Is the US in a recession? Macroeconomic Barometer, November 2026
Data as of November 1, 2026 · Updated November 3, 2026
Short answer, as of November 1, 2026
None of the three US recession gauges tracked here has reached its threshold. The Fed and the ECB held their rates in late October, US GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, and PCE inflation reached 3.6% in September.
- Recession signals: the real-time Sahm rule reads 0.00 for September, after −0.07 in August (trigger 0.50), the SOS indicator −0.004 for the week ending October 17 (trigger 0.20), and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stands at +0.38 point on October 30. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, after 2.2% in the second (BEA, advance estimate, October 29). Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (BLS, October 2); the October report is due November 6. Euro area GDP grew 0.4% in the third quarter (Eurostat, preliminary flash estimate, October 30).
- Inflation: US CPI up 3.7% year over year in September, core CPI 2.6% (BLS, October 14). PCE price index 3.6%, core 3.1% in September (BEA, October 29). Euro area HICP at 3.8% in September, core 2.5% (Eurostat, final estimate, October 16); the October flash estimate is due November 4. France’s provisional October HICP stands at 3.8%, from 3.4% in September (Insee, October 30).
- Central banks: the FOMC held its target range at 3.75–4.00% on October 28, by a 10–2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. The ECB kept its deposit facility rate at 2.50% on October 29. Both rates have stood at these levels since September 16. Next decisions: FOMC December 9, ECB December 17.
- Financial conditions: the Chicago Fed NFCI stands at −0.487 for the week ending October 23, still looser than its historical average, after four consecutive weekly increases on the current vintage. The Baa corporate spread over the 10-year Treasury is 1.53 points on October 30 (Moody’s via FRED). The 10-year Treasury yield ended October at 4.94%, from 5.29% on September 30, after a high of 5.31% on October 5 (FRED, DGS10).
| Indicator | Latest reading | October 1 edition | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm rule, real timeFRED SAHMREALTIME | 0.00September 2026 | −0.07 (August) | Trigger 0.50 below trigger |
| SOS indicatorEco3min calculation (IURSA) | −0.004week to 10/17 | −0.004 (week to 09/12) | Trigger 0.20 below trigger |
| 10Y − 2Y Treasury spreadFRED T10Y2Y | +0.38 pp10/30/2026 | +0.41 pp (09/30) | Inverted below 0 not inverted |
| Financial conditions, NFCIChicago Fed | −0.487week to 10/23 | −0.548 (week to 09/25, since revised to −0.518) | Historical average = 0 looser than average |
| Nonfarm payrollsBLS | +29,000September 2026 | +162,000 (August, first estimate) | August revised to +133,000, July to −10,000 |
| US CPI, year over yearBLS | 3.7%September, core 2.6% | 3.4% (August, core 2.4%) | Fed goal 2% (on PCE) above 2% |
| Euro area HICP, year over yearEurostat | 3.8%September, final; core 2.5% | 3.2% (August, final) | ECB target 2% above 2% |
| Fed funds target rangeFederal Reserve Board | 3.75–4.00%since 09/16/2026 | 3.75–4.00% | Held on 10/28 (10–2 vote); next FOMC December 8–9 |
| ECB deposit facility rateECB | 2.50%since 09/16/2026 | 2.50% | Held on 10/29; next meeting December 16–17 |
| US Treasury 10-yearU.S. Treasury · FRED DGS10 | 4.94%10/30/2026 | 5.29% (09/30) | −0.35 pp; October high 5.31% (10/05) |
| Baa corporate spread over 10-year TreasuryMoody’s via FRED BAA10Y | 1.53 pp10/30/2026 | 1.46 pp (09/29) | +0.07 pp |
| Brent, spot (FOB Europe)EIA via FRED | $123.1010/27/2026 | $113.96 (09/29) | October high $135.51 (10/02) |
| VIXCboe via FRED | 19.4210/30/2026 | 16.04 (09/29) | +3.38 |
By Eco3min Research. Readings retrieved at the source on November 3, 2026, for the November edition, with data as of November 1. The dashboard, the “Since November 1” section and the cycle signals are updated after the main releases of the month; the monthly detail further down (October highlights, month-end markets, macro data, framework) stays dated November 1. What changed since November 1 · Method, sources and revisions
Macro regime · United States
Updated November 3, 2026
Current regime
Transition / mixed signals
Neither growth nor underlying inflation has left its neutral zone: the grid points to none of the seven cyclical regimes.
Growth
On trend
Underlying inflation
Stable
Financial conditions
Neutral
NoteUnderlying inflation stable (2.3%), but an energy shock is under way: Brent +68% year on year (Sep 2026). Headline inflation exceeds the persistent inflation the classification measures.
Since November 1, 2026: the releases of the month
No major release since November 1: this section is completed after each release of the month, in chronological order.
Next releases: euro area HICP flash estimate for October (Eurostat), November 4 · October jobs report (BLS), November 6 · October CPI (BLS), November 10 · euro area Q3 GDP and employment flash estimate (Eurostat), November 13 · final October HICP (Eurostat), November 18 · Q3 GDP second estimate (BEA), November 25 · provisional November inflation for France (Insee), November 27 · October PCE (BEA), December 2 · FOMC, December 8–9 · ECB, December 16–17. The December edition, with data as of December 1, replaces this page at the start of the month.
Cycle signals: institutional indicators, updated November 1, 2026
−0.49
avg. = 0NFCI: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
A composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, the banking system). A negative reading indicates financial conditions looser than the historical average since 1971. The index stands at −0.487 for the week ending October 23. On the current vintage (weekly readings are revised), it has risen for four consecutive weeks, from −0.518 in the week ending September 25, while remaining below zero. The three sub-indices for the week ending October 23: risk −0.562, credit −0.022, leverage +0.199. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (series NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE, week ending October 23, 2026).
0.00
threshold = 0.50Sahm rule: real-time recession indicator
Developed by Claudia Sahm (formerly at the Fed). It measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its low over the prior 12 months. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the start of every recession since 1950. The real-time reading for September 2026 is 0.00, after −0.07 in August and −0.03 in July: the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in September, from 4.1% in August. A reading of zero leaves the bar empty. Next release: November 6, 2026, with the October employment report. Source: FRED, series SAHMREALTIME.
−0.004
threshold = 0.20SOS: Scavette-O’Trakoun Sahm-style indicator (Eco3min calculation)
A weekly variant of the Sahm rule using the insured unemployment rate. Method published by O’Trakoun and Scavette in Economics Letters (2025), applied here by Eco3min: 26-week moving average of the insured unemployment rate minus its minimum over the previous 52 weeks. The underlying series is published in our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. Recession threshold: 0.20. The indicator stands at −0.004 for the week ending October 17, below the threshold. Continuing claims stood at 1.701 million for the same week. Source: Eco3min calculation on the US Department of Labor IURSA series (FRED), data through the week ending October 17, and FRED, series CCSA.
These indicators are designed to detect recession and financial stress. They are not trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical benchmarks, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.
Monthly detail · October highlights, month-end markets and data as of November 1, 2026
Yield curve spread and the Sahm rule
US yield curve spread (10Y − 2Y) and the Sahm rule. A curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most US recessions. The curve is not inverted: the slope stands at +0.38 pp on October 30, against +0.41 pp on September 30, after an October high of +0.51 pp on October 7 and a low of +0.29 pp on October 27. The Sahm rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold; the chart plots the current-vintage series. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Financial conditions: NFCI
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). A composite of 105 variables spanning money markets, debt, equities and the banking system. A positive value = historically tighter conditions. As of October 23, 2026: NFCI −0.487, risk −0.562, credit −0.022, leverage +0.199. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
Factual highlights: October 2026
Fed: rates held, two dissents in favor of an increase. On October 28 the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00%, by a 10–2 vote: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred to raise it by a quarter point. The statement says that “economic activity is expanding at a strong pace”, that “job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little”, and that “inflation remains elevated”. The effective federal funds rate stood at 3.88% throughout October. Source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026; FRED (DFF).
ECB: three key rates unchanged. On October 29 the Governing Council kept the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. The press release states that “energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook”, that “financing conditions have tightened since the Governing Council’s last meeting”, and that the Governing Council “is not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. Source: ECB, monetary policy decisions, October 29, 2026.
Inflation: higher on both sides of the Atlantic. US CPI for September (released October 14) rose 0.6% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms and 3.7% over twelve months, from 3.4% in August. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year, from 2.4%. Energy is up 20.4% over the year and shelter 3.2%. On October 29 the BEA put the September PCE price index at 3.6% year over year and the core measure at 3.1%, with monthly gains of 0.5% and 0.3%. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE stands at 2.26% for September. In the euro area, Eurostat’s final estimate (October 16) puts September HICP at 3.8%, from 3.2% in August; energy 18.9%, services 3.2%, food, alcohol and tobacco 1.3%, and 2.5% excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. France: 3.4% in September, and 3.8% in Insee’s provisional October estimate (October 30), with the CPI at 3.4% after 3.1%. The euro area flash estimate for October is due November 4. Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 2026; BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Eurostat, HICP (prc_hicp_minr), October 16, 2026; Insee, Informations rapides, October 30, 2026.
Growth: US third quarter at 3.4%, euro area at 0.4%. The BEA’s advance estimate (October 29) puts US Q3 2026 GDP at +3.4% at an annual rate, after +2.2% in the second quarter. According to the BEA, the acceleration “primarily reflected an acceleration in investment and an upturn in government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in exports”. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, after 4.6%. The personal saving rate stood at 3.8% in September. In the euro area, Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate (October 30) puts Q3 GDP at +0.4% quarter over quarter, after +0.6%, and +1.3% year over year; EU GDP grew 0.5% and 1.5%. Euro area unemployment stood at 6.5% in September. Source: BEA, GDP (Advance Estimate), Q3 2026, and Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, October 29, 2026; Eurostat, quarterly national accounts and unemployment, October 30, 2026.
Employment and wages: September payrolls up 29,000, prior months revised down. The September jobs report (released October 2) shows nonfarm payrolls up 29,000. July was revised from +21,000 to −10,000 and August from +162,000 to +133,000, a combined downward revision of 60,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and the participation rate to 61.8% from 61.6%. Average hourly earnings stood at $37.81, up 3.0% over the year. The Employment Cost Index (October 30) shows compensation costs up 0.8% in the third quarter, seasonally adjusted, and 3.4% over twelve months; wages and salaries rose 0.9% and 3.1%. Weekly initial claims stood at 194,000 for the week ending October 24. Source: BLS, The Employment Situation, September 2026; BLS, Employment Cost Index, Q3 2026; U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED.
Commodities: Brent above $120, gold lower in September. Brent spot (EIA) went from $115.91 on September 30 to an October high of $135.51 on October 2, then $123.10 on October 27, the latest value published at the time of writing, 87.9% above its level of October 27, 2025; WTI spot stood at $103.37 the same day, from $97.18 on September 30. Gold averaged $4,319 an ounce in September, against $4,411 in August, a decline of 2.1%; the October average is not yet published. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (DCOILBRENTEU, DCOILWTICO); World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), October 2, 2026.
Employment: weekly initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. The highest-frequency US macro indicator and the earliest warning signal for the labor market, ahead of the monthly jobs report (NFP). For the week ending October 24, 2026, ICSA = 194,000, after 195,000, 200,000 and 198,000 in the three prior weeks. Data: FRED (ICSA).
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Equity market return, September 2026
| Market | September 2026 | August 2026 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States Value-weighted market, USD | −0.76% | +2.85% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
| Europe Value-weighted market, USD | −4.68% | +1.43% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
| Japan Value-weighted market, USD | +1.25% | +2.46% | Kenneth R. French Data Library |
Value-weighted market portfolio returns in US dollars (Kenneth R. French Data Library). These are not national stock indices; one month behind the rest of the barometer. Total monthly return = market excess return (Mkt-RF) plus the one-month risk-free rate (RF), from the files built on September 2026 data, read on November 3, 2026. Past returns have no predictive value.
Rates, commodities, volatility
| Asset | Level | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 2-year Sensitive to Fed expectations | 4.56% | 10/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS2) |
| US Treasury 10-year Benchmark sovereign yield | 4.94% | 10/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS10) |
| US Treasury 30-year Long-end benchmark | 5.31% | 10/30/2026 | U.S. Treasury · FRED (DGS30) |
| Spread 10Y − 2Y Curve slope | +0.38 pp | 10/30/2026 | FRED (T10Y2Y) |
| 30-year mortgage rate Freddie Mac | 7.24% | 10/29/2026 | Freddie Mac via FRED (MORTGAGE30US) |
| Baa corporate spread Baa yield minus 10-year Treasury | 1.53 pp | 10/30/2026 | Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y) |
| Broad dollar index Nominal, Jan. 2006 = 100 | 121.67 | 10/30/2026 | Federal Reserve Board H.10 via FRED (DTWEXBGS) |
| VIX Cboe implied volatility index | 19.42 | 10/30/2026 | Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS) |
| Gold, monthly average USD/oz | $4,319 | September 2026 | World Bank, Pink Sheet |
| Brent (spot) Europe Brent FOB | $123.10 | 10/27/2026 | EIA (DCOILBRENTEU) |
| WTI (spot) Cushing, OK | $103.37 | 10/27/2026 | EIA (DCOILWTICO) |
Several lines are not dated October 30: oil spot prices are the latest published by the EIA at the time of writing (October 27); the mortgage rate is a weekly series published on Thursdays; and gold is a monthly average (World Bank Pink Sheet; the October average is not yet published). Over October, the 2-year yield fell 32 bps and the 10-year yield 35 bps, leaving the 10Y−2Y slope at +0.38 pp, from +0.41 pp at the end of September; the Baa spread widened 6 bps and the VIX rose 3.08 points from their September 30 levels. Indicative values, subject to revision.
Policy rates and bond yields
The Fed policy rate (Fed Funds), 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. As of October 30, 2026: target range 3.75–4.00% since September 16, held on October 28, effective fed funds 3.88%, 2-year 4.56%, 10-year 4.94%, 30-year mortgage 7.24% (week ending October 29). Over October the 2-year yield fell 32 bps and the 10-year yield 35 bps. Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US).
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Freddie Mac (MORTGAGE30US), via FRED
Credit spread: Baa vs 10-year Treasury
The gap between the yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds and the 10-year Treasury yield measures the premium investors require to hold mid-grade corporate credit rather than federal debt. As of October 30, 2026, it stood at 1.53 percentage points (153 bps), against 1.47 at the end of September. That is below 92.2% of trading days since 1986, a period over which the average is 2.26 points. Data: Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y).
Source: Moody’s via FRED (BAA10Y)
Macroeconomic indicators: latest releases
United States
Euro area
Inflation and expectations
Market-implied inflation expectations: 10-year breakeven (T10YIE) at 2.34% on October 30 (the gap between nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year yields), 10-year real interest rate (DFII10) at 2.60% on October 30, and the 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR) at 2.22% on October 30. The 5Y5Y forward is the Fed’s preferred gauge of long-term expectations anchoring; it fell 14 bps over the month, from 2.36%, while the 10-year real rate fell 33 bps, from 2.93%, and the breakeven 2 bps: most of October’s decline in the nominal 10-year yield came through the real rate. Data: FRED.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (DFII10), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (T10YIE, T5YIFR), via FRED
Analytical framework: the month’s factual elements
The data available as of November 1 describe a configuration in which both central banks held their rates in October while US growth accelerated and inflation rose on both sides of the Atlantic: US GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, US CPI reached 3.7% and euro area HICP 3.8% in September. None of the recession gauges tracked here has reached its threshold, and the 10-year Treasury yield ended October 35 bps below its September 30 level.
On activity: the BEA’s advance estimate puts US Q3 2026 GDP at +3.4% at an annual rate, after +2.2%, an acceleration the BEA attributes primarily to investment and government spending, partly offset by exports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, rose 4.9%. In the euro area, Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate puts Q3 growth at +0.4% quarter over quarter, after +0.6%. The ECB’s October 29 statement says that “financing conditions have tightened” since the previous meeting.
On employment: September payrolls rose 29,000, and the revisions removed 60,000 jobs from July and August combined, leaving July at −10,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and the participation rate to 61.8%. The real-time Sahm rule moved from −0.07 to 0.00, against a 0.50 threshold, the SOS indicator stands at −0.004 against 0.20, and weekly claims stood at 194,000 in the week ending October 24. Compensation costs rose 3.4% over the year to the third quarter (BLS, Employment Cost Index). The FOMC statement describes job gains as having “kept pace with the workforce”.
On inflation: US CPI rose to 3.7% year over year in September, with core at 2.6% and the energy component 20.4% above its year-ago level. The PCE price index rose to 3.6% and the core measure to 3.1%; the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE stands at 2.26%. Market-implied expectations eased: the 5Y5Y forward fell from 2.36% to 2.22% over October. In the euro area, final September HICP is 3.8% with energy at 18.9% and core at 2.5%; Insee’s provisional October HICP for France, at 3.8% against 3.4% in September, precedes the euro area flash estimate of November 4.
On central banks and markets: the Fed and the ECB each held their policy rates in October, the Fed with two members voting for a quarter-point increase. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 5.29% to 4.94% over the month, after a high of 5.31% on October 5; the 10-year real rate fell 33 bps to 2.60%, and the 10Y−2Y slope ended October at +0.38 pp. The Baa spread widened to 1.53 points and the VIX ended the month at 19.42. The NFCI rose for four consecutive weeks to −0.487, still looser than its historical average, and net liquidity fell about $41B to roughly $5,742B as the Treasury account rose to $999.7B. Brent spot stood at $123.10 on October 27, after a high of $135.51 on October 2.
Key items to watch: November–December 2026 calendar
Net liquidity: Fed balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo
Net liquidity equals total Federal Reserve assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo operations (RRP). As of October 28, 2026, total assets come in at $6,746B and the TGA at $999.7B; with the RRP near zero ($4.4B on October 30), net liquidity stands at about $5,742B, down roughly $41B from September 30. Over the month the balance sheet grew by about $3B while the Treasury account rose by about $51B. Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (RRPONTSYD), via FRED
Explore on eco3min.fr
Monetary policy Yield curve Liquidity & financial conditions Financial markets Commodities Macroeconomics & geopoliticsMethod, sources and revisions
Prepared by Eco3min Research, the editorial desk of eco3min.fr. Values on this page are retrieved from the institutions that publish them (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve Board, ECB, Eurostat, Insee, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA, World Bank, Kenneth R. French Data Library) during the production of each edition, and are shown with their series code and date. The production rule excludes estimates and figures carried over from memory: a release not yet published is labelled as such. Since October 1, 2026, the barometer publishes no data distributed under licence: equity markets are covered by the market returns of the Kenneth R. French Data Library, credit by Moody’s Baa spread over the 10-year Treasury, and gold by the World Bank monthly average.
Schedule: a full edition with data as of the first day of each month; the dashboard and the “Since” section are updated after the main releases of the month (jobs report, CPI, central bank decisions). The macro regime card follows the published classification methodology. Previous editions are archived unchanged, with links at the bottom of this page.
- November 3, 2026: November edition published, data as of November 1, 2026. October highlights, month-end markets, macro data, framework and calendar replaced; the “Since November 1” section restarts empty and will be completed after each release of the month.
- October 1, 2026: equity index levels replaced by Kenneth R. French market returns, the high-yield spread by the Baa spread (BAA10Y), gold by the World Bank monthly average; chart source lines completed with the attribution of each series.
This barometer is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, U.S. Treasury, BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, Eurostat, Insee, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA, World Bank, Kenneth R. French Data Library). The cycle and financial-conditions indicators are presented with their documented definitions and historical thresholds, with no predictive interpretation.
Disclaimer. The data, charts and indicators presented on this page are provided for strictly informational and educational purposes. They are drawn from public data (FRED, BLS, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed) and may be subject to delays, revisions or errors. They do not constitute investment advice, personalised recommendations, a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a predictive analysis of the economic cycle. eco3min.fr is not an authorised financial institution and does not provide investment advisory services within the meaning of applicable regulations (MiFID II; Articles L.541-1 et seq. of the French Monetary and Financial Code). Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the investor, who is encouraged to consult an authorised professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The market values cited are indicative and may differ from real-time prices.
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Last updated — 3 November 2026