Eco3min US Inflation Regime Score (2003–2026)

The eco3min Inflation Regime Score (US) is a monthly composite indicator combining headline CPI, core CPI, and 5Y5Y forward inflation expectations into a single weighted reading, mapped to five inflation regimes calibrated on the eco3min framework. Built from three public FRED series and updated monthly after each BLS CPI release, this dataset provides a one-number diagnostic of where the US inflation system stands at any given moment — Deflation, Disinflation, Target, Elevated, or Very High.

Dataset: eco3min Inflation Regime Score (US) · Updated 2026-03-01

Source: FRED series CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL, T5YIFR · Eco3min composite calculation · Score = 0.50 × CPI YoY + 0.30 × Core CPI YoY + 0.20 × 5Y5Y BE

Macro Takeaway

This Month’s Diagnosis — March 2026

The eco3min Score reads 2.91 in March 2026 — at the upper boundary of the Target zone (1.5–3.0). This is the first significant rebound since the return to Target in September 2024, ending a 6-month period of stable readings around 2.4.

The decomposition reveals an energy-driven tension rather than a broad inflation re-acceleration:

Headline CPI jumped from 2.4% (February) to 3.3% (March), driven by a 21% increase in gasoline prices linked to Iran-related supply disruptions. Core CPI remains contained at 2.6% — the system has not flipped back to Elevated. The score reflects this nuance precisely: 2.91 stays under the 3.0 threshold, but only barely. Any persistence of the energy shock with spillover into energy-intensive services would push the score into Elevated territory for the first time since August 2024.

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns. Each row represents one month.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset spans 23 years of monthly readings — every regime transition since the inception of the 5Y5Y forward breakeven series in January 2003.

Direct CSV Access

The complete dataset is available at a stable URL for direct integration into Python, R, or BI tools:

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/score-eco3min.csv

No signup or API key required. Updated automatically the day after each BLS CPI release (typically the 13th of the month).

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/score-eco3min.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"], index_col="date")

# Latest reading
latest = df.iloc[-1]
print(f"Score: {latest['score']:.2f}  ({latest['regime_name']})")
print(f"Date: {latest.name.strftime('%B %Y')}")

# Months spent in Elevated regime since 2003
elevated = df[df["regime_id"] == "elevated"]
print(f"Months in Elevated: {len(elevated)}")

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/score-eco3min.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

# Latest reading
tail(df, 1)

# Distribution across regimes
table(df$regime_name)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download required.

Methodology

Formula

The eco3min Score is a weighted average of three public US inflation indicators:

Score = 0.50 × Headline CPI YoY
      + 0.30 × Core CPI YoY
      + 0.20 × 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven

Why these three indicators

No single inflation indicator captures the full picture. The composite combines three distinct angles:

• Headline CPI measures what households actually pay, including food and energy. It is inflation as experienced.
• Core CPI strips out food and energy to reveal whether inflation has diffused into the broader economy (services, shelter, durable goods).
• 5Y5Y Forward Breakeven is the market-implied average inflation expected for the 2031–2036 period. It is the forward-looking signal indicating whether expectations remain anchored.

The gap between the three components is itself informative. A score of 4 with CPI at 8% and Core at 2% tells one story (transitory energy shock). The same 4 with CPI at 4% and Core at 4% tells another (durably diffused inflation).

Why these weights (50 / 30 / 20)

The weighting prioritizes observed inflation over expectations, and raw measurement over filtered measurement:

• 50% Headline CPI — the reference measure: what appears in headlines, anchors wage demands, and determines real purchasing power erosion.
• 30% Core CPI — filters energy noise without entirely replacing CPI. A persistent gap between Headline and Core is itself a signal.
• 20% 5Y5Y Breakeven — minority weight because market expectations can be noisy (flight-to-quality effects, technical TIPS arbitrages), but their persistent drift remains one of the best predictors of future inflationary regimes.

Weights are fixed by construction — no re-optimization, no back-fitting.

Data sources

The score is computable from January 2003, the inception date of the T5YIFR series at the St. Louis Fed. The chart above extends the trajectory back to 2000 for illustrative purposes using available alternative components; the downloadable CSV starts in January 2003.

Mapping to the 5 regimes

Thresholds are identical to those in the eco3min inflation framework for direct cross-reference.

Update schedule

The pipeline pulls the three FRED series via the FRED API every business day at 08:00 UTC (Mon–Sat). The score value changes once per month, the day after the BLS CPI release (typically the 12th–14th). Between releases, the score stays at its last official value — the 5Y5Y component moves daily but its 20% weight and monthly averaging stabilize the indicator.

How to Read the Score

Historical Reading: 23 Years Through Five Regimes

Over 23 years of monthly observations, the score has traversed all five regimes defined by the eco3min framework:

2003–2007 — Late Great Moderation. Oscillation around 2.5–3.0, at the Target / Elevated boundary. The Fed’s 2% target was technically reached but never durably below.

2008 — Oil and food spike. Peak around 4.0 mid-2008, driven by crude oil reaching $145/barrel and a global food crisis. The system briefly entered Elevated.

Q1 2009 — Deflation scare. Collapse to −0.3 in the post-Lehman shock. First and only deflationary episode of the period. Lasted only one quarter as Fed QE1 stabilized expectations.

2010–2019 — Calm decade. Trajectory in the Disinflation/Target zone, around 1.5–2.0. The Fed almost never reached its 2% PCE target. Multiple episodes of brief Disinflation (2015 oil collapse, 2019 trade tensions).

April 2021 — August 2024 — The post-pandemic surge. 41 consecutive months in Elevated zone. Peak at 6.5 mid-2022. Longest streak in Elevated since the series began. The Fed’s “transitory” framing failed precisely when the score crossed 4.0 in mid-2021.

September 2024 — Return to Target. First reading below 3.0 since the surge began.

March 2026 — Iran energy shock. Score rebounds to 2.91 — upper boundary of Target — driven by gasoline price spike. Core CPI remains contained at 2.6%, suggesting an energy-driven shock rather than broad re-acceleration.

Key insight: over 23 years, the score has spent only about 34 months in the strict Target zone (1.5–3.0). Most of the time, the system has been either in Disinflation (below) or Elevated (above). The “Fed 2% target” is a theoretical objective rarely achieved in practice.

Methodological Limitations

• US coverage only. The score does not apply to the Eurozone, UK, or emerging markets. A transposition would require equivalent components (HICP, ECB 5Y5Y) with recalibrated weights.
• No sectoral diffusion measure. Two situations with score = 3.0 may mask different realities: inflation concentrated in energy versus inflation diffused across 70% of the basket. The Cleveland Fed Median CPI or sectoral dispersion would complement the reading.
• 5Y5Y Forward potentially noisy short-term. Market expectations can be perturbed by technical TIPS arbitrages. The 20% weight limits the impact, but in extreme months (March 2020, March 2023) the score can over-react.

The score is deliberately simple. Adding components (sticky CPI, trimmed mean, M2 growth) would marginally improve precision at the cost of readability and reproducibility.

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Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub

Sources

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPIAUCSL, CPILFESL)
• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR)
• Eco3min Research — Composite scoring methodology and regime classification

Dataset Reference

Eco3min Research. (2026). eco3min Inflation Regime Score (US) — Monthly composite indicator (2003–2026).<br> https://eco3min.fr/en/eco3min-inflation-regime-score-us-dataset/