This tag gathers the analysis of leading signals of economic activity: PMIs, confidence surveys, economic surprises, financial conditions, composite indicators. These data help anticipate cyclical inflections before they appear in official statistics. It covers the reading and interpretation of these signals.
The statistical construction of macroeconomic indicators gives them a structural lag that limits their ability to reveal the cycle in real time. TL;DR A GDP figure describes an economy that closed 30 to 90 days earlier, a structural lag built…
Five families of indicators—real rates, the yield curve, credit spreads, implied volatility, and net liquidity—concentrate most of the macroeconomic information that actually matters for financial markets. Their interpretation is grounded in identifiable mechanisms, not intuition. TL;DR Five indicator families carry…
Stocks rise as the economy slows; they fall on strong data. The 'disconnect' is not a malfunction — it is the mechanical consequence of comparing a leading indicator (prices) with lagging ones (GDP, employment). Credit, liquidity, and expectations move first.
