EXCESS-CAPE-YIELD — Daily CSV Download (Excess CAPE Yield)
The Excess CAPE Yield — introduced by Robert Shiller — subtracts the real 10-year Treasury yield from the CAPE earnings yield (1/CAPE). It measures the excess return equities offer over inflation-protected bonds on a cyclically adjusted basis. Unlike the simple ERP, it accounts for both earnings smoothing and inflation. A high ECY means equities are attractively priced relative to real bonds; a low ECY signals stretched valuations even accounting for low real rates.
Dataset: Excess CAPE Yield (1881–2026) · Updated 2026-05-01
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the CAPE ratio and the real interest rates helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Excess CAPE Yield (1881–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1881–2026 |
| Variables | date, cape_yield, real_10y, excess_cape_yield |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Robert Shiller, Yale University (ie_data.xls) — Open academic data |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
cape_yield | Float | CAPE earnings yield (1/CAPE × 100, %) |
real_10y | Float | Real 10-year yield (nominal − trailing CPI, %) |
excess_cape_yield | Float | CAPE yield minus real 10Y (%) |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/excess-cape-yield.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/excess-cape-yield.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df.describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/excess-cape-yield.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
CAPE yield = (1/CAPE) × 100. Real 10Y = GS10 nominal yield minus trailing 12-month CPI inflation. ECY = CAPE yield − Real 10Y. All from Shiller’s dataset.
This dataset is updated automatically via the Eco3min data pipeline.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
- S&P 500 CAPE Ratio — The valuation input
- Equity Risk Premium — Alternative ERP measure
- Real Interest Rates History — Real rate context
Related Research
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Robert Shiller, Yale University (ie_data.xls) — Open academic data
Dataset Reference
Last updated — 9 May 2026
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