Every copper supercycle peak has come with a story of durable structural demand. Yet the 2011 top was followed by a multi-year correction, a reminder that commodity cycles contain their own turning point. This precedent says nothing about the path…
Comparing copper with the other base metals clarifies what its price should really say. In 2025 the complex rose together, but copper nearly doubled the average gain: that dispersion isolates the non-cyclical part of its rise. A global industrial cycle…
Copper is an industrial input: its price enters production costs before it reaches the consumer. A rise, especially a supply-driven one, can therefore feed cost-push inflation without vigorous demand being at play. Understanding this channel clarifies a point often confused:…
Copper demand splits between cyclical uses, tied to the pace of activity, and a structural layer driven by electrification. That second component, indifferent to the cycle, blurs the metal’s read as a growth barometer. Separating the two drivers clarifies why…
The copper-gold ratio pits a growth metal against a safe haven, and for years it tracked the 10-year US Treasury yield. Since 2024 the two have split apart: the ratio has collapsed while yields have stayed high. Understanding why the…
Gold demand is no homogeneous aggregate: it brings together jewellery, investment in bars, coins and exchange-traded funds, central-bank purchases and technological use, components with opposite drivers that a single figure conceals. Decomposing this demand illuminates why the same high price…
China and India form the physical heart of the gold market, and local price gaps, a premium in Shanghai, a discount in Mumbai, signal the real intensity of demand, where the London price stays silent. 2026 shows that this Asian…
Gold supply barely responds to its price: mine production stays nearly flat even at peaks, and the stock already extracted dwarfs the annual flow. It is this inertia, captured by the stock-to-flow ratio, that sets gold apart from ordinary commodities.…
Announcing «gold at an all-time high» assumes a currency and a measure. The record differs depending on whether one counts in dollars, euros or yen, and on whether or not one adjusts for inflation. The nuance is not pedantic: it…
The US fiscal trajectory, debt at records and interest exceeding the defense budget, ranks among the structural drivers of gold demand: a liability-free asset, sought when a state’s debt looks less safe. The link is anything but mechanical, though: it…
