Reading nominal copper levels across decades without real adjustment. PCOPPUSDM is quoted in nominal USD. A $4/lb level in 2008 is not directly comparable to $4/lb in 2024 — both USD inflation and global production cost structures have shifted. Joint analysis with US CPI and the dollar index is required for cross-decade comparison.
4. Ignoring the structural demand shift from the energy transition. Copper-intensive technologies (battery EVs, renewable generation, grid transmission upgrades) have added a structural demand floor since approximately 2020 that prior cyclical regimes did not face. Treating PCOPPUSDM cycles as purely demand-cyclical without accounting for this structural channel can produce overconfident mean-reversion predictions.

Historical Regimes

PCOPPUSDM’s 1986–2026 history decomposes into six structural regimes, each driven by distinct combinations of global demand, supply constraints, and macro forces.

1986–1999 — Low and stable ($0.60–1.20/lb). A 14-year regime of subdued global manufacturing growth, ample mine supply, and stable USD conditions. PCOPPUSDM rarely traded outside this range, with brief spikes during early-1990s supply disruptions and a low point near $0.60/lb during the 1998 Asian crisis demand collapse.

2000–2008 — China supercycle. China’s WTO accession (2001) and infrastructure-led growth model drove PCOPPUSDM from $0.70/lb to a peak above $4.00/lb in mid-2008 — a roughly 6x move over eight years. This regime defined the “BRIC commodity supercycle” narrative and tracked closely with parallel moves in WTI and Brent crude.

2008–2009 — GFC collapse and recovery. PCOPPUSDM fell from $4.00/lb to $1.30/lb in six months — a 67% drawdown that exceeded most equity benchmark drawdowns. The recovery was equally rapid, driven by China’s aggressive 4 trillion RMB stimulus and global central bank coordination, reaching $4.50/lb by early 2011.

2011–2016 — Structural decline. A five-year bear market took PCOPPUSDM from $4.50/lb to ~$2.00/lb, driven by China’s slowdown, the USD strengthening cycle initiated by Fed tapering (May 2013), and the broader commodity supercycle exhaustion. The 2016 low marked the end of the cyclical bear regime.

2016–2019 — Range-bound ($2.50–3.20/lb). A three-year stabilization phase with global manufacturing modestly expanding and the 2018 US-China trade tensions creating two-way volatility. Joint reading with the US industrial production and ISM Manufacturing PMI tracks the cyclical signal closely in this regime.

2020–2026 — Post-COVID and energy-transition regime. COVID stimulus, supply-chain disruption, and structural energy-transition demand drove PCOPPUSDM from $2.10/lb (March 2020 low) to above $4.50/lb by 2021–2022. Unlike the 2003–2008 cycle, this regime added a structural demand component (EV manufacturing, grid build-out, renewable generation) that is unlikely to mean-revert with the cyclical component. Joint reading with the natural gas and gold series helps decompose the commodity-wide versus copper-specific signals during this regime.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

Copper sits at the intersection of industrial demand, USD dynamics, and the energy-transition structural shift. The datasets below contextualize PCOPPUSDM within the broader commodity and macro framework.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• International Monetary Fund — International Financial Statistics (commodity prices)
• London Metal Exchange (LME) — underlying daily copper settlement
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED series PCOPPUSDM

Dataset Reference

Eco3min Research. (2026). Copper Price History — PCOPPUSDM (1986–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/copper-price-history-dataset/