Is the US in a recession? Macroeconomic Barometer, September 2026

Data as of September 1, 2026 · Updated September 25, 2026

Short answer, as of September 25, 2026

None of the three US recession gauges tracked here has reached its threshold. Inflation, however, holds above 3% on both sides of the Atlantic, and both the Fed and the ECB raised rates in September.

  • Recession signals: the real-time Sahm rule reads −0.07 for August (trigger 0.50), the Richmond Fed SOS indicator −0.004 for the week ending September 12 (trigger 0.20), and the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread remains positive at +0.31 pp on September 24. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August (BLS).
  • Inflation: US CPI up 3.4% year over year in August, core CPI 2.4% (BLS, September 11). Euro area HICP at 3.2%, with energy up 14.3% (Eurostat, September 17).
  • Central banks: the Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, by a 12–0 vote. The ECB raised its deposit facility rate to 2.50% on September 10, effective September 16.
  • Financial conditions: the Chicago Fed NFCI stands at −0.555 for the week ending September 18, looser than its historical average, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.11% on September 23 and Brent traded at $114.89 on September 22.
IndicatorLatest readingSeptember 1 editionBenchmark
Sahm rule, real timeFRED SAHMREALTIME−0.07August 2026−0.03 (July)Trigger 0.50
below trigger
SOS indicatorRichmond Fed−0.004week to 09/120.0 (week to 08/15)Trigger 0.20
below trigger
10Y − 2Y Treasury spreadFRED T10Y2Y+0.31 pp09/24/2026+0.41 pp (08/31)Inverted below 0
not inverted
Financial conditions, NFCIChicago Fed−0.555week to 09/18−0.566 (week to 08/21, since revised to −0.551)Historical average = 0
looser than average
Nonfarm payrollsBLS+162,000August 2026−23,000 (July, first estimate)July revised to +21,000
US CPI, year over yearBLS3.4%August, core 2.4%3.4% (July, core 2.5%)Fed goal 2% (on PCE)
above 2%
Euro area HICP, year over yearEurostat3.2%August, final3.3% (August, flash)ECB target 2%
above 2%
Fed funds target rangeFederal Reserve Board3.75–4.00%since 09/16/20263.50–3.75%+25 bp on September 16
ECB deposit facility rateECB2.50%since 09/16/20262.25%+25 bp, decided September 10
US Treasury 10-yearFRED DGS105.11%09/23/20264.75% (08/31)+0.36 pp
High-yield spreadFRED BAMLH0A0HYM22.73%09/23/20262.63% (08/31)+0.10 pp
Brent, dated spotEIA via FRED$114.8909/22/2026$88.24 (08/25)September high $130.80 (09/15)
VIXCBOE via FRED14.2109/22/202614.92 (08/31)−0.71

By Eco3min Research. Latest readings retrieved at the source on September 25, 2026. The cycle signals below are updated to the same date; the monthly detail further down (August highlights, month-end markets, macro data, framework) remains dated September 1. What changed since September 1 · Method, sources and revisions

MACRO REGIMEData as of September 2026
Transition / Mixed signals
→ Growth : on trend→ Inflation : stableFinancial conditions : accommodating
Global context : synchronized · commodity supply/demand shock
Neutral cyclical state — no clear cyclical meta-regime See in the Atlas →
See the full classification →

Since September 1, 2026: the releases of the month

US jobs, September 4. Nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August. July, first reported at −23,000, was revised to +21,000, and June from +20,000 to +31,000, a combined upward revision of 55,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and the real-time Sahm rule moved to −0.07 for August. Source: BLS, Employment Situation, September 4, 2026; FRED, series SAHMREALTIME.

ECB, September 10. The Governing Council raised the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points: deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing operations 2.65%, marginal lending facility 2.90%, effective September 16. The press release states that “the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures”. The staff baseline puts headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, and growth at 0.9%, 1.4% and 1.5%. Source: ECB, monetary policy decisions, September 10, 2026.

US CPI, September 11. The CPI rose 0.4% in August, seasonally adjusted, and 3.4% over twelve months, the same pace as in July. Core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% over the year, against 2.5% in July. The energy index rose 2.1% on the month and 16.3% over the year. Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index, September 11, 2026.

FOMC, September 16. The Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00%, by a 12–0 vote. The statement says that “economic activity is expanding at a solid pace” and that “inflation remains elevated”, and that the decision “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal”. Source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026.

Euro area inflation, September 17. Eurostat put August HICP inflation at 3.2%, a tenth below the 3.3% flash estimate and up from 2.9% in July. Energy rose 14.3% and contributed 1.29 percentage points; inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco stood at 2.4%. Source: Eurostat, euro indicators, September 17, 2026.

Markets. Between August 31 and September 23, the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.75% to 5.11% and the 2-year from 4.34% to 4.85%; the 10-year minus 2-year spread narrowed to +0.31 pp on September 24. Dated Brent went from $89.75 on August 28 to a high of $130.80 on September 15, then $114.89 on September 22. The high-yield spread widened from 2.63% to 2.73%. Source: FRED (DGS10, DGS2, T10Y2Y, DCOILBRENTEU, BAMLH0A0HYM2), EIA.

Next releases: August PCE and the third estimate of Q2 GDP (BEA), September 30 · September jobs report (BLS), October 2 · September CPI (BLS), October 14 · final September HICP (Eurostat), October 16 · FOMC, October 27–28 · ECB, October 28–29. The October edition, with data as of October 1, replaces this page at the start of the month.

Cycle signals: institutional indicators, updated September 25, 2026

−0.56

avg. = 0

NFCI: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

A composite of 105 variables (money markets, debt, equities, the banking system). A negative reading indicates financial conditions looser than the historical average since 1971. The index stands at −0.555 for the week ending September 18 and has held between −0.557 and −0.551 since the week ending August 21, on the current vintage (weekly readings are revised). The three sub-indices for the week ending September 18: risk −0.625, credit −0.070, leverage +0.059, the leverage component having eased from +0.095 in the week ending August 21. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED (series NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE, week ending September 18, 2026).

−0.07

threshold = 0.50

Sahm rule: real-time recession indicator

Developed by Claudia Sahm (formerly at the Fed). It measures the gap between the 3-month moving average of the US unemployment rate and its low over the prior 12 months. The 0.50 threshold has historically coincided with the start of every recession since 1950. The real-time reading for August 2026 is −0.07, after −0.03 in July and 0.07 in June: the unemployment rate held at 4.1% in August, and its three-month average remains at its own twelve-month low. A negative reading leaves the bar empty by construction. Next release: October 2, 2026. Source: FRED, series SAHMREALTIME.

−0.004

threshold = 0.20

SOS: Scavette-O’Trakoun Sahm-style indicator (Richmond Fed)

A weekly variant of the Sahm rule using the insured unemployment rate. Developed by O’Trakoun (Richmond Fed) and Scavette (Philadelphia Fed), published in Economics Letters 2025. The underlying series is published in our Sahm-rule recession-indicator dataset. Recession threshold: 0.20. The indicator stands at −0.004 for the week ending September 12, below the threshold; continuing claims stood at 1.719 million for the same week, against 1.717 million a week earlier. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, SOS page last updated September 24, 2026; FRED, series CCSA.

These indicators are designed to detect recession and financial stress. They are not trading signals. The thresholds mentioned are historical benchmarks, not predictions. Values are subject to revision.

Monthly detail · August highlights, month-end markets and data as of September 1, 2026

Yield curve spread and the Sahm rule

US yield curve spread (10Y − 2Y) and the Sahm rule. A curve inversion (negative value) has historically preceded most US recessions. The curve is not inverted but flattened over the month: the slope stands at +0.41 pp as of August 31, against +0.47 pp on July 31. The Sahm rule triggers at the 0.50 threshold. Data: FRED (T10Y2Y, SAHMCURRENT).

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Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Bureau of Labor Statistics

Financial conditions: NFCI

The Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index and its three sub-indices (risk, credit, leverage). A composite of 105 variables spanning money markets, debt, equities and the banking system. A positive value = historically tighter conditions. As of August 21, 2026: NFCI −0.566, risk −0.634, credit −0.086, leverage +0.118. Data: FRED (NFCI, NFCIRISK, NFCICREDIT, NFCILEVERAGE).

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Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED

Factual highlights: August 2026

Fed, no meeting, but minutes and Jackson Hole. The FOMC did not meet in August; the fed funds target range is unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. The minutes of the July 28-29 meeting were released on August 19. On August 28, Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered the keynote at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, on the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”. In those remarks he put the 12-month change in the PCE price index at 3.7% and the six-month change at 4.1%; reported that 54% of the 199 components of the PCE basket showed 12-month price increases above 3%, against about 77% at the post-pandemic peak and 32% in the two decades before the pandemic; described a jobless rate of 4.1% as consistent with full employment; and said he would be “hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive”. He also characterised the July minutes as recording a unanimous Committee view of stable labour markets and solid output alongside inflation still too high. Source: Federal Reserve Board, “In Our Time”, August 28, 2026; FOMC minutes, July 28-29 meeting, released August 19, 2026.

ECB, no monetary policy meeting in August. The Governing Council held no monetary policy meeting during the month. The three key rates are unchanged since 17 June 2026: deposit facility 2.25%, main refinancing operations 2.40%, marginal lending facility 2.65%. The last decision, on July 23, was a hold. The next monetary policy meeting runs September 9-10 and is hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, with the press conference on September 10. The August HICP flash estimate, published on September 1, therefore reached the Council before that meeting rather than after it. Source: ECB, key ECB interest rates; ECB, Governing Council meeting calendar.

Inflation: the United States eases, the euro area re-accelerates. US CPI for July (released August 12) rose 0.1% on the month in seasonally adjusted terms, after falling 0.4% in June. Over twelve months the all-items index came in at 3.4% (from 3.5%). The index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% on the month and is up 2.5% over the year (from 2.6%). Energy fell 1.5% on the month while remaining 14.7% above its year-ago level; gasoline fell 2.9% on the month and is up 24.6% over the year. Shelter rose 0.1% on the month, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly all-items increase, and stands at 3.2% over the year. On the PCE side (BEA, August 28), personal income rose 0.4% in July, spending 0.2%, and the saving rate came in at 3.0%; the PCE price index stands at 3.7% year-over-year with the core measure at 3.3%. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE is at 2.28% over twelve months. In the euro area, Eurostat’s September 1 flash estimate lifts August HICP to 3.3% (from 2.9% in July), with energy at 14.3% (from 10.3%), services at 3.0% (from 3.3%) and the measure excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.4% (from 2.5%). By country: France 2.7%, Germany 2.9%, Italy 3.2%, Spain 4.5%. Source: BLS, Consumer Price Index – July 2026; BEA, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Eurostat, flash estimate, September 1, 2026.

Growth: the second quarter confirmed on both sides. The BEA’s second estimate (August 26) leaves US Q2 2026 GDP at +1.5% at an annual rate, unchanged from the advance estimate of July 30 and against +2.1% in Q1. Positive contributions came from consumer spending, exports and investment, partly offset by a decrease in government spending; imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The third estimate is due September 30. In the euro area, Eurostat’s August 14 flash estimate confirms +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (+0.5% in the EU) and +1.0% year-over-year, after a flat first quarter; employment rose 0.1% on the quarter and 0.5% over the year. The same release puts US Q2 GDP at +0.4% quarter-over-quarter on the European convention. Euro area unemployment was stable at 6.4% in July (Eurostat, September 1), against 6.3% a year earlier. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Second Estimate), Q2 2026; Eurostat, GDP and employment flash estimates, August 14, 2026; Eurostat, unemployment, September 1, 2026.

Employment: the first payroll contraction of the cycle. The July jobs report (released August 7) shows nonfarm payrolls down 23,000, against an average monthly gain of 34,000 over the prior twelve months. Revisions were again negative and larger than the month itself: May was cut from +129,000 to +63,000 and June from +57,000 to +20,000, leaving the two months combined 103,000 lower than previously reported. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 point to 4.1% and the participation rate lost a further 0.1 point to 61.4%, seven-tenths below its January level; the employment-population ratio stands at 58.9%. The number of people on temporary layoff rose 153,000 to 921,000. By sector: local government education −50,000, retail trade −19,000, health care +18,000. Average hourly earnings edged up 2 cents to $37.62, up 3.2% year-over-year, and the average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours. Weekly initial claims stood at 203,000 for the week ending August 22, after 207,000 and 212,000 in the two prior weeks. Source: BLS, The Employment Situation – July 2026; U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED.

Commodities: gold’s month, and an oil plateau. The LBMA Gold Price PM rose from $4,026.60 on July 31 to $4,562.75 on August 28, a gain of 13.3% over the month, with an intra-month high of $4,663.70 on August 24. There was no auction on August 31: London was closed for the Summer bank holiday. The September 1 fixing came in at $4,353.15, 4.6% below the August close. On oil, dated Brent (EIA spot) opened the month at $88.90 on August 3, traded between $86.47 and $96.92, and stood at $88.24 on August 25 — the last observation published at the time of writing, the EIA series not having been updated beyond that date. Dated WTI stood at $83.90 on the same day. Across the seventeen published August sessions the Brent average is $91.40, against a July monthly average of $83.76. Source: London Bullion Market Association; U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED (DCOILBRENTEU, DCOILWTICO, MCOILBRENTEU).

Employment: weekly initial jobless claims

Initial jobless claims (ICSA) are released every Thursday by the Department of Labor. The highest-frequency US macro indicator and the earliest warning signal for the labor market, ahead of the monthly jobs report (NFP). For the week ending August 22, 2026, ICSA = 203,000, after 207,000 and 212,000 in the two prior weeks and 198,000 at the end of July. Data: FRED (ICSA).

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Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED

Equity indices: month-end closes

IndexLevelClosing dateMonthly trend
CAC 40
Euronext Paris
8,334.5008/31/2026↓
Euro Stoxx 50
Euro area
n/a08/31/2026–
DAX
Deutsche Börse
n/a08/31/2026–
FTSE 100
London Stock Exchange
10,824.2608/28/2026↓
S&P 500
NYSE / NASDAQ
7,686.1408/31/2026↑
Nasdaq Composite
US technology
26,370.8908/31/2026↑
Dow Jones
30 industrials
53,185.9008/31/2026↑

Closing levels for the last trading day of August. Note the calendar: August 31 was the Summer bank holiday in the United Kingdom and the London Stock Exchange was closed, so the FTSE 100 level is that of Friday August 28; Paris, Frankfurt and New York traded normally on August 31. The Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX month-end closes could not be confirmed against a dated reference source at the time of publication and are therefore not reported. On the month: the Nasdaq Composite gained 3.9%, the S&P 500 2.6% and the Dow 1.3%, while the CAC 40 lost 2.1%. Arrows reflect the trend observed over the month and have no predictive value.

Rates, commodities, volatility

AssetLevelDateSource
US Treasury 2-year
Sensitive to Fed expectations
4.34%08/31/2026FRED (DGS2) · H.15
US Treasury 10-year
Benchmark sovereign yield
4.75%08/31/2026FRED (DGS10) · H.15
US Treasury 30-year
Long-end benchmark
5.25%08/31/2026FRED (DGS30) · H.15
Spread 10Y − 2Y
Curve slope
+0.41 pp08/31/2026FRED (T10Y2Y)
30-year mortgage rate
Freddie Mac
6.66%08/27/2026FRED (MORTGAGE30US)
HY OAS spread
ICE BofA US High Yield
2.63%08/31/2026FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
VIX
S&P 500 implied volatility
14.9208/31/2026CBOE via FRED (VIXCLS)
Gold (LBMA PM auction)
USD/oz
$4,562.7508/28/2026London Bullion Market Association
Brent (dated spot)
Europe Brent FOB
$88.2408/25/2026EIA via FRED (DCOILBRENTEU)
WTI (dated spot)
Cushing, OK
$83.9008/25/2026EIA via FRED (DCOILWTICO)

Three lines are not dated August 31, and the reason differs in each case: the 30-year mortgage rate is a weekly series published on Thursdays; the gold auction did not take place on August 31 because London was closed for the Summer bank holiday; and the EIA oil series had not been updated beyond August 25 at the time of publication. The US yield curve flattened over the month (the 2-year rose 6 bps while the 10-year was unchanged and the 30-year eased 2 bps) leaving the 10Y−2Y slope at +0.41 pp against +0.47 pp at the end of July. The high-yield spread tightened 22 bps and the VIX fell a point. Indicative values, subject to revision; month-end market levels.

Policy rates and bond yields

The Fed policy rate (Fed Funds), 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, and the 30-year mortgage rate. The transmission chain between monetary policy and the real economy. As of August 31, 2026: effective fed funds 3.63% (target range 3.50–3.75%), 2-year 4.34%, 10-year 4.75%, 30-year mortgage 6.66% (week ending August 27). Data: FRED (FEDFUNDS, DGS2, DGS10, MORTGAGE30US).

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED

Credit spread: High Yield

The option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the ICE BofA US High Yield index measures the risk premium investors require to hold high-yield corporate debt over government bonds. As of August 31, 2026, the OAS comes in at 2.63% (263 bps), against 2.85% at the end of July: a tightening of 22 bps that takes the spread back towards the low end of its historical range, well below the long-run average (~5.5%). Data: FRED (BAMLH0A0HYM2).

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Source: ICE Data Indices via FRED

Macroeconomic indicators: latest releases

United States

Q2 2026 GDP (2nd estimate)+1.5% SAAR
Q1 2026 GDP (3rd estimate)+2.1%
CPI July (YoY)3.4%
Core CPI July2.5%
PCE July (YoY)3.7%
Core PCE July (YoY)3.3%
Trimmed Mean PCE July2.28% near target
Fed funds (target)3.50–3.75%
NFP July−23,000
NFP June (revised)+20,000
Unemployment rate July4.1%
Participation rate July61.4%
NFCI (08/21)−0.566
Sahm rule July−0.03 thr. 0.50

Euro area

Q2 2026 GDP (flash)+0.4% QoQ
Q2 2026 GDP (YoY)+1.0%
HICP August (flash, YoY)3.3%
Core HICP August2.4%
Energy August (YoY)+14.3%
Services August (YoY)3.0%
ECB deposit rate2.25%
ECB refi rate2.40%
Marginal lending facility2.65%
France inflation August (HICP, flash)2.7%
Euro area unemployment July6.4%
Next ECB decision09/10/2026

Inflation and expectations

Market-implied inflation expectations: 10-year breakeven (T10YIE) at 2.31% (the gap between nominal and inflation-indexed 10-year yields), 10-year real interest rate (DFII10) at 2.44%, and the 5Y5Y forward rate (T5YIFR) at 2.31%, all as of August 31, 2026. The 5Y5Y forward is the Fed’s preferred gauge of long-term expectations anchoring; it moved a single basis point over the month while the 10-year real rate eased 3 bps, leaving both close to where they stood before the summer’s energy moves. Data: FRED.

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Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System via FRED

Analytical framework: the month’s factual elements

The data available as of September 1 describe a configuration in which the labour market has stopped adding jobs while financial conditions keep easing. Unlike the previous month, the price data and the market data now cover the same period: August is documented on both sides, and the tension no longer comes from a lag between the two but from their content.

On activity: the BEA’s second estimate leaves US Q2 2026 GDP at +1.5% at an annual rate, unchanged from the advance reading and against +2.1% in Q1. The deceleration reflects a decrease in government spending, partly offset by consumer spending, exports and investment. In the euro area, Eurostat’s August 14 flash estimate confirms +0.4% quarter-over-quarter after a flat first quarter, and +1.0% year-over-year. Both remain estimates subject to revision: the US third estimate is due September 30. In his Jackson Hole remarks, the Fed Chairman noted that private domestic final purchases (a measure that, in his words, typically carries more signal than GDP) have risen at a pace of nearly 3% so far this calendar year.

On employment: the July report is the first negative print of the cycle (−23,000), and the revisions removed 103,000 jobs from May and June combined, more than four times the monthly figure itself. The unemployment rate nonetheless fell to 4.1%, alongside a further 0.1-point decline in the participation rate, to 61.4%. That combination is what drives the recession indicators lower rather than higher: the real-time Sahm rule turns negative at −0.03, mechanically, because the three-month average of the unemployment rate now sits at its own twelve-month low. The SOS indicator is at 0.0 (threshold 0.20) and weekly claims at 203,000. Read together, the payroll series and the household series describe a labour market where hiring has stopped rather than one where layoffs have started — temporary layoffs did rise 153,000, to 921,000.

On inflation: the July US CPI eases to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, but the Fed’s own preferred measure sits higher (the PCE price index at 3.7%, core at 3.3%) and the gap between the two indices is itself part of the picture. The Chairman put the six-month change in the PCE price index at 4.1% and reported that 54% of the 199 components of the PCE basket showed twelve-month increases above 3%, against 32% in the two decades preceding the pandemic. The underlying gauge favoured by the Eco3min classifier, the Trimmed Mean PCE, stands at 2.28%, and the 5Y5Y forward at 2.31%: long-term market-implied expectations have not moved. In the euro area the direction is the opposite, HICP rising to 3.3% with energy at 14.3%, the July oil move passing through faster there than in the US indices.

On central banks and markets: neither institution met in August, and financial conditions eased in the interval. The Fed’s July minutes, released on August 19, record a unanimous reading of stable labour markets and solid output alongside inflation still too high. At Jackson Hole on August 28 the Chairman said he would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive, citing credit spreads near the low ends of their historical ranges and bank lending standards on the easier end. The market data are consistent with that description: the NFCI eased for a fourth consecutive week to −0.566, the HY OAS tightened 22 bps to 2.63%, the VIX ended August at 14.92 and the curve flattened to +0.41 pp. Net liquidity fell about $45B over the month, to roughly $5,779B, as the Treasury General Account rebuilt from $911B to $951B.

Key items to watch: September–October 2026 calendar

The September releases listed below have since been published: their results are in the Since September 1 section above.

01 August NFP: September 4, 2026. The first release after July’s −23,000 print and the 103,000 removed from May and June. It also carries the revision to July itself, which on the pattern of the last three months is where much of the information has sat. The real-time Sahm rule (FRED series SAHMREALTIME) updates the same day; it stands at −0.03 for July against a 0.50 trigger.
02 US CPI August: September 11, 2026. August dated Brent averaged around $91 on the published sessions, against $83.76 for July: the energy component, which subtracted 1.5% on the month in July while running 14.7% above its year-ago level, is where that shows up first. Core CPI (2.5% year-over-year in July) and shelter (+3.2% over the year, two-thirds of July’s monthly increase) give the measure of the persistent component.
03 ECB: September 9-10, 2026. The Governing Council meets for the first time since July 23, hosted by the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, with the press conference on September 10. It is the first monetary policy meeting to follow the August HICP flash, which lifted euro area inflation to 3.3% with an energy component at 14.3%. The three key rates have been unchanged since 17 June 2026.
04 FOMC: September 15-16, 2026. The first meeting since July 28-29 and the first accompanied by a Summary of Economic Projections since June. The July meeting produced three dissents in favour of a hike; the intervening data show one negative payroll print, headline CPI down to 3.4% and a PCE price index at 3.7%.
05 BEA: September 30, 2026. Three releases the same morning: the third estimate of Q2 GDP (currently +1.5% SAAR), Personal Income and Outlays for August, and with it the PCE price index that the Fed treats as its target measure, 3.7% headline and 3.3% core in July. The Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE, at 2.28%, updates the same day.
06 Oil series catch-up, and Eurostat on October 2. Two publications close gaps left open on this page: the EIA daily series stopped at August 25 and the monthly Brent series (MCOILBRENTEU) had not published August, which is what leaves the classifier’s divergence flag pending. Eurostat’s September HICP flash follows on October 2, and will show whether the euro area energy component extends the move from 10.3% to 14.3% recorded in August.

Net liquidity: Fed balance sheet, TGA, reverse repo

Net liquidity equals total Federal Reserve assets (WALCL) minus the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance and reverse repo operations (RRP). As of August 26, 2026, total assets come in at $6,731B, the TGA at $951B and the RRP near zero ($0.7B), for net liquidity of about $5,779B — down roughly $45B from July 29. The balance sheet contracted by about $7B over the month while the Treasury rebuilt its account from $911B to $951B. The RRP printed a month-end spike to $6.7B on August 31 before falling back to $0.7B on September 1. Data: FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD).

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Sources: Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury via FRED

Method, sources and revisions

Prepared by Eco3min Research, the editorial desk of eco3min.fr. Every value on this page is retrieved from the institution that publishes it (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED, BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve Board, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA, LBMA) during the production of each edition, and is shown with its series code and its date. No figure is estimated or carried over from memory: a release not yet published is labelled as such.

Schedule: a full edition with data as of the first day of each month; the dashboard and the “Since” section are updated after the main releases of the month (jobs report, CPI, central bank decisions). The macro regime card follows the published classification methodology. Previous editions are archived unchanged, with links at the bottom of this page.

  • September 25, 2026: dashboard and “Since September 1” section added (US jobs, ECB, US CPI, FOMC, final euro area HICP, markets); cycle signals updated to September 25; the September 1 synthesis removed, its content being carried by the short answer and the August highlights.
  • September 2, 2026: September edition published, data as of September 1, 2026.

This barometer is published monthly by eco3min.fr. It compiles data from public institutional sources (FRED, BLS, BEA, Fed, ECB, Eurostat, Insee, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, EIA). The cycle and financial-conditions indicators are presented with their documented definitions and historical thresholds, with no predictive interpretation.

Disclaimer. The data, charts and indicators presented on this page are provided for strictly informational and educational purposes. They are drawn from public data (FRED, BLS, BEA, ECB, Eurostat, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed) and may be subject to delays, revisions or errors. They do not constitute investment advice, personalised recommendations, a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a predictive analysis of the economic cycle. eco3min.fr is not an authorised financial institution and does not provide investment advisory services within the meaning of applicable regulations (MiFID II; Articles L.541-1 et seq. of the French Monetary and Financial Code). Any investment decision is the sole responsibility of the investor, who is encouraged to consult an authorised professional. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The market values cited are indicative and may differ from real-time prices.

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May 2026 Archive

June 2026 Archive

July 2026 Archive

August 2026 Archive

Last updated — 25 September 2026