DGS2: 2-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield Daily Data Since 1976

The DGS2 series, published daily by the Federal Reserve via FRED, tracks the 2-year US Treasury constant maturity yield since June 1976 — over 12,500 daily observations. DGS2 is the bond market’s most operationally important rate for parsing monetary policy expectations: it moves almost lock-step with anticipated changes in the Fed Funds rate over the next eight FOMC meetings, making it the cleanest market signal of where the Fed is going.

Dataset: US 2-Year Treasury Yield (1976–2026) · Updated 2026-07-31

Source: FRED series DGS2 · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying data is available from FRED under series code DGS2:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS2

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-2y-treasury-yield.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-2y-treasury-yield.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df["dgs2"].describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-2y-treasury-yield.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$dgs2)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

The 2-year constant maturity rate (DGS2) is interpolated by the US Treasury from the daily yield curve of outstanding nominal securities, using the standard constant-maturity methodology applied across the Treasury curve. It represents the theoretical yield on a security with exactly 2 years remaining to maturity, derived from market prices of on-the-run and off-the-run Treasury notes.

The series begins in June 1976, when the Treasury first began publishing 2-year constant maturity data. No comparable continuous series exists in FRED prior to that date.

Eco3min mirrors FRED with an automated weekly Saturday pull at 08:00 UTC.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

DGS2 is among the most reliable interest rate series available, with a consistent methodology since June 1976 and direct sourcing from the Federal Reserve’s H.15 release.

• Release latency. The Federal Reserve publishes DGS2 daily, typically around 16:00 ET on business days as part of the H.15 Selected Interest Rates release. Eco3min mirrors FRED with a weekly Saturday pull, so the latest observation reflects the previous business week.
• Revisions policy. Daily constant maturity series are not revised after initial publication. Historical DGS2 values remain unchanged once posted, which makes the series unusually stable for backtesting and historical research.
• Alternative sources. Bloomberg (USGG2YR Index), Refinitiv/LSEG, and Haver Analytics provide the same underlying yield, generally with intraday updates and licensed access. The US Treasury’s daily yield curve also publishes 2-year CMT rates directly via the TreasuryDirect website.
• Known gaps. Daily series excludes weekends and US federal holidays. No data exists prior to June 1, 1976. The series does not include weekly or monthly aggregations — these must be computed from the daily observations.

Always verify the last observation date in the dataset header before any time-sensitive analysis, as the FRED API may lag by 1-2 business days during US federal holiday weeks.

Common Pitfalls When Using DGS2

DGS2 is widely cited but several recurring interpretation errors distort the signal it carries.

1. Confusing yield and price. Bond yields and bond prices move inversely. A rising DGS2 means falling 2-year note prices, not the reverse. Headlines describing “the 2-year yield rallying” often mean the yield fell (and prices rose), which is the opposite of what equity investors expect from the word “rally.”
2. Mixing nominal and real yields. DGS2 is the nominal yield, not adjusted for inflation. For the real 2-year rate, the proper comparator is the inflation-indexed Treasury (TIPS) curve or DGS2 minus expected CPI from breakeven inflation. Treating DGS2 as a real return overstates returns during high-inflation periods.
3. Reading DGS2 as the current Fed Funds rate. DGS2 incorporates expectations of where Fed Funds will be over the next 24 months, not where it stands today. When DGS2 sits below Fed Funds, the bond market is not contradicting the Fed — it is pricing in cuts. The Fed Funds versus DGS2 spread is itself a forecast signal, not a contradiction.
4. Over-interpreting small intraday or single-day moves. DGS2 is a daily close, not a real-time quote. Single-day swings of 10-15 basis points are common in volatile periods, particularly around CPI releases and FOMC meetings. Treating them as standalone signals without referencing rolling averages or surrounding context misses the underlying trend.

Historical Regimes

1976–1981 — Volcker shock. DGS2 spiked above 16% as the Fed raised rates aggressively to combat double-digit inflation. The extreme volatility — DGS2 moved hundreds of basis points in weeks — reflects market uncertainty about the Fed’s commitment under Volcker. The corresponding peak in the federal funds rate reached approximately 19% in 1981.

1981–2000 — Secular decline. DGS2 fell from 16% to roughly 6% as inflation came down. Each economic cycle produced a lower peak. The relationship between DGS2 and the US CPI inflation rate tightened over this period as the Fed’s anti-inflation credibility consolidated.

2001–2019 — Zero-bound era. DGS2 dropped below 1% after the 2001 and 2008 recessions, spending most of the 2010s between 0.2% and 2.5%. The Fed’s extended zero-rate policy and forward guidance kept the entire short end of the curve compressed. For analytical context on this period, see the research Yield Curve Inversion Analysis — Complete History of the 2s10s Spread.

2022–2024 — Fastest tightening cycle in modern history. DGS2 surged from 0.7% to above 5% in barely 18 months — the fastest move since Volcker — as the Fed raised the Fed Funds rate from 0% to 5.25-5.50%. The 10Y–2Y curve inverted for the longest sustained period on record. The Eco3min study 2Y Treasury Leads Fed Pivots documents how DGS2 historically peaks 6-12 months before the Fed cuts.

2024–2026 — Easing path. DGS2 traced the path of anticipated Fed cuts, with each FOMC meeting and CPI release producing visible repricing across the short end of the curve. Cross-referencing DGS2 with the 3-month Treasury bill isolates the policy-anticipation component embedded in the 2-year yield.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

DGS2 sits at the short end of the Treasury curve, anchoring Fed Funds expectations and feeding into recession-signal spreads. Cross-reference with the following datasets to triangulate the macro regime.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — H.15 Selected Interest Rates
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED series DGS2
• US Department of the Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates

Dataset Reference

Eco3min Research. (2026). US 2-Year Treasury Yield — DGS2 Daily Constant Maturity (1976–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/us-2-year-treasury-yield-dataset/