Macro tools: read the regime and the cycle
Eco3min’s macro tools do not predict the cycle — they make it legible. Where the financial-education calculators expose the assumptions behind your personal projections, the tools on this page place those decisions in their regime context: where growth, inflation and financial conditions stand — and how assets and crises behaved in comparable configurations. Every value shown is sourced and dated; colours describe a past state, never portfolio favourability. Descriptive, never prescriptive.
The current regime, classified continuously
Before any tool, a reference point: which macro regime is the economy in today? Eco3min’s regime classification computes this state continuously from public institutional indicators and a versioned threshold table — growth, persistent inflation, financial conditions. It is the foundation the tools below build on.
The real-time regime card shows the current macro state, its sourced and dated indicators, and the global context. It is the read to consult first — the other tools extend it across time and across the asset space.
→ See the current macro regime
→ Methodology & threshold table
Compare, cross, place
Three tools extend the classification: one compares two historical moments, one crosses asset-class performance with the regime, one places the major crises on the regime trajectory. They read the same monthly classification series as the live card — so every value is published data, not a projection.
Regime comparator: two moments, side by side
Pick two historical periods and read, side by side, their macro-financial indicators and the classified regime of each. The tool averages nothing: it displays the real values of each moment. Comparing 2008 and 2020, or a cyclical trough and an expansion, clarifies what separates two seemingly close configurations — without drawing a rule from it.
Asset performance by regime: what the context changes
A heatmap crossing the major asset classes (equities, bonds, gold, commodities) with the historical macro regime. It shows how each class behaved in past configurations — distinguishing the cyclical state from financial conditions, because the same slowdown does not have the same effect depending on whether it comes with acute financial stress or not. Colours describe past performance, never portfolio favourability.
→ Open the asset × regime heatmap
Crisis timeline: crisis, destination regime, analysis
A timeline of the major macro-financial crises, each linked to the regime the economy entered and to its detailed analysis. A visual anchor to navigate between episodes and understand which regime each shock tipped into — a descriptive chronology of past events, with no prediction of future crises.
Read the cycle
Beyond the current regime, some leading signals read directly off the long data.
Yield curve inversions: the cycle’s leading signal
A compilation of every 2Y-10Y spread inversion episode since 1976 (FRED), the observed lead times before each recession (NBER) and the associated statistical lessons. Inversion preceded every US recession since 1970, with an average lead of 12-18 months — without being infallible (documented false signals). Data downloadable as CSV.
→ Open the historical analysis of yield curve inversions
For raw series and composite indicators, see also the macro studies hub and the datasets hub.
What these tools show — and what they do not
A macro tool deliberately simplifies reality to surface a dominant mechanism — not to predict. The classification rests on a versioned threshold table: if the thresholds change, regime assignments can change. Asset behaviour by regime describes a limited historical sample (a few cycles), not a stable distribution nor a guarantee. And none of these reads replaces a full analysis: they are instruments for thinking, descriptive, to be cross-checked against the in-depth analyses.
Eco3min tools are designed for educational purposes. They do not constitute investment advice or a personalised recommendation. Every financial decision is the sole responsibility of the reader.
Last updated — 1 June 2026
Disclaimer – Financial Information: The analyses, commentary, and content published on eco3min.fr are provided for informational and educational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investment decisions involve risk and are the sole responsibility of the reader.