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Leading Indicators

A leading indicator is only as good as its record of false alarms. Confidence surveys, jobless claims, the gold-copper ratio, the VIX or financial conditions: each signal has a recall rate, a precision and a lead time that rarely get mentioned when it flashes. They are measured here over long samples, from the Chicago Fed NFCI since 1971 to weekly jobless claims since 1967, a recession signal with 100% recall but 24% precision.

20pieces
5in-depth analyses
8datasets
1quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Why Financial Markets and the Real Economy Are Out of Sync Markets anticipate while the real economy lags. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism Why Financial Signals and the Real Economy Diverge Persistently Why financial markets and the real economy can diverge persistently, viewed through balance-sheet inertia, stock constraints and asynchronous cycle phases. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence Gold-Copper Ratio: 620 Months Ranked Since 1975, and Why the Historical Average Is Not One Number One ounce of gold bought 855 pounds of copper in February 2026, the most since 1975. StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset -0.46Latest value · October 2026 NFCI: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index Weekly Since 1971 See the data → Dataset $6,745,635MLatest value · October 2026 WALCL: Federal Reserve Total Assets Weekly Balance Sheet Data Since 2002 (FRED) See the data → In-depth analysisThe Copper-Gold Ratio as a Macro Signal: Still a Reliable Gauge of Treasury Yields in 2024-2026? In-depth analysisWTI: Reading Crude Oil Price as a Macro Signal of Economic Cycles

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

Systemic Risk Indicators and Financial Market Stress Signals3

The sub-pillar →

Other angles9

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonLEI vs PMI: comparing leading indicators

Related topics

The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

Financial Instability24 pieces Financial stress is measurable: it often shows up in volatility and credit spreads before it reaches the headlines. 3 in common → Metals & Critical Minerals46 pieces Gold answers to real rates, copper to industrial activity, uranium to power demand: each metal runs on its own driver. 3 in common → Global Liquidity34 pieces The Fed’s balance sheet is not market liquidity, even though the two are often treated as one. 2 in common → Economic Cycles64 pieces A slowdown is not a recession, and quarterly headlines rarely reveal which phase the economy is in. 1 in common → Energy & Oil49 pieces Oil only becomes a recession story once its cost claims a large enough share of the economy. 1 in common →
This topic also exists in French.Indicateurs avancés, 13 pieces →