Economic & Financial Deconstruction
Understanding economic cycles to make better investment decisions.
Eco3min provides the analytical frameworks, historical data, and tools needed to place financial decisions within the macroeconomic cycle — without personalized advice, but with the rigor of an actionable analytical framework.
Understanding the mechanisms in order to act with conviction.
Editorial Note
News describes events. Eco3min analyzes the mechanisms that produce them — and gives investors the tools to draw operational conclusions.
Monthly macro bulletin
Current macro regime, overlooked signals, and 3-month scenarios — a framing tool to refine your market reading.
Getting started with investing
ETFs, simple allocation, DCA, mistakes to avoid — see the guide →
Where to start on Eco3min
01
Understand economic and financial cycles
The foundational framework for interpreting cycle phases and adjusting your exposure accordingly.
02
Master macro-financial mechanisms
The most common interpretation errors in markets — and how to avoid them in your allocation decisions.
03
Use the macro barometer to position the cycle
Three proprietary indicators to identify the current regime, calibrate risk, and refine your analytical framework.
What readers do with Eco3min
Place an investment within the cycle
Identify whether the macro regime favors equities, bonds, or cash — before taking a position.
Calibrate portfolio risk
Use stress and liquidity indicators to adjust exposure to risky assets.
Decode central bank decisions
Understand monetary transmission lags to anticipate their impact on markets and real estate.
Leverage historical data
Download cleaned and documented FRED series for your own analysis and backtests.
Downloadable data — historical series for analysis and backtesting
FR · FRED / NBER data
Yield curve inversion: full 2Y–10Y history and recessions
CSV availableFR · FRED / IMF / BIS data
The US dollar and global crises: historical dataset (1973–2023)
CSV + XLSXEN · FRED / NBER data
Yield curve inversion history: complete 2s10s data & NBER recessions
Free CSV downloadEN · FRED / IMF / BIS data
US Dollar at the onset of major global crises (1973–2023): historical dataset
Free CSV + XLSXCore analyses
Long-form dossiers designed to outlast the news cycle. Each analysis provides a usable framework: identify the current regime, understand transmission mechanisms, and derive concrete implications for asset allocation.
The yield curve and monetary policy expectations
How the term structure of rates signals growth and inflation expectations — and what that implies for bond positioning.
Monetary policy transmission to the real economy
The mechanisms and lags through which central bank decisions affect credit, real estate, equities, and savings.
Market microstructure and behavior
Capital flows, liquidity, and seasonality: the structural forces to incorporate into an informed market view.
Commodities: real cycles and macro transmission
Why commodities reveal real cycles — and how they shape inflation and sector allocation decisions.
The dollar and global crisis dynamics
How the dollar level, Fed stance, and real rates have aligned with 18 major crises since 1973.
Identifying the stage of the economic cycle
Leading indicators, turning-point signals, and cycle-phase interpretation to calibrate exposure to risky assets.
Editorial positioning
Mainstream reading
Announcement commentary
Short-term reactions
Unsubstantiated market opinions
Eco3min reading
Mechanism analysis → concrete implications
Cycles and macro regimes → allocation framing
Historical data → backtesting and decision support