Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI): Monthly US Activity Data and CFNAI-MA3 Since 1967
Definition
CFNAI
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monthly summary of US economic activity built from 85 indicators across production, employment, consumption and sales.
How it's measured: Direct series (FRED: CFNAI); zero is trend growth, negative below-trend, positive above-trend.
Why it matters: A three-month average below roughly −0.70 has historically marked recessions; it compresses a broad activity picture into one standardized number.
Primary source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED.
Go deeper: Macro & geopolitics pillar · Macro Regime Classification: Methodology and Data · The 2022 UK gilt crisis: an inflationary regime, a regional fracture
This dataset covers CFNAI monthly from March 1967, together with its three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3): the smoother series Eco3min uses as the real-activity input of its macro regime classification.
Dataset: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (1967–present) · Updated 2026-09-01
Data provided as is, with no warranty of accuracy or timeliness. Check any figure against the primary source cited on this page before using it. Terms: legal notice.
Source: FRED · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Macro Takeaway
The CFNAI is one of the broadest single-number summaries of US real activity, which is why month-to-month noise matters less than the three-month moving average. The CFNAI-MA3 is the version that carries signal: the Chicago Fed associates readings below −0.70 with a significant likelihood that a recession has begun, and a return to +0.20 with a recession having likely ended. Eco3min uses the CFNAI-MA3 as the growth axis of its macro regime classification, pairing it with the Trimmed Mean PCE inflation axis to place the economy on a growth×inflation grid. Because it aggregates production, labour, consumption, and sales data, the index tends to move ahead of GDP, which is published quarterly and with a lag.
The COVID shock illustrated the index’s range: the monthly CFNAI collapsed to a record low near −18 in April 2020 as activity froze, then rebounded to record-high positive readings as the economy reopened, before the CFNAI-MA3 settled back toward trend through 2021–2022. By early 2026 the CFNAI-MA3 had returned to a near-trend reading (−0.03 in March 2026), consistent with growth running close to its historical average rather than signalling contraction.
Dataset Overview
| Indicator | Chicago Fed National Activity Index (1967–present) |
|---|---|
| Geography | United States |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Period | 1967–present |
| Variables | date, cfnai, cfnai_ma3 |
| Format | CSV, Excel (XLSX) |
| Sources | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (via FRED series CFNAI) |
| Last updated | 2026-09-01 |
Dataset Variables
The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.
| Column | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
date | Date (YYYY-MM-DD) | Observation month (first day of month) |
cfnai | Float | Monthly CFNAI value, in standard-deviation units around trend growth (zero = trend) |
cfnai_ma3 | Float | Three-month moving average of the monthly index (CFNAI-MA3); the smoother business-cycle signal |
Column names match the CSV headers exactly. The CFNAI-MA3 begins three months after the monthly series.
Download the Complete Dataset
The full Chicago Fed National Activity Index dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.
Data provided as is, with no warranty of accuracy or timeliness. Check any figure against the primary source cited on this page before using it. Terms: legal notice.
FRED Direct CSV Access
The underlying monthly index is available from FRED under series code CFNAI:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CFNAI
Direct CSV Access: Eco3min Structured Dataset
https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv
This URL returns the complete dataset, including the CFNAI-MA3 column, in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.
Using the Dataset in Python
import pandas as pd url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv" df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"]) print(df.head()) print(df.describe())
Using the Dataset in R
library(readr) url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv" df <- read_csv(url) head(df) summary(df)
Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL, no download or API key required.
Methodology
Eco3min pulls the monthly CFNAI from the FRED API and recomputes the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) as a trailing mean of the current and two prior months. The dataset is refreshed daily through an automated pipeline so the published file stays aligned with the latest Chicago Fed release; the underlying index itself is published monthly, typically in the second half of the month for the prior month, with revisions to recent observations.
The CFNAI is a coincident indicator of national activity derived as the first principal component of 85 monthly indicators (Stock and Watson, 1999), normalised so that zero equals trend growth and one unit equals one standard deviation. Because individual monthly readings are volatile, the Chicago Fed publishes and emphasises the CFNAI-MA3; Eco3min carries both so users can choose the raw or smoothed series.
Historical Regimes
1973–1975: First oil shock. The CFNAI-MA3 fell well below the −0.70 recession threshold as the OPEC embargo and surging energy prices pushed the US into a deep recession, with industrial production contracting sharply.
1980–1982: Volcker disinflation. Two recessions in close succession, driven by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy to break double-digit inflation, drove the CFNAI-MA3 deeply negative as activity in interest-sensitive sectors collapsed.
2008–2009: Global financial crisis. The CFNAI-MA3 reached one of its lowest readings of the modern era, around −3.5 at the early-2009 trough, as the credit freeze hit production, employment, and consumption simultaneously across all four index categories.
2020: COVID shock. The monthly index collapsed to a record low near −18 in April 2020, then rebounded to record-high positive readings within months as reopening restored activity faster than any prior cycle: a swing with no precedent in the index’s history since 1967.
2021–2022: Reopening and normalisation. The CFNAI-MA3 ran above trend during the reopening boom before settling back toward zero as supply constraints eased and fiscal support faded.
2023–2026: Near-trend growth. The CFNAI-MA3 hovered close to zero, including a reading of −0.03 in March 2026, indicating growth around its historical average rather than the sustained sub-−0.70 territory associated with recessions.
Related Macroeconomic Datasets
- Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: the labour-market companion recession signal
- US Initial Jobless Claims
- US Unemployment Rate
- US Industrial Production
- ISM Manufacturing PMI
- US GDP Growth Rate
Related Research
- Current Macro Regime: where the CFNAI-MA3 sits on the live growth×inflation grid
- Macro Regime Classification Methodology
Macroeconomic Dataset Hub
This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.
Explore the Eco3min Dataset HubSources
- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (publisher of the index and the CFNAI-MA3)
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: series CFNAI (aggregator via which Eco3min extracts the data)
Dataset Reference
Last updated — 5 November 2026
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