U.S. Home Prices Split in Two: 11 of the 20 Case-Shiller Metros Fell Over the Past Year

In February 2026, 11 of the 20 largest U.S. metropolitan housing markets were cheaper than a year earlier — even as the national index still rose. The headline number on U.S. home prices remains positive: the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national index was up 0.75% over the year to February 2026, its slowest February-over-February pace since 2012. Underneath that near-flat national average, the 20 metros that make up the Case-Shiller composite have pulled apart: prices fell over the year in eleven of them, rose in eight, and were essentially flat in one (Miami), with a spread running from −2.2% in Denver to +5.0% in Chicago.

This page documents that divergence metro by metro, with the full dataset available for download. The narrow point established by the data is that the often-repeated framing of a single national housing trend — up or down — no longer describes what the price series actually show. As of early 2026, the direction of U.S. home prices depends almost entirely on which metro you look at.

A national average that hides a split

The dominant framing of the U.S. housing market treats it as a single series with a single direction. For most of the period since 2012, that framing held: national prices and the large-metro composite moved together, and almost every metro moved with them. The year to February 2026 is the point at which that description stops fitting the data. Eco3min places this question within the Eco3min framework on the mortgage credit cycle.

The national Case-Shiller index rose 0.75% over the year, and the 20-city composite rose 0.92%. Both figures are positive, and both are near the bottom of their post-2012 range. But the composite is an average of twenty metros that did not move together. Eleven of the twenty registered a year-over-year decline, eight registered an increase, and one — Miami — was essentially unchanged. The distribution runs continuously from Denver at −2.18% to Chicago at +5.03% — a spread of 7.2 percentage points across markets that, a few years earlier, were rising in near-lockstep.

The table below ranks all twenty metros by year-over-year change to February 2026, alongside their cumulative change since February 2021.

Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (NSA) via FRED, February 2026 vs February 2025 and vs February 2021. Eco3min calculation.

Where prices fell, and where they rose

Sorting the same figures by U.S. Census region shows that the divergence is regional, not random. The four Midwest metros in the composite — Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Minneapolis — all rose over the year. Both Northeast metros — New York and Boston — also rose. In the West, the pattern reverses: seven of the eight metros declined, with only San Diego (+0.59%) on the positive side, and the four steepest Western declines — Denver, Seattle, Phoenix and Las Vegas — clustered there. The South is split: Charlotte rose and Miami was flat, while Dallas, Tampa, Atlanta and Washington, D.C. declined.

The chart and the dataset describe this pattern; they do not assign a cause to it. For the full trajectory, see our real-estate pillar. Mortgage rates, which apply nationally, do not by themselves explain why prices rose in one metro and fell in another over the same twelve months. Local supply conditions, the size of the prior run-up, migration flows and regional income trends are among the factors that analysts cite, and the relative weight of each is contested. What the price series establish is the fact of the divergence and its geography, not its mechanism.

Reading the split: deceleration, not a reversal

A legitimate qualification is that a year-over-year decline of one or two percent is a deceleration from a high base, not a market reversal. Every one of the 20 metros remains well above its level of five years earlier — between +19.4% (San Francisco) and +59.8% (Miami) since February 2021. The size of that five-year gain does not predict the past-year move: the metro with the steepest current decline, Denver (−2.18%), recorded one of the smallest five-year gains (+23.3%), while Tampa, up +43.6% over five years, is also among the steepest decliners now. Across the twenty metros the relationship between the five-year gain and the past-year change is weak. A homeowner who bought before 2022 in any of these markets remains substantially ahead in nominal terms; the recent move trims the most recent year of gains rather than the cumulative gain. Also relevant: our study on the REIT drawdown.

Two further qualifications follow from the same data. First, these are nominal figures. Adjusted for consumer-price inflation running near 3.8% over the year, only the three fastest-rising metros — Chicago, New York and Cleveland — kept pace with inflation; the other seventeen lost ground in real terms, including several that show a small nominal gain. The nominal-versus-real distinction changes the count substantially and is documented in the methodology. Second, the figures are not seasonally adjusted and describe metro-wide indices, not individual neighborhoods or property types; a metro-level average can move in the opposite direction to a specific submarket within it.

The divergence also reads differently depending on which side of a transaction a household is on. For an owner in a declining metro, a year-over-year fall in the index is an erosion of paper equity. For a prospective buyer in the same metro, the same figure, combined with a 30-year fixed mortgage rate that stood at 6.48% in early June 2026, marks an easing of the price barrier relative to a year earlier. The dataset is the same; the reading depends on position.

Common misinterpretations

Reading the national +0.75% as evidence that “U.S. home prices are still rising.” The national figure is positive, but it is the average of eleven declining metros, eight rising, and one (Miami) essentially flat. The single national number conceals the very split that the metro-level data reveal. A reader interested in price direction in a specific market gains little from the national figure.

Reading a −2% year as a crash. The largest decline in the set, Denver at −2.18%, follows a +23% cumulative gain over five years. The year-over-year declines documented here are small relative to the prior run-up, and none of the twenty metros has retraced its five-year gain.

Treating nominal and real changes as interchangeable. With inflation near 3.8% over the year, a nominal increase below that figure is a decline in real terms. By that measure the number of metros losing value is much larger than the nominal count of eleven. The choice between nominal and real framing is consequential and is set out in the methodology.

Generalizing a metro index to a neighborhood. The Case-Shiller metro indices cover entire metropolitan statistical areas. Price behavior within a metro varies by price tier, property type and submarket, and a metro-level figure should not be read as the change for any specific home.

What the data will show next

Several features of the series are worth following as subsequent Case-Shiller releases arrive, stated as observations rather than forecasts. Whether the count of declining metros widens beyond eleven or narrows is the simplest summary statistic of the divergence. Whether the regional pattern persists — Midwest and Northeast rising, West and parts of the South declining — or rotates is a second. And whether a clearer relationship emerges between the size of a metro’s five-year gain and its past-year change — at present that relationship is weak — would indicate whether the current adjustment is tracking the earlier run-up or something else. None of these is a recommendation to act; each is a measurable feature of the published index.

Methodology and sources

Frequently Asked Questions

Are U.S. home prices falling in 2026?

It depends on the metro. As of February 2026, the national Case-Shiller index was up 0.75% year-over-year, but eleven of the twenty largest metros recorded year-over-year declines, eight recorded increases, and one (Miami) was essentially flat. There is no single national direction that applies to every market.

Which metros saw the largest declines?

Among the twenty Case-Shiller metros, the largest year-over-year declines to February 2026 were in Denver (−2.18%), Tampa (−2.07%), Seattle (−2.02%), Phoenix (−1.80%) and Dallas (−1.75%). Seven of the eight Western metros in the composite declined.

Which metros were still rising?

Chicago (+5.03%), New York (+4.75%) and Cleveland (+4.12%) posted the largest gains. All four Midwest metros and both Northeast metros in the composite rose over the year.

Does a price decline mean the market has crashed?

The declines documented here are year-over-year changes of roughly one to two percent, set against cumulative five-year gains of +19% to +60%. None of the twenty metros has given back its five-year gain. The data describe a deceleration from a high base.

Why use the not-seasonally-adjusted index?

Year-over-year comparison — the same month one year apart — already controls for seasonality, so the not-seasonally-adjusted series is the conventional choice for annual change. Seasonally adjusted variants exist and produce marginally different month-to-month figures.

Are these figures adjusted for inflation?

No. The chart and table are nominal. With consumer-price inflation near 3.8% over the year, a nominal gain below that rate is a decline in real terms; on that basis only the three fastest-rising metros kept pace with inflation. The methodology section sets out the distinction.

Conclusion

In the year to February 2026, the U.S. housing market stopped behaving as a single series. The national Case-Shiller index rose 0.75% — its slowest February pace since 2012 — but that near-flat average sits on top of a 7.2-point spread across the twenty largest metros, eleven of which were cheaper than a year earlier, eight more expensive, and one (Miami) essentially flat. The pattern is regional: the Midwest and Northeast rose, while the West and parts of the South declined.

The divergence is the finding. Its cause is not established by the price series, and the same numbers support more than one reading depending on whether a household holds property or hopes to buy it. What the data make difficult to sustain is the single-direction framing — that U.S. home prices, as a whole, are simply rising or simply falling. As of early 2026, the answer is local.