Macroeconomic Barometer — June 2026
eco3min · macroeconomic barometer
Barometer — June 2026
Data as of June 1, 2026
Macro reading — June 2026
May extended a mixed, transitional configuration in the United States: inflation kept accelerating while growth was revised lower. US CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year in April (vs 3.3% in March) — its highest since May 2023 — with energy alone accounting for more than 40% of the monthly increase; in the euro area, Eurostat’s June 2 flash estimate lifted HICP to 3.2% in May (vs 3.0% in April), the highest since September 2023. At the same time, the BEA’s second estimate revised first-quarter US growth lower, from +2.0% to +1.6% at an annual rate. The Eco3min regime classifier reads “Transition / Mixed signals”: growth on trend, underlying inflation (Trimmed Mean PCE 2.3%) near target, financial conditions accommodating.
Two qualifications temper the picture. First, the energy shock is cooling: after a Brent peak near $138 on April 7 (EIA), the barrel fell back to about $96 by June 1 — down roughly 15% on the month — even as its year-over-year gain (~+49%) continues to feed headline inflation. Second, equities set fresh records: the S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12 on May 1, then 7,580.06 on May 29, the Dow Jones clearing 51,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq gaining about 8% on the month, driven by the AI theme. Finally, a major institutional change: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell; his first FOMC meeting will be held June 16-17.
All data presented here come from public institutional sources (BLS, BEA, Fed, FRED, Dallas Fed, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S. Department of Labor). No forecast or investment recommendation is made.
Cycle signals — institutional indicators
−0.51
avg. = 0NFCI — Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
A composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, the banking system). A negative reading indicates financial conditions looser than the historical average since 1971. The index stayed accommodating and broadly stable over the month, around −0.51 in late May (vs −0.52 in late April): despite the oil shock and the rise in long-term yields, credit risk premia and equity volatility remained contained. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (series NFCI, latest weekly reading available).
0.13
threshold = 0.50Sahm rule — real-time recession indicator
Developed by Claudia Sahm (formerly at the Fed). It measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its low over the prior 12 months. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the start of every recession since 1950. The real-time April 2026 reading comes in at 0.13, down from 0.20 in March, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Source: FRED, series SAHMREALTIME.
0.015
threshold = 0.20SOS — Scavette-O’Trakoun Sahm-style indicator (Richmond Fed)
A weekly variant of the Sahm rule using the insured unemployment rate. Developed by O’Trakoun (Richmond Fed) and Scavette (Philadelphia Fed), published in Economics Letters 2025. The underlying series is published in our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. Recession threshold: 0.20. The latest published value (mid-April 2026) comes in at 0.015 — well below the threshold; the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2% in May, with no sign of deterioration. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (latest value available — to refresh before publishing).
These indicators are designed to detect recession and financial stress. They are not trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical benchmarks, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.
Yield curve spread and the Sahm rule
US yield curve spread (10Y − 2Y) and the Sahm rule. A curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most US recessions. The Sahm rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Financial conditions — NFCI
The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). A composite of 105 variables spanning money markets, debt, equities and the banking system. A positive value = historically tighter conditions. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
Factual highlights — May 2026
Leadership transition at the Fed. Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 (54-45, the most divided vote in history for a Fed chair, with only Democratic senator John Fetterman crossing over), then sworn in on May 22 as the 17th Chair of the Board of Governors, his term beginning at the expiry of Jerome Powell’s chairmanship on May 15. Powell remains a member of the Board of Governors; he has indicated he intends to stay until the investigation into the Fed headquarters renovation is concluded. The DOJ probe of Powell was dropped. The fed funds range stays at 3.50–3.75%, unchanged over the past three meetings. Warsh’s first FOMC meeting is set for June 16-17. Source: Federal Reserve Board; Senate records, May 2026.
ECB — no May meeting. The Governing Council did not meet in May (last decision April 30, next on June 11). The three policy rates remain unchanged: deposit facility at 2.00%, main refinancing operations at 2.15%, marginal lending facility at 2.40%. The account of the April meeting, published in May, notes that some members were open to a rate hike and that the ECB judged the energy-price shock “large and highly persistent.” Source: ECB, monetary policy account, May 2026.
Inflation. US CPI for April (released May 12) came in at 3.8% year-over-year (vs 3.3% in March), with core CPI at 2.8% — its strongest monthly gain (+0.4%) since January 2025. Energy prices rose 3.8% on the month (+17.9% year-over-year) and account for more than 40% of the headline increase; gasoline is up 28.4% year-over-year. In the euro area, Eurostat’s June 2 flash estimate puts HICP at 3.2% year-over-year in May (vs 3.0% in April) — the highest since September 2023 — with core inflation rising to 2.5% (vs 2.2% in April) and energy at 10.9%. In France, May HICP comes in at 2.8%. Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index – April 2026; Eurostat, flash estimate, June 2, 2026.
Growth. The BEA’s second estimate (May 28) revises US Q1 2026 GDP to +1.6% at an annual rate (vs +2.0% in the advance estimate), after +0.5% in Q4 2025. The downward revision (−0.4 point) mainly reflects revisions to investment and consumer spending. The Q1 PCE price index came in at 4.5% (core 4.4%). On a monthly basis, April PCE rose 0.5% and household income was roughly flat. In the euro area, Q1 2026 GDP is estimated at +0.1% quarter-over-quarter (Eurostat preliminary estimate). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Second Estimate), Q1 2026.
Employment. The April jobs report (released May 8) shows +115,000 payrolls, after an upward revision to March (to +185,000) and a downward revision to February (to −156,000). The unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, average hourly earnings rise 3.6% year-over-year. Over the first four months of 2026, average monthly gains stand at 76,000 (vs 122,000 in 2024). Weekly initial jobless claims remain contained (215,000 for the week ending May 23, four-week moving average of 209,000). Source: BLS, The Employment Situation – April 2026; U.S. Department of Labor.
Energy and geopolitics. The US–Iran conflict, opened on February 28, continues, with a ceasefire tested in late May. Brent, after a peak near $138 on April 7 (EIA), retreated to about $96 by June 1 (–~15% on the month); WTI trades around $93. The United Arab Emirates left OPEC effective May 1. The US average gasoline price is $4.56 a gallon (AAA), up from $2.98 on February 28. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook; AAA; news agencies.
Employment — weekly initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. The highest-frequency US macro indicator and the earliest warning signal for the labor market, ahead of the monthly jobs report (NFP). For the week ending May 23, 2026, ICSA = 215,000 (four-week moving average: 209,000). Data: FRED (ICSA).
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Equity indices — month-end closes
| Index | Level | Closing date | Monthly trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 Euronext Paris | ~8,164 | ≈ 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Euro area | ~6,060 | ≈ 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
| DAX Deutsche Börse | ~24,848 | ≈ 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
| FTSE 100 London Stock Exchange | ~10,351 | ≈ 05/29/2026 | → |
| S&P 500 NYSE / NASDAQ | 7,580.06 | 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
| Nasdaq Composite US technology | 26,972.62 | 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
| Dow Jones 30 industrials | 51,032.46 | 05/29/2026 | ↑ |
Closing levels for the last trading day of May (05/29/2026). US indices at the official close; European levels indicative (sourced from Yahoo Finance) at the following session’s open. Arrows reflect the trend observed over the month and have no predictive value.
Rates, commodities, volatility
| Asset | Level | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 2-year Sensitive to Fed expectations | 4.13% | 05/22/2026 | FRED (DGS2) · H.15 |
| US Treasury 10-year Benchmark sovereign yield | 4.56% | 05/22/2026 | FRED (DGS10) · H.15 |
| Spread 10Y − 2Y Curve slope | +0.43 pp | 05/22/2026 | FRED (T10Y2Y) |
| 30-year mortgage rate Freddie Mac · to refresh | ~6.4% | ≈ 05/28/2026 | FRED (MORTGAGE30US) |
| HY OAS spread ICE BofA US High Yield | 2.72% | 06/01/2026 | FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2) |
| VIX S&P 500 implied volatility | ~16.4 | ≈ 06/01/2026 | CBOE |
| Gold (spot) USD/oz | ~$4,500 | ≈ 06/01/2026 | London Bullion |
| Brent ICE | ~$96 | 06/01/2026 | ICE Futures / EIA |
| WTI NYMEX | ~$93 | ≈ 06/01/2026 | NYMEX |
Brent (~$96) remains about 49% above its level a year ago and well above its pre–February 28, 2026 levels, despite a roughly 15% pullback on the month from the April peak. The US yield curve has no longer been inverted since the summer of 2024 (10Y−2Y slope of +0.4 pp). Indicative values, subject to revision; month-end market levels.
Policy rates and bond yields
The Fed policy rate (Fed Funds), 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Credit spread — High Yield
The option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US High Yield index measures the risk premium investors require to hold high-yield corporate debt over government bonds. As of June 1, 2026, the OAS comes in at 2.72% (272 bps) — a historically low level (long-run average ~5.5%) despite the geopolitical backdrop. Data: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2).
Source: ICE Data Indices via FRED
Macroeconomic indicators — latest releases
United States
Euro area
Inflation and expectations
Market-implied inflation expectations: 10-year breakeven (T10YIE) at about 2.40% (the gap between nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year yields, H.15 of May 22), 10-year real interest rate (DFII10) at 2.16%, and the 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR) around 2.3%. The 5Y5Y forward is the Fed’s preferred gauge of long-term expectations anchoring; it remains close to target despite the energy shock. Data: FRED.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Analytical framework — the month’s factual elements
The data available at the end of May describe a mixed, transitional configuration, marked by the coexistence of growth that is slowing but remains on trend, headline inflation accelerating under the energy shock, and cycle indicators that stay far from recession thresholds.
On activity: the downward revision of US Q1 2026 GDP, from +2.0% to +1.6% at an annual rate, reflects weaker-than-estimated contributions from investment and consumer spending. The rebound from Q4 2025 (+0.5%) remains real — supported by exports, investment, consumption and government spending — but less vigorous. In the euro area, growth stays very modest at +0.1% in Q1.
On employment: the April jobs report (+115,000) confirms a gradual slowdown without a break. The unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, but the four-month average of payroll gains (76,000) is well below 2024 (122,000). Weekly claims (215,000 on May 23), the Sahm rule (0.13) and the SOS stay far from their respective thresholds: the dynamic is one of a labor market cooling slowly, in an environment of low hiring and low layoffs.
On inflation: the energy shock is now clearly passing through to headline indices (US CPI 3.8%, euro area HICP 3.2%), and core inflation has firmed (US core CPI 2.8%, euro area core HICP 2.5%, rising). By contrast, the underlying gauge favoured by the Eco3min classifier — the Trimmed Mean PCE — remains at 2.3%, near target: it is this gap between felt (headline) inflation and persistent inflation that triggers the regime’s divergence flag. Long-term expectations (5Y5Y forward around 2.3%) stay anchored.
On central banks: the Fed underwent a transition at its chairmanship — Kevin Warsh succeeded Jerome Powell on May 22, his first FOMC meeting set for June 16-17 (with an updated set of economic projections and dot plot). The ECB, which did not meet in May, decides on June 11; its April account showed a debate over a rate hike. The common tension remains a dilemma between energy inflation and fragile growth, to which the United States adds a slowing labor market.
Key items to watch — June–July 2026 calendar
Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo
Net liquidity equals total Federal Reserve assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo operations (RRP). As of May 28, 2026 (latest H.4.1 release), the RRP remains near zero; the TGA, swollen by the April tax season, is starting to normalize, which mechanically weighs on net liquidity. The precise weekly components (WALCL, TGA, net liquidity) should be read off the H.4.1 release of May 28 before publishing. Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).
Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury via FRED
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Monetary policy Yield curve Liquidity & financial conditions Financial markets Commodities Macroeconomics & geopoliticsThis barometer is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed). The cycle and financial-conditions indicators are presented with their documented definitions and historical thresholds, with no predictive interpretation.
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Last updated — 2 July 2026
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