US-TERM-PREMIUM — Daily CSV Download (US Term Premium)
The term premium is the extra yield investors demand for holding long-term bonds instead of rolling short-term bonds. When positive, investors are being compensated for duration risk. When negative — as it was for much of 2016–2023 — long bonds pay less than expected future short rates, signaling either extreme safe-haven demand or central bank distortion. The Adrian-Crump-Moench (ACM) model from the NY Fed is the most widely cited estimate.
Dataset: US 10-Year Term Premium — ACM Model (1962–2026) · Updated 2026-04-30
Macro Takeaway
This indicator is a key component of the macro-financial monitoring framework. Its current level relative to its historical distribution — captured in the percentile and z-score above — provides immediate context for whether conditions are historically normal, stretched, or compressed.
Cross-referencing with the 10-year Treasury yield and the yield curve slope helps situate this indicator within the broader macro regime.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | US 10-Year Term Premium — ACM Model (1962–2026) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1962–2026 |
| Variables | date, term_premium_10y, term_premium_2y |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premium Model |
| Last updated | — |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation date |
term_premium_10y | Float | 10-year term premium estimate (%) |
term_premium_2y | Float | 2-year term premium estimate (%) |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-term-premium.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-term-premium.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df.describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/us-term-premium.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.
Methodology
Adrian, Crump & Moench (2013) affine term structure model. Estimated from Treasury yields across the maturity spectrum. Data downloaded from the NY Fed’s public research data page. US government data — public domain.
This dataset is updated automatically via the Eco3min data pipeline.
Historical Regimes
Historical regime analysis for this dataset will be added in a future update. The key stats block above provides immediate context for the current reading relative to the full historical distribution.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
- 10-Year Treasury Yield — The yield being decomposed
- Yield Curve 10Y–3M — Curve slope context
- 30-Year Treasury Yield — Long duration context
Related Research
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset Hub
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York — ACM Term Premium Model
Dataset Reference
Last updated — 9 May 2026
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