ULCNFB: US Unit Labor Costs Year-over-Year Growth from FRED (1948–2026)

The US Unit Labor Costs dataset serves year-over-year growth in labor cost per unit of output for the nonfarm business sector, quarterly since 1948. ULC is the wage-price loop in a single series: by construction, it equals compensation growth minus productivity growth — the part of wage pressure that actually reaches prices. The range spans 12.7% at the 1974 peak of the wage-price spiral to 0.5% in early 2026, where strong productivity is absorbing nearly all compensation growth.

Dataset: US Unit Labor Costs Growth (1948–2026) · Updated 2026-01-01

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Productivity & Costs · FRED series ULCNFB

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

A value of 0.49 means labor cost per unit of output rose 0.49% over four quarters. Note: the chart above displays the underlying index level from FRED; the CSV serves the year-over-year growth rate.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying data is available from FRED under series code ULCNFB:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=ULCNFB

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/unit-labor-costs.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/unit-labor-costs.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(f"Latest ULC growth: {df['ulc_yoy'].iloc[-1]:.2f}% YoY")
print(df.tail())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/unit-labor-costs.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

tail(df)
summary(df$ulc_yoy)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

Unit labor costs are computed by the BLS as compensation per hour divided by output per hour in the nonfarm business sector — equivalently, labor compensation per unit of real output. The identity ULC growth ≈ compensation growth − productivity growth holds by construction.

This dataset serves the year-over-year growth of the index (2017 = 100). The BLS headline is the quarter-over-quarter annualized change, which is extremely volatile; the YoY transform is the standard smoothing for trend analysis and is what this CSV contains.

This dataset is updated daily (Mon–Sat, 08:00 UTC) via automated pull from the FRED API; new observations appear with each source release.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

• Release latency. Published with the quarterly Productivity and Costs report, ~5 weeks after quarter end, revised ~1 month later.
• Revisions policy. Heavy — both numerator (compensation, from NIPA) and denominator (output, hours) revise, and quarterly ULC prints can swing by full percentage points between vintages. YoY figures are materially more stable.
• Sector scope. Nonfarm business (~75% of GDP) — excludes government, farms, households, and nonprofits by design.
• Derived-series caveat. ULC inherits the measurement error of three inputs (compensation, output, hours); treat single quarters as provisional.
• Known gaps. None; continuous since 1947 (YoY from 1948).

Common Pitfalls When Using Unit Labor Costs

1. Quoting the quarterly annualized print as trend. QoQ annualized ULC routinely swings from −2% to +5% within a year on measurement noise; the YoY series served here is the readable signal.
2. Reading low ULC as weak wages. ULC of 0.5% can mean stagnant pay or strong productivity — 2026 is the latter. Decompose with the ECI and productivity series before interpreting.
3. Treating the identity as causality. ULC = wages − productivity is arithmetic, not a model; it does not by itself establish that wages drive prices or the reverse.
4. Comparing across sectors. Nonfarm business ULC is not economy-wide labor cost; government and nonprofit compensation are excluded.

Historical Regimes

1948–1965 — The golden-age balance. Strong wage growth met equally strong productivity: ULC growth averaged near 2%, and the wage-price channel stayed quiet for two decades.

1966–1982 — The spiral. Compensation chased accelerating prices while productivity stalled: ULC growth exceeded 8% for much of the period, peaking at 12.7% (1974) — the mechanical core of Great Inflation dynamics.

1983–1995 — Disinflation. The Volcker recessions broke the loop; ULC growth fell to a 2–4% range as indexation faded.

1996–2004 — The productivity dividend. The IT boom pushed productivity above 3%, holding ULC near 1% despite tight labor markets — wage growth without inflation consequence.

2005–2019 — Quiescence. ULC oscillated around 1–2% with brief recession spikes; labor costs disappeared as an inflation concern.

2020–2026 — Spike and absorption. Pandemic distortions and the 2021–22 wage surge drove ULC growth above 6% (mid-2021); by early 2026 it had fallen to 0.5% — the productivity rebound absorbing nearly all remaining compensation growth.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

ULC is a derived series; its two inputs and its target variable are below.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Sources

• US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Productivity and Costs, nonfarm business sector
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED series ULCNFB

Dataset Reference