A191RL1Q225SBEA: Real US GDP Quarterly Growth Rate, Annualized QoQ (1947–2026)

The A191RL1Q225SBEA series, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and distributed via FRED, tracks the quarterly real US GDP growth rate annualized at quarter-over-quarter pace since 1947. A191RL1Q225SBEA is the headline output gauge used to date NBER recessions, calibrate fiscal projections, and benchmark every other macro indicator. The bundled dataset also includes nominal GDP levels and year-over-year real growth.

Dataset: US GDP Growth Rate (1947–2026) · Updated —

Source: FRED series GDP · Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) via FRED

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying data is available from FRED under series code A191RL1Q225SBEA (real GDP, percent change annualized) and GDP (nominal level):

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=A191RL1Q225SBEA
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=GDP

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-gdp-growth.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-gdp-growth.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df["gdp_billions"].describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-gdp-growth.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$gdp_billions)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

A191RL1Q225SBEA is computed by the BEA as the percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter, expressed at an annual rate and seasonally adjusted. Real GDP is built from the expenditure approach (consumption + investment + government + net exports), chained to 2017 dollars using Fisher chain-weighted indexes. The companion nominal GDP series (FRED code GDP) provides the unchained level in current dollars.

BEA publishes three estimates per quarter: an advance release approximately one month after quarter-end, a second estimate around two months out, and a third estimate around three months out. Annual updates each July incorporate revised source data from tax returns, agricultural censuses and benchmark surveys. Comprehensive revisions occur roughly every five years and can reshape the historical profile back to 1929.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

A191RL1Q225SBEA carries one of the cleanest revision histories among quarterly macro series, but the multi-step release schedule means the same quarter can change meaningfully across the first three publications. The Eco3min mirror pulls from FRED on a daily cadence; new prints are reflected within 24 hours of BEA release.

• Release latency. BEA publishes the advance estimate roughly 25–30 days after quarter-end (e.g., Q1 advance around late April). Second estimate ≈60 days, third estimate ≈90 days. Each release supersedes the previous.
• Revisions policy. Routine revisions affect the most recent quarters at each release. Annual revisions in late July rework the prior three years. Comprehensive revisions (every five years on average) can revise the full historical series; for vintage data, use FRED ALFRED.
• Alternative sources. Bloomberg (GDP CQOQ Index), Refinitiv/LSEG, and Haver Analytics carry the identical BEA underlying data with different ticker conventions. ALFRED preserves real-time vintages, which matter for backtesting policy rules or forecasting models.
• Known gaps. None within the post-1947 quarterly series. Earlier historical estimates exist (BEA, Maddison) but use different methodology and are not part of A191RL1Q225SBEA.

Before running cycle-dating exercises or comparing growth across decades, check that you are working with the most recent annual revision — the BEA periodically rebases real series, which can shift YoY computations by several tenths of a point.

Common Pitfalls When Using A191RL1Q225SBEA

A191RL1Q225SBEA is the most-cited US economic statistic, which means it is also the most frequently misread. Four interpretation errors recur.

1. Confusing annualized QoQ with YoY. A191RL1Q225SBEA is the QoQ change annualized; A191RO1Q156NBEA and similar codes report YoY change. The two can diverge sharply at turning points — a YoY print can stay positive while annualized QoQ has already turned negative, or vice versa.
2. Treating the advance estimate as final. First-release revisions average around 0.5 percentage points in either direction; for individual quarters the gap between advance and third estimate has exceeded 2 points. Any cycle classification based on a single advance print is provisional.
3. Confusing real and nominal growth. A191RL1Q225SBEA is the real (price-adjusted) series. Nominal GDP growth incorporates the GDP deflator and can run several points higher during inflationary episodes. Headlines often conflate the two when discussing “GDP growth”.
4. Using the two-quarter rule as official recession dating. Two consecutive negative annualized QoQ prints is a press shorthand, not the NBER definition. The NBER committee weighs payrolls, real income, industrial production and trade flows alongside GDP, and dates recessions retrospectively with multi-month lags.

Historical Regimes

1947–1969 — Post-war expansion. A191RL1Q225SBEA averaged near 4% per year, punctuated by short and shallow contractions (1948–49, 1953–54, 1957–58, 1960–61). The combination of pent-up demand, capital formation and a young labour force produced the highest sustained growth in the modern US record.

1970–1982 — Stagflation era. Two oil shocks (1973, 1979) and policy lurches between accommodation and Volcker disinflation produced the most volatile growth regime since the Depression. A191RL1Q225SBEA recorded back-to-back contractions in 1980 and 1981–82, with growth swings of more than 10 percentage points within a single year. The US Industrial Production Index tracked the same cycle with greater amplitude.

1983–2000 — Great Moderation. A191RL1Q225SBEA averaged 3.4% with materially lower variance. Only one mild recession (1990–91) interrupted a near two-decade expansion. The disinflation, productivity acceleration (1995–2000) and globalization of supply chains structurally compressed cyclical volatility.

2001–2007 — Pre-GFC slowdown. Average growth slipped to around 2.7%. The 2001 recession was the shallowest on record by GDP standards; the subsequent expansion was the weakest of the post-war period before the GFC ended it.

2008–2009 — Great Recession. A191RL1Q225SBEA recorded its deepest peacetime contraction since 1947, reaching -8.5% annualized in 2008 Q4. Cumulative real GDP loss from peak to trough exceeded 4%, and the recovery to the prior peak took roughly 13 quarters. The trajectory was anticipated by the US federal debt to GDP ratio trend break that followed.

2010–2019 — Slow-trend expansion. The longest expansion on record paired with the lowest average growth of any expansion (2.3%). A191RL1Q225SBEA never exceeded 4% on a sustained basis, despite tight labour markets after 2016. Productivity growth and labour force participation explained most of the gap versus prior cycles.

2020–2026 — Pandemic shock and rebound. The Q2 2020 annualized contraction of approximately -29% was the deepest single-quarter print in the series; the Q3 2020 rebound of +35% was the largest single-quarter gain. The post-2022 trend has settled in a 1.5–3% channel as fiscal impulse faded and monetary tightening propagated.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

A191RL1Q225SBEA is the outcome variable of the US business cycle, published quarterly and revised repeatedly. Leading indicators (PMIs, yield curves, credit spreads) signal GDP turning points before the BEA print confirms them; coincident indicators (industrial production, employment) move with GDP in real time.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — FRED series A191RL1Q225SBEA (real GDP percent change, annualized) and GDP (nominal level)

Dataset Reference

Eco3min Research. (2026). US GDP Growth Rate — A191RL1Q225SBEA (1947–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/us-gdp-growth-rate-dataset/