Macro Watch — Topical Research from Eco3min


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Macro Watch

Topical macro-financial research from Eco3min. Each study takes a current market or policy event and places it in its longer historical context — sourced from primary data, written for analysts and journalists. One new study per week, every Tuesday.

All studies linked here remain freely available, with downloadable datasets and reproducible methodology. For evergreen frameworks (yield curve, real rates, inflation, liquidity), see the main data hub. For a monthly reading of the current macro regime, see the Eco3min macro barometer.

Studies published2
CadenceWeekly · Tuesday
FormatLong-form + dataset
SourcesSEC · FRED · 10-Qs




Latest studies

Most recent first. Each study covers a single topic in depth: data, structural framework, counter-arguments, and downloadable dataset.

2 studies · Updated every Tuesday

📄 Research study · May 5, 2026

Big Tech AI Capex 2025–2026: $1.1 Trillion in 24 Months vs Apollo, Marshall, and Manhattan Combined

The four largest US tech companies will spend approximately $1.12 trillion on AI capex across calendar 2025 and 2026 — roughly 3× the combined inflation-adjusted cost of the Apollo Program, Marshall Plan, and Manhattan Project in 2025 USD. Placement against the small cluster of historic US mega-investments and post-buildout trajectory analysis using the closest private-sector analogue (1996–2000 telecom buildout).

Sources: Company 10-Qs and Q1 2026 earnings calls (Apr 29–30, 2026), Planetary Society, Wikipedia, BLS CPI

📄 Research study · April 2026

The US Dollar’s Worst First Halves (1973–2025)

H1 2025 ranked 4th worst on record for the broad US Dollar Index since the end of Bretton Woods, at −7.6%. The three deeper episodes — 1973, 1986, 2003 — each coincided with a structural shift in the international monetary or trade order. Statistical placement of H1 2025 against the full distribution of 53 first-half observations and analysis of post-H1 trajectories.

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED series DTWEXM, DTWEXBGS) · 53 H1 observations · Free CSV/XLSX download



Editorial standards

Each Macro Watch study follows the same standards applied to the evergreen research on the main hub:

Observatoire macro (version française) →



Frequently asked questions

How is Macro Watch different from the main research hub and the barometer?

Eco3min publishes three complementary layers. The main hub is the permanent reference layer: 79 datasets that update automatically, plus 17 evergreen studies on the foundational macro-financial frameworks (yield curve, inflation, real rates, liquidity, credit spreads). The macro barometer is the continuous framing layer: a synthetic monthly reading of the current regime. Macro Watch is the topical layer: one new study per week, anchored to a current event, with a longer historical perspective. The three layers are designed to work together — Macro Watch studies frequently cite and build on the main hub’s datasets and the barometer’s framing.

Can I republish or cite Macro Watch studies?

Yes. All studies and datasets are released under CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution. A suggested citation format is provided at the bottom of each study page. Direct quotes are welcome; please link back to the original study URL.

How are study topics chosen?

Each Macro Watch study is anchored to a specific current event: a quarterly earnings cycle, a half-year currency move, a major macro release, a policy shift. Topics are selected based on (1) availability of primary-source data, (2) capacity for non-trivial placement against historical context, and (3) value to the readership of analysts, journalists, and macro researchers. Topical relevance, not viral potential, drives selection.

Are the datasets behind each study downloadable?

Yes. Every Macro Watch study includes a CSV and XLSX download with the exact figures used in the analysis, source identifiers per data point, and methodology notes. The Python or R code is also published when the dataset is non-trivial to reproduce.

Why are some studies in English only?

French translations follow the English publication by 1–2 weeks. Topical Macro Watch studies are published in English first because the core readership for this layer (Substack writers, FT journalists, US-based macro analysts) is anglophone. Evergreen studies and datasets on the main hub are typically published bilingually from launch.



Cite Macro Watch

If you reference a Macro Watch study in your research, articles, or analyses, please cite as follows:

Licensed under CC BY 4.0 — free to use with attribution. Each individual study page provides its own complete citation.


Last updated — 8 May 2026

Disclaimer – Financial Information: The analyses, commentary, and content published on eco3min.fr are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions involve risk and are the sole responsibility of the reader.