A crisis is not defined by what set it off. What actually governed how assets behaved and what room monetary policy had was the macroeconomic regime each crisis tipped the economy into — not the crisis label.

This timeline sorts eleven episodes, from the 1929 crash to the 2022 UK gilt crisis, by their destination regime, across three distinct reading layers: a growth × inflation cell (layer 1), a named overlay such as the Dollar Shortage (layer 2), or a structural frame such as Japan’s secular stagnation (layer 3). Two crises can share the same cell without being alike: 2008 and 2020 both land in a disinflationary slowdown, yet only 2008 carried a Dollar Shortage — that secondary marker is what separates them.

Each episode opens its own analysis page. The measurement status (● measured, ◐ reconstructed, ○ frame) shows how far the classification rests on the monthly engine series, available since 2003, or on a reconstruction of earlier episodes.

Dataviz · Timeline

Major macro-financial crises and their destination regime

Eleven episodes, from the 1929 crash to the 2022 UK gilt crisis, sorted by the macro regime each one tipped the economy into: layer 1 (a growth × inflation cell), layer 2 (a named overlay) or layer 3 (a structural frame). Each episode opens its analysis page.

Regimes
Measurement statusmeasuredreconstructededitorial frame
1929–1933Layer 1 · G−I−1929-09 → 1933-03
1929 Crash and the Great Depression
Disinflationary contractionreconstructed
A durable shift, not a mere slowdown — outside backtest (no engine input before 1967).
1973–1975Layer 1 · G−I+1973-10 → 1975-03
1973 Oil Shock
Stagflation (onset)reconstructed
Outside backtest · inflation proxied (CPI; Trimmed Mean PCE only starts in 1977).
1979–1982Layer 11979-08 → 1982-11
Volcker Disinflation 1979-1982
Disinflationary exit (forced disinflation)reconstructed
1989–2003Layer 3 · frame1989-12 → 2003-12
Japan's Lost Decades 1989-2003
Secular stagnation (frame)editorial frame
Structural frame — not computed by the engine.
1997–1998Layer 2 · overlay1997-07 → 1998-12
1997 Asian Financial Crisis
Dollar Shortage (overlay)reconstructed
Offshore stress, calm US conditions (low NFCI) — no US layer-1 shift · reconstructed overlay (broad dollar proxied pre-2006).
1998Layer 2 · overlay1998-08 → 1998-12
1998 Russia/LTCM Crisis
Dollar Shortage (overlay)reconstructed
Offshore stress, calm US conditions — reconstructed overlay (HY OAS proxied).
2000–2002Layer 1 · G−I=2000-03 → 2002-10
Dot-com Crash 2000-2002
Disinflationary slowdownreconstructed
Outside backtest (pre-2003) · no layer-2 overlay (NFCI < +0.30).
2007–2009Layer 1 · G−I=2007-06 → 2009-06
2008 Financial Crisis
Disinflationary slowdownmeasured
Dollar Shortage overlay — acute stress, Oct. 2008
2010–2012Layer 2 · overlay2010-05 → 2012-09
2010 Eurozone Debt Crisis
Dollar Shortage (overlay)measured
Fiscal dominance — secondary frame (○)
Measured overlay (real broad dollar, post-2006); the fiscal-dominance dimension stays a frame (○).
2020Layer 1 · G−I=2020-02 → 2020-04
2020 Covid Shock
Disinflationary slowdownmeasured
Neutral overlay — NFCI reaches the +0.30 threshold without holding it (no Dollar Shortage, unlike 2008).
2022Layer 1 · G=I+2022-09 → 2022-10
2022 UK Gilt Crisis
Inflationary regime (US)measured
Colour = measured US regime. The UK (LDI) stress is regional, outside the engine — not a global overlay.

Secondary marker: an overlay (e.g. Dollar Shortage on a layer-1 episode) or a structural frame (hatching) layered on top of the main regime without replacing it — this is what distinguishes 2008 (with Dollar Shortage) from 2020 (without).

Descriptive timeline of past episodes, for information only — neither predictive nor prescriptive. The destination regime is a dated, classified state, presented as such; it does not announce the next crisis.

Eco3min classification (layers 1–3) · NFCI, CFNAI-MA3, Trimmed Mean PCE · episodes from the Eco3min Crisis Hub. Monthly engine series since 2003: earlier episodes (◐) are reconstructed, the Japan frame (○) is not computed.

Go deeper

To place these episodes in the present and in the framework that classifies them: the macroeconomic regime measured today, which sets out the growth × inflation grid and the three reading layers.

Destination regimes link to their Atlas pages: disinflationary slowdowns and contractions, inflationary episodes, the Dollar Shortage and secular stagnation.

Last updated — 1 June 2026

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