Current Macro Regime
Eco3min · macro regime classification
This page classifies the US economy every day on three measured axes: growth (the Chicago Fed’s CFNAI), underlying inflation (the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE, which drops the most extreme price changes each month) and financial conditions (the NFCI). The classification thresholds are published in the methodology and its source data.
Current regime
Transition / mixed signals
Neither growth nor underlying inflation has left its neutral zone: the grid points to none of the seven cyclical regimes.
Growth
On trend
Underlying inflation
Stable
Financial conditions
Neutral
NoteUnderlying inflation stable (2.2%), but an energy shock is under way: Brent +68% year on year (Sep 2026). Headline inflation exceeds the persistent inflation the classification measures.
Since last month
Monthly series · Sep 2026 to Oct 2026
Growth
On trendunchanged
CFNAI-MA3 0.01
Underlying inflation
Stableunchanged
Trimmed PCE 2.2%
Financial conditions
Accommodating → neutral
NFCI −0.53 → −0.49
On the monthly series, the “Transition / mixed signals” regime has held since November 2025: 12 consecutive months.
The current month is provisional (data as of October 13, 2026).
Conditions indicators
Each series' own value and date
| Yield curve 2s10s | T10Y2Y | 0.44 pp | ▲ +0.03 | flat | Oct 2026 |
| 10Y real rate | DFII10 | 2.9% | ▼ −0.06 | elevated | Oct 2026 |
| CISS (euro area) | CISS | 0.019 | ▼ −0.01 | calm | Oct 2026 |
| Dollar Δ3M | DTWEXBGS | 1.4% | ▲ +1.37 | neutral | Oct 2026 |
| Brent (YoY) | MCOILBRENTEU | 67.9% | ▲ +33.71 | energy shock | Sep 2026 |
| eco3min score | 2.87 | ▲ +0.03 | target | Aug 2026 |
Descriptive snapshot of macro-financial conditions, for information only, neither predictive nor prescriptive. Each value is sourced and dated. The state describes the indicator's zone, not portfolio favourability.
The regime month by month since 1978
586 months · monthly series · Jan 1978 to Oct 2026
Regime
Financial conditions
US recessions (NBER)
Full input set from Jan 2003
Disinflationary Expansion3 months · 1%
Balanced Expansion137 months · 23%
Overheating91 months · 16%
Inflationary Pressure106 months · 18%
Stagflation31 months · 5%
Slowdown30 months · 5%
Transition / mixed signals188 months · 32%
The last 24 months
Regime changes over the period
Nov 2025: Inflationary Pressure → Transition / mixed signals
Eco3min monthly series, thresholds v1.1.0, data vintage of October 13, 2026 (revised values, not the figures known at the time). Before 2003, some secondary inputs do not exist yet and the months are classified on a reduced input set. Financial conditions: Chicago Fed NFCI. Recessions: NBER, via FRED (USREC).
The Atlas sorts three kinds of objects, read on different time horizons and carrying different weight as evidence. The first layer is computed daily, the second sits on top of it, and the third is a long-run framework set by judgment. Each page covers the mechanisms, the indicators, the false signals and the historical episodes.
The growth × inflation state of the moment, on a horizon of a few months. This is what the card above measures. The two meta-regimes gather six of the seven named states. The seventh, balanced expansion (G+ I=), has no Atlas page of its own.
Sits on top of any cyclical state, on a horizon of weeks to a few months, and can reverse quickly. Measured by funding signals (the dollar, the NFCI, high-yield spreads), with no G/I code since it is not a cell of the grid. The financial-conditions index series holds the full history.
Background regimes that unfold over several years and change what the same numbers mean: with a persistently low neutral rate, a given policy rate weighs less on activity. They are not computed verdicts but interpretive frameworks, set by editorial judgment.
How to read the classification
Three measured axes
The classification crosses three independent axes instead of using a flat list of regimes. Growth and inflation form a grid of nine combinations, seven of which are named regimes. The other two match no regime in the grid and are shown as a transition. Financial conditions qualify the regime without adding a cell.
Growth (G)
G+: CFNAI-MA3 above +0.10, activity above its long-run trend.
G=: between −0.50 and +0.10, activity near trend or moderately below it.
G−: CFNAI-MA3 below −0.50, or a Sahm rule crossing 0.50 (the three-month average jobless rate against its low of the prior twelve months).
Underlying inflation (I)
I+: Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE above 2.75% over 12 months.
I=: between 1.50% and 2.75%, close to the Fed’s target.
I−: below 1.50%, disinflation or deflation risk.
Financial conditions
Based on the Chicago Fed’s NFCI, a composite of 105 financial variables. They qualify the regime name and update every week, with no confirmation lag.
Global context
US and G7 synchronization through the OECD’s leading indicators, the dollar channel (DTWEXBGS), the commodity channel (Brent year over year) and global stress (VIX). This context surrounds the US core without changing the regime.
Why the regime does not change with every release
A state change on growth or inflation is confirmed only after two consecutive months beyond the threshold. The lag keeps a single print, often revised later, from flipping the classification. One exception: when the Sahm rule crosses 0.50, growth moves to G− at once. How long that state lasts then depends on the CFNAI.
The “Since last month” block compares the last two months of the monthly series, which goes back to January 1978. The card shows today’s computation. The two can differ within a month, and the block says so. Any month of the series can be read in the historical macro regime lookup.
When headline inflation drifts from underlying inflation
If underlying inflation stays classified as stable or low while Brent has risen more than 40% over a year, the card shows a “Note” line. An energy shock is then lifting headline inflation without reaching persistent inflation. The regime follows measured underlying inflation, not the headline spike.
Last updated — 9 October 2026
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