Since the beginning of December 2026, volatility has remained elevated across equity and bond markets, after a year marked by periods of calm followed by violent swings. Between shifts in rate expectations, persistent geopolitical tensions, and rapid sector rotations around…
The so-called “barbell” logic offers a polarized reading of risk allocation in an environment of persistently high rates, sustained volatility, and fragmented market performance. TL;DR Barbell logic frames a portfolio as two poles, resilience and optionality, with a deliberately thin…
The persistent inversion of the U.S. yield curve calls the consensus soft-landing scenario into question. A breakdown of the signals to watch and the allocation strategies to favor. TL;DR As 2026 opens, the U.S. 2s10s curve is still partially inverted…
Earnings surprises in equities are now emerging as one of the earliest signals for reading the equity cycle at the start of 2026. They are no longer just quarterly noise but have become a structural indicator of the equity regime…
Rising index concentration — where the top ten companies can account for more than a third of total market capitalization — now coexists with increasing dispersion beneath the surface. These two dynamics, amplified by passive investment flows, are structurally transforming…
The fragmentation of global trade, strategic control over resources, and the reconfiguration of value chains are creating an environment of structurally higher costs and redefined risk premia—a regime shift that asset allocation models built during globalization struggle to capture. TL;DR…
Rising index concentration—where the ten largest companies can account for more than one-third of total market capitalization—coexists with increasing performance dispersion beneath the surface. These two forces, amplified by passive investment flows, are structurally changing the nature of index investing.…
Five families of indicators—real rates, the yield curve, credit spreads, implied volatility, and net liquidity—concentrate most of the macroeconomic information that actually matters for financial markets. Their interpretation is grounded in identifiable mechanisms, not intuition. TL;DR Five indicator families carry…
Bitcoin’s major cycles — rallies and corrections — line up with striking regularity with phases of expansion and contraction in global liquidity, placing crypto assets within the macroeconomic logic of capital flows rather than in an autonomous financial ecosystem. A…
A change in the ECB’s or the Fed’s policy rate mechanically alters the value of each component of an individual’s wealth — regulated savings, life insurance, mortgage debt, equities, bonds — with delays and magnitudes specific to each item, and…
