The Eco3min Newsletter
The Eco3min Newsletter is a free email on macro regimes and market dynamics. One issue a month, no filler: the month’s new study and the macro barometer, linked to the data behind them.
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Eco3min studies and data have been referenced by FT Alphaville, Forbes, The Conversation and State Street (record of references).
In each issue:
- The month’s new study, with a direct link to the full analysis and its dataset.
- The monthly barometer: what rates, markets and the economy changed since the last issue.
- One line on the live macro regime, and what moved.
How often: one email a month. Nothing in between.
Recently published
Recent Eco3min analysis and data: the kind of work the newsletter highlights.
October 2026
The world’s most expensive Big Mac is the quickest to earn
Measured in minutes of work at the average net wage, a Big Mac costs about 7 minutes in Switzerland and about 63 in Mexico, across 16 non-euro OECD economies in 2026 (The Economist Big Mac Index, July 2026; OECD average wages, hours worked and Taxing Wages, 2025). The sticker price barely predicts the work-time: the Swiss burger, at $9.04, is the most expensive on the planet, while Japan’s, the cheapest in the set at $3.08, still takes about 12.1 minutes, longer than the 10.3 minutes in the United States. Net hourly pay, annual hours and tax do almost all of the explaining. The page sets out the method, the limits and why the euro area is left out. Full dataset included as CSV.
October 2026
Gasoline above $4, yet a third less work than in 2008
Regular gasoline averaged $4.37 a gallon in the United States in Q2 2026, more than in the summer of 2008 ($3.86). Yet an hour of median full-time pay now buys 7.2 gallons, against 4.7 in Q3 2008: between the two quarters the pump price rose 13 percent and median weekly earnings 74 percent (BLS Current Population Survey and CPI average prices). Q2 2026 still sits below the median of the series since 1979, 8.6 gallons. The page lays out both readings, a comfortable figure against past shocks or an expensive one against the 1986 to 2004 baseline, without resolving them. 190 quarters included as CSV.
September 2026
US adults 65 and older are set to outnumber children around 2029
For the first time since the country began counting itself, Americans aged 65 and older are projected to outnumber children under 18 — around 2029, on the Census Bureau’s 2023 national projections (middle series). The shift has been building since 1950: the older population rose from 12.3 million to 61.2 million, roughly five-fold, while the number of children held near 73 million. The gap narrowed from about 17 million in 2020 to about 12 million in 2024, entirely because the top line rose. Eleven states and nearly half of all US counties have already crossed the line. The page lays out both readings — fiscal pressure, or a marker of longer lives — without resolving them, and why the projected date moved from 2034 to 2029. Full dataset included as CSV.
August 2026
The US cattle herd at the fewest head per person on record
On January 1, 2026, USDA counted 86.2 million cattle and calves in the United States — the smallest herd since 1951. But the population has more than doubled since then: per resident, that works out to about 0.25 head, roughly one animal for every four Americans, the lowest value in the available record (against ~0.61 at the 1975 peak). Over the same stretch, retail ground beef hit a nominal record of $6.90 per pound, up about 78% since January 2020. The page documents both series from primary sources (USDA NASS, Census, BLS) and lays out the two competing readings — cyclical trough or structural step down — without resolving them. Full dataset included as CSV.
July 2026
The US federal deficit at each business-cycle low in unemployment
At each business-cycle low in unemployment, the state of US public finances has drifted. In 1969 and 2000 the US ran a budget surplus at full employment; in 2023, at similar low unemployment, the deficit was near 6% of GDP. The study places the federal balance at the exact moment of each unemployment trough since the 1960s. Full dataset included.
June 2026
US consumer prices vs the Fed’s 2% target, since 2020
Year-over-year inflation cooled back toward the 2% goal through 2024 and 2025 — but the price level has not. Measured on the PCE index, the one the Fed targets, the cumulative level sits about 11% above the path a steady 2% rate would have produced since January 2020: prices are up 25.9% by May 2026 against the 13.4% a 2% path implies. Core PCE shows the same gap (+24.5%, 9.8% above). Headline inflation has stayed above 2% for 63 consecutive months. CSV download included.
June 2026
The live regime reads transition — mixed signals, neutral cyclical state
The daily classifier has moved off the soft-stagflation configuration that defined the spring: the June read is a transition state — mixed cyclical signals, no clear growth × inflation direction. This is the live, rules-based daily call from public institutional data, distinct from the monthly barometer’s snapshot, and it shifts whenever the underlying indicators cross their published thresholds. Further on this: our piece on stagflation.
May 2026
Monthly barometer — soft stagflation, central banks on hold
US headline CPI rose to 3.3% on a one-month energy shock while Q1 GDP held at 2.0% and the Sahm rule stayed at 0.20, well clear of its recession threshold. For the complete series, see our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. The Fed and the ECB both held rates — the FOMC on an 8-4 vote, its most dissents since 1992. The current read: a soft stagflation pattern, with the headline/underlying divergence flag active.
May 2026
New: a live classification of the US macro regime
A daily, rules-based classification of the US macro regime, built only from public institutional indicators and a published threshold table. It reads on three layers — the cyclical growth × inflation grid, a financial-conditions overlay, and a long-run structural frame — and updates automatically each day.
April 2026
The dollar’s 4th-worst first half since 1973
The broad dollar index fell 7.6% over H1 2025 — a drop matched only three times in 53 years (1973, 1986, 2003), each coinciding with stress on the dollar’s institutional role. On data through early 2026, the post-H1 path tracks closer to the 1973 partial-reversal case than to the multi-year declines of 1986 and 2003. Full dataset, CSV and XLSX, included.
Read the analysis → · Strong/weak dollar cycles since 1973 →
March 2026
Dataset — the 10-year US Treasury yield, daily since 1962
The full DGS10 series: over 16,000 daily observations of the 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity yield, the global pricing reference for long-term dollar debt. Packaged as a stable, versionable CSV and Excel file with consistent column names, ready for pandas or R.
February 2026
Every confirmed yield-curve inversion since 1976 preceded a recession
A complete record of the major sustained 2s10s inversions in the FRED series: five of five confirmed episodes were followed by an NBER recession, with a median lead of 16 months. The 2022–2024 inversion — the longest on record at 26 months — is the only one not followed by a downturn so far. Full dataset included.
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Last updated — 13 October 2026