Macroeconomic Dashboard — February 2026

eco3min · macroeconomic dashboard

February 2026 · As of February 24, 2026

Macro reading — monthly synthesis

Dominant regime

Financial stabilization,
weak growth

Central risk

Misreading market resilience as a macro signal

Bias to avoid

Confusing technical disinflation with cyclical recovery

This dashboard delivers an independent monthly macro reading, stable and comparable across time. It aims to distinguish financial adjustments from structural inflections in the economic cycle.

Equity indices — market climate

Index	Last close	30-day chg. approx.	Signal
CAC 40 Euronext Paris	8,471	+5.2%	▲
Euro Stoxx 50 Euro area	6,060	+2.3%	▲
S&P 500 NYSE / NASDAQ	6,838	−1.0%	▼
Nasdaq Composite US technology	22,627	−3.5%	▼
Dow Jones 30 industrial stocks	48,804	−1.2%	▼

Closing prices, Feb 23. Approximate 30-day changes, directional purpose only. The CAC 40 hit an all-time high (8,533) on February 20 before correcting. US indices declined on combined fears of AI-driven disruption and trade tensions.

Rates, currencies, commodities

Asset	Level	Recent move	Signal
10Y US Treasury Benchmark sovereign yield	4.15%	↓ easing	▼
VIX S&P 500 implied volatility	21.0	↑ tension	●
EUR / USD Euro–dollar parity	1.18	Strong euro	▲
Gold (spot) Safe-haven asset	$5,050	↑ risk-off	▲
WTI Crude Crude oil (NYMEX)	$66.4	↑ geopolitics	●

Indicative data, Feb 21–23. Gold at historical levels, supported by central bank purchases (PBoC: 15th consecutive month) and Iran–US tensions. Oil rebounded on Middle East geopolitical risk despite a structurally oversupplied market.

Macroeconomic indicators — latest releases

United States

CPI (Jan 2026)2.4% y/y

Core CPI2.5%

Fed funds3.50–3.75%

Next Fed decisionExtended pause

Euro area

HICP (Jan 2026)1.7% y/y

Core inflation2.2%

ECB deposit rate2.00%

Next ECB decisionMarch 19, 2026

The currently underestimated macro signal

The financial easing observed over recent weeks has not yet been accompanied by a clear pickup in productive credit. February data confirm a persistent gap between financial conditions and real-economy dynamics. Euro-area inflation has moved below the ECB target (1.7% in January), but this disinflation is largely imported through a strong euro — it does not necessarily reflect a structural improvement in underlying price dynamics.

Structural events of the month

01US tariffs at 15%. After the Supreme Court invalidated the emergency tariffs, the Trump administration immediately raised global duties to 15% via Section 122. The European Parliament suspended ratification of its trade agreement with the United States.

02AI disruption fears. US equity markets saw heavy selling in software and financial services, tied to advances in AI coding models. IBM lost 13% in a single session. The software sector remains under continuous pressure.

03ECB: status quo for the 5th consecutive meeting. The deposit rate stays at 2.00%. Euro-area inflation (1.7%) has moved below target, but the ECB is not adjusting its stance, judging the current framework appropriate. Next projections update: March 19.

04Iran–US tensions. Stepped-up US military posture in the Middle East. Nuclear negotiations are ongoing but fragile. Oil prices are pricing in a rising geopolitical risk premium.

Eco3min proprietary indices — monthly dynamics

55 ↓

/ 100

Macro Momentum Index

Continued deceleration of global momentum on a monthly basis. Growth dynamics remain positive but slowing, with no clear contraction signal.

43 ↑

/ 100

Systemic Stress Index

Slightly more visible financial tensions (VIX above 20, rising bond volatility), without systemic rupture. The level remains moderate in historical perspective.

44 ↓

/ 100

Risk / Opportunity Asymmetry Index

Asymmetry remains unfavorable in the short term despite apparent market stability. The potential return / downside risk ratio does not lean in favor of greater risk-taking in the current environment.

Methodology and detailed explanations of the Eco3min indices →

Macroeconomic regime — monthly diagnosis

Moderate global growth. Gradual disinflation in the euro area, slower in the United States. Monetary conditions still restrictive on both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed holds rates at 3.50–3.75% pending the presidential transition (Jerome Powell’s term expiring in May 2026). The ECB remains on pause at 2.00%, watching the disinflationary effect of a strong euro. The macro regime stays constrained despite contained financial volatility — the divergence between European equity markets (CAC 40 all-time high) and US indices (S&P 500 negative YTD) reflects flow dynamics rather than a fundamental decoupling.

Macro roadmap — 3-month horizon

Central

Weak growth and gradual disinflation. Central banks maintain the status quo. The US labor market slows without sharp deterioration. Trade uncertainty stays high but manageable.

Favorable

Financial easing transmits to the real economy without an inflationary rebound. The Fed cuts rates in the second half. Productive credit picks up in the euro area.

Adverse

Trade escalation (tariffs above 15%) or geopolitical shock (Iran) triggers a confidence shock. Credit tensions return, VIX above 30, equity markets correct.

Legal disclosure. This dashboard is provided for informational and analytical purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a personalized recommendation within the meaning of French and European financial regulation. Market data are indicative, sourced from public providers (BLS, ECB, Eurostat, FRED, exchanges), and may differ from official closing levels. Eco3min proprietary indices rely on internal methodologies documented separately. Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the individual making it.