Current Macro Regime
eco3min · macro regime classification
Real-time formal classification of the US economy, based on public institutional indicators and a published threshold table. Updated automatically each day. For the complete methodology: methodology and source data.
Descriptive snapshot of current macro-financial conditions, for information only — not predictive, not prescriptive. Each value is sourced and dated; colours describe a state, not portfolio favourability.
Architecture: three independent axes
The Eco3min classification uses three orthogonal axes — real activity, persistent inflation, financial conditions — rather than a flat list. Growth and inflation form the primary grid (3×3 = 9 states, of which 7 are named + 1 transition). Financial conditions qualify the regime as a prefix.
Growth axis (G)
G+: CFNAI-MA3 > +0.10 — activity above long-run trend.
G=: neutral band — activity on trend.
G−: CFNAI-MA3 < −0.50, or Sahm rule ≥ 0.50 (immediate trigger).
Inflation axis (I)
I+: Trimmed Mean PCE (Dallas Fed) > 2.75% on a 12-month basis.
I=: band 1.50%–2.75% — inflation near the Fed target.
I−: Trimmed Mean PCE < 1.50% — disinflation or deflation risk.
Financial conditions overlay
Based on the Chicago Fed’s NFCI (composite of 105 variables). Prefixes the regime name — does not create a third nominal axis. Updates without hysteresis.
Global context
US/G7 synchronization via OECD CLIs. Dollar channel (DTWEXBGS), commodities channel (Brent YoY), global stress (VIX). Qualifies the environment around the US core.
Anti-flickering: hysteresis
A state change on the G and I axes is confirmed only after two consecutive months beyond the threshold. Exception: when the Sahm rule reaches 0.50, the transition to G− is immediate. The financial conditions overlay updates each week without delay.
The headline/underlying divergence flag
When the Trimmed Mean PCE remains stable or decelerating (I= or I−) but Brent has risen more than 20% year-over-year, a ⚠ flag appears in the card. This signal indicates that an energy shock is elevating headline inflation without anchoring in persistent underlying inflation — the named regime reflects measured underlying inflation, not the headline spike.
The Atlas distinguishes three kinds of objects, read at different time horizons and carrying different evidentiary status. The first layer is what the classification computes in real time; the second overlays it; the third is a long-run interpretive framework, set by judgment and not computed monthly. Each regime is documented in full: mechanisms, indicators, false signals, historical data, and episodes.
The growth × inflation state of the moment, at a horizon of a few months. This is what the live card measures. The two meta-regimes below group the columns of the grid (the 7 named states map onto them).
Superimposes on any cyclical state, at a horizon of weeks to a few months, quickly reversible. Measured by engine signals (dollar, NFCI, HY spreads) — no G/I code, because it is not a state of the grid.
Background regimes that unfold over several years and deform the grid itself (a durably low r* changes what “G+” means). These are not real-time computed verdicts: they are interpretive frameworks, set by editorial judgment over the long run.
Last updated — 30 May 2026
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