Macroeconomic Bulletin — March 2026 Archive
March 2026 macroeconomic bulletin: cycle signals (NFCI, Sahm Rule, SOS), market climate, and US/eurozone macro indicators. Sourced from FRED, BLS, ECB, Chicago and Richmond Feds.
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March 2026 · Cutoff date: March 14, 2026
Macroeconomic reading — March 2026
This bulletin offers an independent monthly macroeconomic reading, designed to be tracked over time. It compiles the main cycle, financial conditions, and market indicators with their institutional sources. The objective is to distinguish cyclical adjustments from structural shifts in the business cycle — accounting for the fact that financial markets and the real economy never move in lockstep, which creates persistent lags in signal interpretation, and drawing on the reading of macro-financial indicators.
The data presented below are factual and drawn from public sources (FRED, ECB, BLS, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed). They do not constitute predictive analysis or investment advice in any form.
Cycle signals — institutional indicators
−0.51
avg. = 0NFCI — Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index
Composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, banking system). Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. A negative value historically indicates more accommodative financial conditions than average; a positive value, more restrictive conditions. Week of March 7, 2026.
0.43
threshold = 0.50Sahm Rule — real-time recession indicator
Developed by economist Claudia Sahm (former Fed). Measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its 12-month low. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the start of every recession since 1950 (one exception in 1959).
0.05
threshold = 0.20SOS — Scavette-O’Trakoun-Sahm-style Indicator (Richmond Fed)
Weekly variant of the Sahm Rule using the insured unemployment rate. Developed by the Richmond and Philadelphia Feds (O’Trakoun & Scavette, Economics Letters, 2025). Recession threshold: 0.20. Week of February 28, 2026.
These indicators are designed for recession and financial stress detection. They are not trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical reference points, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.
Factual focus points — March 2026
According to BLS data (release of March 7, 2026), US non-farm payrolls (NFP) printed negative in February 2026. The unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, up from its recent low. The Sahm Rule sits below its historical 0.50 trigger, but has risen over recent months.
In parallel, the Chicago Fed NFCI remains in negative territory (−0.51 as of March 7), pointing to financial conditions historically more accommodative than average. The high yield credit spread and the VIX have shown recent moves reflecting elevated volatility over the period.
US inflation (CPI) holds at 2.4% year-on-year (February 2026), above the Fed’s 2% target. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% (February 5, 2026); next decision on March 19, 2026.
Equity indices — market climate
| Index | Last price | 30d change approx. | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAC 40 Euronext Paris | 7,790 | −5.8% | ▼ |
| Euro Stoxx 50 Eurozone | 5,555 | −8.3% | ▼ |
| S&P 500 NYSE / NASDAQ | 5,638 | −3.1% | ▼ |
| Nasdaq Composite US technology | 22,105 | −3.4% | ▼ |
| Dow Jones 30 industrial stocks | 46,558 | −2.7% | ▼ |
Indicative prices as of 03/14/2026. 30-day changes are approximate and directional. Data subject to revision.
Rates, FX, commodities
| Asset | Level | Recent move | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 10-year Benchmark sovereign rate | 4.16% | → stable on the month | ● |
| VIX S&P 500 implied volatility | 27 – 30 | ↑ stress increased | ▼ |
| Gold (spot) Safe haven | ~ $5,100 | ↑ protection demand | ▲ |
| Brent ICE | ~ $88 | ↑ volatility | ● |
| WTI NYMEX | ~ $84 | ↑ volatility | ● |
Indicative data as of 03/14/2026. Energy prices have seen exceptional volatility. Not a substitute for real-time market data.
Macroeconomic indicators — latest releases
United States
Eurozone
Reading framework — factual elements of the month
The indicators compiled in this bulletin allow several simultaneous dynamics to be observed, without enabling a single conclusion to be drawn about the direction of the business cycle.
On the labor side: BLS data show a slowdown in job creation and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule is approaching its historical threshold without having crossed it. The Richmond Fed’s SOS indicator, more frequent (weekly), remains far from its own threshold.
On financial conditions: the NFCI remains in negative territory, which historically corresponds to more accommodative conditions than the long-run average. Credit spreads and implied volatility have risen over the period, without reaching the levels seen in major stress episodes.
On inflation: US CPI remains above the 2% target. In the eurozone, HICP has fallen below target, but energy prices could alter that trajectory, as the ECB noted in its February 2026 minutes. The eurozone side of this dashboard is detailed in our ECB macro data hub.
Context elements to monitor
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Monetary policy Yield curve Liquidity and financial conditions Business cycle Inflation Financial markets Commodities Debt and systemic fragilityCycle and recession signals
US yield curve spread (10-year − 2-year) and Sahm Rule. Yield curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most recessions. The Sahm Rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics
Financial conditions — NFCI
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). An index of 105 variables covering money markets, debt, equities, and the banking system. Positive value = more restrictive conditions than the historical average. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED
Net liquidity — Fed balance sheet, TGA, Reverse Repo
Net liquidity is the Federal Reserve balance sheet (total assets) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo (RRP) operations. This measure approximates the liquidity actually available in the financial system. The three components are shown individually. Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).
Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury via FRED
Inflation and expectations
Inflation expectations extracted from the bond market: 10-year breakeven (T10YIE), 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR, the Fed’s preferred indicator for expectations anchoring), and 10-year real interest rate (DFII10). Data: FRED.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Employment — weekly initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. This is the highest-frequency macroeconomic indicator released in the United States and the first warning signal on the labor market, well before monthly employment data (NFP). Data: FRED (ICSA).
Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED
Policy rates and bond yields
Fed policy rate (Fed Funds), 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields, and 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US).
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED
Credit spread — high yield
The option-adjusted spread of the ICE BofA US High Yield index measures the risk premium investors require to hold high yield corporate debt over government bonds. Sharp spread widening has historically coincided with episodes of financial stress. Data: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2).
Source: ICE Data Indices via FRED
This bulletin is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, BLS, ECB, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed). Cycle and financial conditions indicators are presented with their definitions and documented historical thresholds, without predictive interpretation.
Disclaimer. The data, charts, and indicators presented on this page are provided for strictly informational and educational purposes. They come from public sources (FRED, BLS, ECB, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed) and are subject to delays, revisions, or errors. They do not constitute investment advice, a personalized recommendation, an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, or predictive analysis of any kind. eco3min.fr is not an authorized financial institution and does not provide investment advisory services within the meaning of applicable regulation (MiFID II directive, French monetary and financial code). Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the investor, who is invited to consult a licensed professional. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Last updated — 22 May 2026
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