The Eco3min Bulletin
The Eco3min Bulletin is a free email on macro regimes and market dynamics. No fixed schedule and no filler — you only hear from us when we publish something worth your time.
Free · Unsubscribe anytime
In each issue for example:
- A new analysis, with a direct link to the full study.
- A new dataset, with its CSV and Excel downloads.
- Occasionally, a one-line read on the current macro regime.
How often: no calendar. We email only when there’s new published work — never weekly filler.
Recently published
Recent Eco3min analysis and data — the kind of work the bulletin highlights.
July 2026
The US federal deficit at each business-cycle low in unemployment
At each business-cycle low in unemployment, the state of US public finances has drifted. In 1969 and 2000 the US ran a budget surplus at full employment; in 2023, at similar low unemployment, the deficit was near 6% of GDP. The study places the federal balance at the exact moment of each unemployment trough since the 1960s. Full dataset included.
June 2026
US consumer prices vs the Fed’s 2% target, since 2020
Year-over-year inflation cooled back toward the 2% goal through 2024 and 2025 — but the price level has not. Measured on the PCE index, the one the Fed targets, the cumulative level sits about 11% above the path a steady 2% rate would have produced since January 2020: prices are up 25.9% by May 2026 against the 13.4% a 2% path implies. Core PCE shows the same gap (+24.5%, 9.8% above). Headline inflation has stayed above 2% for 63 consecutive months. Free CSV download included.
June 2026
The live regime reads transition — mixed signals, neutral cyclical state
The daily classifier has moved off the soft-stagflation configuration that defined the spring: the June read is a transition state — mixed cyclical signals, no clear growth × inflation direction. This is the live, rules-based daily call from public institutional data, distinct from the monthly barometer’s snapshot, and it shifts whenever the underlying indicators cross their published thresholds. Further on this: our piece on stagflation.
May 2026
Monthly barometer — soft stagflation, central banks on hold
US headline CPI rose to 3.3% on a one-month energy shock while Q1 GDP held at 2.0% and the Sahm rule stayed at 0.20, well clear of its recession threshold. For the complete series, see our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. The Fed and the ECB both held rates — the FOMC on an 8-4 vote, its most dissents since 1992. The current read: a soft stagflation pattern, with the headline/underlying divergence flag active.
May 2026
New: a live classification of the US macro regime
A daily, rules-based classification of the US macro regime, built only from public institutional indicators and a published threshold table. It reads on three layers — the cyclical growth × inflation grid, a financial-conditions overlay, and a long-run structural frame — and updates automatically each day.
April 2026
The dollar’s 4th-worst first half since 1973
The broad dollar index fell 7.6% over H1 2025 — a drop matched only three times in 53 years (1973, 1986, 2003), each coinciding with stress on the dollar’s institutional role. On data through early 2026, the post-H1 path tracks closer to the 1973 partial-reversal case than to the multi-year declines of 1986 and 2003. Full dataset, CSV and XLSX, included.
Read the analysis → · Strong/weak dollar cycles since 1973 →
March 2026
Dataset — the 10-year US Treasury yield, daily since 1962
The full DGS10 series: over 16,000 daily observations of the 10-year US Treasury constant-maturity yield, the global pricing reference for long-term dollar debt. Packaged as a stable, versionable CSV and Excel file with consistent column names, ready for pandas or R.
February 2026
Every confirmed yield-curve inversion since 1976 preceded a recession
A complete record of the major sustained 2s10s inversions in the FRED series: five of five confirmed episodes were followed by an NBER recession, with a median lead of 16 months. The 2022–2024 inversion — the longest on record at 26 months — is the only one not followed by a downturn so far. Full dataset included.
Last updated — 4 August 2026