T10YIE: Daily 10-Year US Breakeven Inflation Rate from FRED (2003–2026)

This dataset covers T10YIE daily since January 2003 — over 5,000 observations across every inflation regime since the TIPS market matured.

Dataset: US 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (2003–2026) · Updated 2026-08-03

Source: FRED series T10YIE · Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying data is available from FRED under series code T10YIE:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=T10YIE

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-inflation-expectations-10y.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-inflation-expectations-10y.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df["breakeven_10y"].describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-inflation-expectations-10y.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df$breakeven_10y)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

T10YIE is computed by the Federal Reserve as the arithmetic difference between the 10-year nominal Treasury constant maturity yield (FRED series DGS10) and the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) constant maturity yield (FRED series DFII10), expressed in percent. Both constant maturity series are derived from the Treasury’s daily fitted yield curves, which interpolate across outstanding nominal and TIPS issues respectively.

Theoretically, the breakeven embeds the market’s expected average CPI inflation over the next 10 years, plus an inflation risk premium (positive in equilibrium, as investors demand compensation for inflation uncertainty), minus a TIPS liquidity premium (TIPS trade in a smaller, less liquid market than nominal Treasuries, so their yield is biased upward in stress, depressing the breakeven). The series is published daily under the H.15 release, is not seasonally adjusted, and is not revised once published.

Data Quality & Provider Notes

T10YIE is mechanically constructed from two H.15 components and is among the more stable derived series in the FRED catalogue, but its interpretation requires more care than a typical Treasury yield series because of the embedded risk and liquidity premiums.

• Release latency. The Federal Reserve publishes the H.15 components around 4:15 PM Eastern Time on each US business day; T10YIE is typically available on FRED within minutes thereafter. Eco3min mirrors FRED with a daily automated pull.
• Revisions policy. The series is not revised once published. Both legs (DGS10 and DFII10) are derived from observed market quotes, so post-publication corrections are limited to same-day data-feed fixes.
• Alternative sources. Bloomberg, Refinitiv (LSEG) and Haver Analytics distribute the same H.15 components under their own tickers, with intraday refresh rather than the once-daily FRED snapshot. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publishes an alternative inflation expectations series (Haubrich–Pennacchi–Ritchken model) that attempts to extract pure expected inflation from breakevens by stripping out the risk and liquidity premiums.
• Known gaps. No observations on weekends or US federal holidays. The TIPS market was significantly smaller and less liquid before 2005; readings from 2003 to early 2005 carry a larger liquidity-premium distortion than later observations. The October 2008 episode is a well-documented outlier: TIPS yields spiked due to liquidity shock, briefly pushing T10YIE near zero in a way that did not reflect a collapse in actual inflation expectations.

Before using T10YIE in macro analysis, check the last observation date and consider cross-referencing with the Cleveland Fed expectations series or with survey-based measures (University of Michigan, NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations) for periods of TIPS market stress.

Common Pitfalls When Using T10YIE

T10YIE is one of the most-cited inflation indicators, but several recurring interpretation errors distort the signal — particularly during episodes of market stress.

1. Confusing breakeven with realized inflation. T10YIE captures what the bond market expects CPI inflation to average over the next 10 years; it is not a measure of actual current or recent inflation. Realized inflation is measured by CPI and PCE, and forecast accuracy of T10YIE should always be assessed ex post against those realized series, not assumed.
2. Ignoring the TIPS liquidity premium. Because TIPS trade in a smaller and less liquid market than nominal Treasuries, their yields rise more than nominals during liquidity stress, mechanically depressing T10YIE. The October–November 2008 collapse of T10YIE toward zero reflected a TIPS liquidity shock far more than a genuine collapse in expected inflation, as confirmed by survey measures of the same period.
3. Reading short-term spikes as Fed credibility loss. Sharp moves in T10YIE often reflect oil-price passthrough, currency moves, or supply shocks rather than a structural de-anchoring of long-term expectations. The 2022 peak above 3% coincided with the energy price shock following the invasion of Ukraine; T10YIE normalized back toward 2.3–2.4% as the energy shock faded, without intervening Fed action targeted at expectations specifically.
4. Confusing the 10-year spot breakeven with the 5y5y forward. T10YIE is the spot 10-year average; the 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectation rate (FRED series T5YIFR) strips out the next 5 years and measures expectations for the 5-year window starting 5 years out. The forward measure is the Fed’s preferred long-run anchor and behaves differently from T10YIE in cyclical episodes.

Historical Regimes

2003–2007 — Anchored launch period. T10YIE fluctuated in a narrow 2.3%–2.6% range through the mid-2000s, consistent with the Fed’s then-implicit 2% PCE objective once converted to CPI-equivalent terms (CPI typically runs 30–50 basis points above PCE). The TIPS market was still maturing during this period and liquidity premiums were larger than in later years.

2008 — TIPS liquidity shock. Following the Lehman collapse, T10YIE collapsed from approximately 2.4% in early September 2008 to a low of 0.04% on 20 November 2008. The move was driven primarily by a TIPS liquidity shock rather than a genuine market expectation of zero inflation over the next decade — survey-based measures of inflation expectations remained anchored around 2% through the same period.

2009–2014 — Post-GFC normalization. As TIPS liquidity returned and the Fed deployed large-scale asset purchases, T10YIE recovered into a 2.0%–2.5% range. The Fed adopted an explicit 2% PCE inflation target in January 2012; T10YIE remained consistent with this target throughout the period, supporting the assessment that long-term expectations stayed anchored.

2015–2016 — Oil-driven decline. The 2014–2016 collapse in oil prices, combined with broad commodity weakness, dragged T10YIE down to a low near 1.2% in February 2016 — the lowest reading since the 2008 episode. The move occurred without measurable softening of survey-based long-term expectations, illustrating the sensitivity of T10YIE to commodity-driven CPI pass-through. The relationship between term structure of breakevens during this period is analysed in the inflation breakeven term structure study.

2017–2019 — Range-bound below target. T10YIE stabilized in a 1.7%–2.1% range, persistently below the Fed’s 2% PCE target after CPI–PCE conversion. This sustained gap was one of the motivating factors behind the Fed’s 2020 framework review and the move to Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT).

2020 — COVID dislocation and reset. T10YIE briefly fell to 0.5% in March 2020 during the COVID liquidity shock — again, a TIPS liquidity-driven move rather than a true expectations collapse. The recovery was sharp: by year-end 2020, T10YIE was back near 2.0%, and the subsequent surge into 2021 began. A broader view: The case for TIPS or nominal Treasuries.

2021–2022 — Post-pandemic surge. T10YIE rose continuously from approximately 2.0% in early 2021 to a peak of 3.02% on 25 April 2022, the highest level in the series’ history. The surge tracked the post-pandemic CPI shock, supply chain disruptions, and the energy price spike that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The 5-year breakeven (T5YIE) moved further and faster than T10YIE, consistent with shorter-horizon breakevens carrying more cyclical signal.

2023–2024 — Re-anchoring. As the Fed’s hiking cycle and the energy normalization fed through, T10YIE declined back into a 2.2%–2.4% range — broadly consistent with the Fed’s 2% PCE target on a CPI-equivalent basis. The relative speed of re-anchoring (faster than realized core inflation) was a key piece of evidence cited by Fed communications in favour of long-term expectations having remained anchored throughout the 2021–2022 inflation episode.

2025–2026 — Stable target-consistent range. T10YIE has remained anchored in a roughly 2.2%–2.5% range through 2025 and into 2026, with the Fed having pivoted to a cutting cycle in late 2024. The stability of T10YIE around target levels through the rate normalization is being studied as evidence of expectations credibility surviving the 2021–2022 shock. The post-cycle behaviour of the series through this normalization phase is examined in our reading of the 2024–2026 anchoring regime.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

T10YIE is mechanically derived from a Treasury yield decomposition and sits at the centre of a network of related inflation and rate series — its companion at the 5-year tenor, the nominal and real yields it decomposes from, and the realized inflation measures it forecasts.

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Sources

• Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — FRED database (series T10YIE, DGS10, DFII10)
• Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — H.15 Selected Interest Rates
• US Treasury — TIPS issuance and outstanding
• Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland — Inflation expectations model (Haubrich–Pennacchi–Ritchken)

Dataset Reference