Macroeconomic Barometer
eco3min · macroeconomic barometer
March 2026 · Data as of March 14, 2026
Macro view — March 2026
This bulletin provides an independent monthly macroeconomic reading, designed to be tracked over time. It brings together key cycle, financial conditions and market indicators, along with their institutional sources. The goal is to distinguish short-term market adjustments from structural shifts in the economic cycle.
All data presented below is factual and sourced from public institutions (FRED, ECB, BLS, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed). None of it constitutes a predictive analysis or investment advice.
Cycle signals — institutional indicators
−0.51
avg. = 0NFCI — Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, banking system). Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. A negative value historically indicates financial conditions that are looser than average; a positive value indicates tighter conditions. Week ending March 7, 2026.
0.43
threshold = 0.50Sahm Rule — real-time recession indicator
Developed by economist Claudia Sahm (formerly at the Fed). Measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its low over the previous 12 months. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the onset of every recession since 1950 (one exception in 1959).
0.05
threshold = 0.20SOS — Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm-style Indicator (Richmond Fed)
Weekly variant of the Sahm Rule using the insured unemployment rate. Developed by the Richmond and Philadelphia Feds (O’Trakoun & Scavette, Economics Letters, 2025). Recession threshold: 0.20. Week ending February 28, 2026.
These indicators are designed for recession and financial stress detection. They do not constitute trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical benchmarks, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.
Factual highlights — March 2026
According to BLS data (released March 7, 2026), US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) were negative in February 2026. The unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, up from its recent low. The Sahm Rule remains below its historical trigger threshold (0.50), but has been trending upward in recent months.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed NFCI remains in negative territory (−0.51 as of March 7), indicating financial conditions that are historically looser than average. The high-yield credit spread and the VIX have both risen recently, reflecting increased volatility over the period.
US inflation (CPI) holds at 2.4% year-over-year (February 2026), above the Fed’s 2% target. The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.00% (February 5, 2026); the next decision is expected on March 19, 2026.
Equity indices — market climate
| Index | Last price | 30-day chg. (approx.) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 Euronext Paris | 7,790 | −5.8% | ▼ |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Eurozone | 5,555 | −8.3% | ▼ |
| S&P 500 NYSE / NASDAQ | 5,638 | −3.1% | ▼ |
| Nasdaq Composite US technology | 22,105 | −3.4% | ▼ |
| Dow Jones 30 industrials | 46,558 | −2.7% | ▼ |
Indicative closing prices as of 03/14/2026. Approximate 30-day changes for directional purposes. Data subject to revision.
Rates, currencies, commodities
| Asset | Level | Recent trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 10Y Benchmark sovereign rate | 4.16% | → stable over the month | ● |
| VIX S&P 500 implied volatility | 27–30 | ↑ elevated stress | ▼ |
| Gold (spot) Safe haven | ~$5,100 | ↑ protection demand | ▲ |
| Brent ICE | ~$88 | ↑ volatility | ● |
| WTI NYMEX | ~$84 | ↑ volatility | ● |
Indicative data as of 03/14/2026. Energy prices experienced exceptional volatility. Not a substitute for real-time market data.
Macroeconomic indicators — latest releases
United States
Eurozone
Framework — factual elements for the month
The indicators compiled in this bulletin reveal several simultaneous dynamics, without allowing a definitive conclusion on the direction of the economic cycle.
On the employment side: BLS data shows a slowdown in job creation and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule is approaching its historical threshold without having triggered. The Richmond Fed’s SOS indicator, which updates weekly, remains well below its own threshold.
On financial conditions: the NFCI remains in negative territory, historically corresponding to conditions that are looser than the long-term average. Credit spreads and implied volatility have risen over the period, without reaching levels seen during major stress episodes.
On inflation: US CPI remains above the Fed’s 2% target. In the eurozone, HICP has fallen below target, but energy prices could alter this trajectory, as the ECB noted in its February 2026 minutes.
Key items to watch
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Monetary policy Yield curve Liquidity & financial conditions Financial markets Commodities Markets vs real economy timingCycle signals and recession
US yield curve spread (10Y − 2Y) and Sahm Rule. A curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most US recessions. The Sahm Rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Financial conditions — NFCI
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). A composite of 105 variables covering money markets, debt, equities and the banking system. Positive value = tighter-than-average historical conditions. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo
Net liquidity equals the Federal Reserve’s total assets minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo operations (RRP). This measure approximates the amount of liquidity effectively available in the financial system. All three components are displayed individually. Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).
Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury via FRED
Inflation and expectations
Market-implied inflation expectations: 10Y breakeven (T10YIE), 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR, the Fed’s preferred gauge of expectations anchoring), and the 10Y real interest rate (DFII10). Data: FRED.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Employment — weekly jobless claims
Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are published every Thursday by the Department of Labor. This is the highest-frequency macroeconomic indicator in the United States and the earliest warning signal on the labor market, well ahead of the monthly employment report (NFP). Data: FRED (ICSA).
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Policy rates and bond yields
The Fed’s policy rate (Fed Funds), 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields, and the 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Credit spread — High Yield
The ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread measures the risk premium investors demand to hold high-yield corporate debt over government bonds. A rapid widening of the spread has historically coincided with financial stress episodes. Data: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2).
Source: ICE Data Indices via FRED
This barometer is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, BLS, ECB, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed). Cycle and financial conditions indicators are presented with their documented definitions and historical thresholds, without predictive interpretation.
Disclaimer. The data, charts and indicators presented on this page are provided for strictly informational and educational purposes. They are sourced from public data (FRED, BLS, ECB, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed) and may be subject to delays, revisions or errors. They do not constitute investment advice, personalized recommendations, solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or predictive analysis of the economic cycle. eco3min.fr is not a licensed financial institution and does not provide investment advisory services within the meaning of applicable regulations (MiFID II). Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the investor, who is encouraged to consult a licensed professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results.