France-Germany 10Y Sovereign Spread: Monthly OAT-Bund Data Since 1990
ECB Dataset · Credit & Spreads
The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields. Historically stable at 30–50 bps, it widened sharply in 2024 amid French fiscal and political uncertainty — signaling a potential structural repricing of French sovereign risk within the euro area.
France — from quasi-core to semi-periphery?
For most of the euro era, France was priced as a near-core sovereign — the OAT-Bund spread averaged 30–50 bps and rarely exceeded 80 bps outside of acute crisis episodes. This reflected France’s status as the second-largest euro area economy with a credible fiscal framework and stable political system. Related material: how fragmentation pressures the euro.
The 2024 widening marked a regime shift: snap elections, coalition fragmentation, a deficit above 5% of GDP, and debt approaching 115% of GDP converged to push the spread above 80 bps — levels last seen during the 2012 sovereign crisis. Unlike Italy (where spreads reflect a decades-long structural risk premium), the French widening represents a deterioration from a previously stable baseline. A second French spread runs on the other side of the same yield: the mortgage-minus-OAT spread for France, which prices bank intermediation rather than sovereign risk.
Systemic implications
France is fundamentally different from Italy for the ECB: it is too large (~20% of euro area GDP) for the TPI to credibly backstop, yet its fiscal trajectory creates genuine market concern. Figure drawn from the ECB Data Portal series for France 10-Year Government Bond Yield. A sustained OAT-Bund spread above 80 bps would increase borrowing costs for French banks, corporates, and the sovereign, potentially creating a negative feedback loop. This dataset tracks whether the 2024 widening proves transient or structural. Pricing that borrowing cost is a weekly exercise: France’s own issuance timetable brings BTFs to market every Monday and OATs on two Thursdays a month.
CSV Data Dictionary
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| date | YYYY-MM-DD | First day of the reference month |
| spread_fr_de | float | France 10Y yield minus Germany 10Y yield (percentage points) |
| oat_10y_yield | float | French 10Y yield (%) |
| bund_10y_yield | float | German 10Y yield (%) |
Python Code Example
import pandas as pd
# From Eco3min pre-cleaned CSV (composite dataset)
df = pd.read_csv("https://eco3min.fr/dataset/ecb/ecb-france-germany-spread.csv")
df["date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["date"])
df = df.set_index("date")
df["spread_fr_de"].plot(title="OAT-Bund 10Y Spread", figsize=(12, 5))Related ECB Datasets
Source & Methodology
Source: Eco3min composite — ECB/IRS France minus Germany convergence rates
Series key: Composite: IRS/M.FR − IRS/M.DE
License: ECB open data — free reuse with attribution.
Cite This Dataset
Last updated — 21 September 2026
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Source terms. This series is produced by the European Central Bank (ECB Data Portal) and redistributed here under the ECB's copyright terms: free use provided the ECB is cited as the source, the data are reproduced accurately, and any modification (such as a spread or a real rate computed by Eco3min) is stated explicitly. Eco3min cannot sub-license it under Creative Commons: anyone reusing this file remains bound by the ECB terms, not by CC BY. Full terms.