Next US CPI release: date, time (ET), latest print and the base effect (with PCE)

The US CPI comes out once a month at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number that moves markets is a 12-month change: it settles twelve months at once, not just the month being published.

This page keeps the date and time of the next release, the latest BLS print, the full schedule, the PCE, and what the month dropping out of the window implies for the next 12-month rate.

When the CPI comes out, and which two numbers it carries

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM Eastern Time sharp, on a weekday between the 10th and the 15th of the month following the reference month. Eastern Time is the native clock of the release; the countdown above keeps it, and the weeks when the US and European clock changes fall out of step only matter to readers converting from London or Paris. The period each US statistic actually covers never coincides with its release date: the CPI of a given month arrives two weeks into the next.

The release leads with two numbers, and they do not measure the same thing. The monthly change is seasonally adjusted: it is the figure the BLS quotes first. The 12-month change is computed on the unadjusted index. For August 2026, the BLS reported +0.4% on the month and 3.4% over twelve months for all items, +0.3% and 2.4% for all items less food and energy, the core index. That pair is what the panel above reproduces.

The 12-month rate does not measure the month: it settles twelve months at once.

The 2026 CPI release schedule

The BLS sets its dates a year ahead and moves them only for exceptional events; the October-November 2025 federal shutdown was one, and the October 2025 index was never published. The 2027 schedule had not appeared as of September 18, 2026. The table draws on the single source that also feeds the US macro calendar of Fed, CPI, jobs and GDP dates: the next row is highlighted, past rows greyed out.

What the next print is worth: the base effect

A 12-month change is, to a close approximation, the sum of twelve monthly changes. When the BLS publishes a new month, the same month of the previous year drops out of the window. If the incoming month is weaker than the outgoing one, the 12-month rate falls even on a positive monthly print; if it is stronger, the rate rises. This mechanism, the base effect, accounts for much of the movement in the annual rate that commentary attributes to the latest number alone.

The calculator below takes the monthly change you assume for the next release, applies it to the seasonally adjusted index of the latest published month, and derives the 12-month change that would follow, for the headline index and for core. It also shows the twelve monthly changes of the current window, with the one that drops out at the next release. The computation runs on seasonally adjusted series: the official 12-month rate, computed on the unadjusted index, can differ by a tenth of a point.

Over the twelve-month window ending in August 2026, the BLS published only 10 monthly changes for the headline index, with no October 2025 index; they average +0.31% a month, against +0.22% for core. March 2026, at +0.9% on gasoline, leaves the window with the April 2027 release: it is the heaviest month in this series.

How to read the print: headline, core, and what the Fed watches

The headline index includes food and energy; the core index excludes them, because their prices respond to supply shocks that monetary policy does not steer. The gap between the two says where current inflation comes from. In August 2026, headline ran at 3.4% over the year and core at 2.4%: a one-point gap, in a release where energy rose 16.3% over twelve months. The three episodes of sustained divergence between core and headline CPI since 1957 show that this gap almost always closes through headline, rarely through core.

The cycle peak remains June 2022: 9.1% over the year for the headline index, the highest since 1981. The return towards 3% took two years, and 2026 reopened the headline-core gap through gasoline, up 21.2% in March 2026 alone according to the BLS. Which of the two measures to follow has no single answer: core for the trend, headline for household purchasing power, whose basket does contain gasoline. The complete CPI history since 1913 places both in a longer perspective.

The Fed does not state its objective on the CPI. The 2% target the Fed has set itself refers to the PCE price index, and its quarterly projections distinguish headline PCE from core PCE. The CPI remains the first number available, three to four weeks ahead: that is why it moves markets, and why the PCE, when it comes, rarely surprises. A less discussed signal separates the two indexes: the weight of shelter, about a third of the CPI against less than a fifth of the PCE, which makes the CPI slower to reflect a turn in rents in either direction.

The mechanisms are laid out in the complete guide to inflation mechanisms, measurement and effects, and the method of the index itself, basket, weights and limits, in how the BLS actually calculates the CPI.

The PCE: the Fed’s gauge, published later

The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the PCE price index in the Personal Income and Outlays report, also at 8:30 AM ET. Since autumn 2026 that report is no longer tied to the GDP release: the BEA set the August report for October 6, 2026, September for November 4, 2026 and October for December 2, 2026, with the November report still to be announced as of September 18, 2026. The countdown follows those dates.

Over the long run the PCE rises more slowly than the CPI: sixty-five years of comparison between the two measures give an average gap of a few tenths of a point a year in favour of the CPI, by construction of the weights. The reasons PCE inflation differs from CPI inflation come down to three choices of method: the index formula, the scope of spending, and the treatment of health care paid by insurers and government. The underlying series are downloadable as the monthly PCE price index dataset since 1959.

Frequently asked questions

Last updated — 19 September 2026