Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI): Monthly US Activity Data and CFNAI-MA3 Since 1967

This dataset covers CFNAI monthly from March 1967, together with its three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) — the smoother series Eco3min uses as the real-activity input of its macro regime classification.

Dataset: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (1967–present) · Updated 2026-06-01

Source: FRED · Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Macro Takeaway

Dataset Overview

Dataset Variables

The CSV and Excel files contain the following columns.

Column names match the CSV headers exactly. The CFNAI-MA3 begins three months after the monthly series.

Download the Complete Dataset

The full Chicago Fed National Activity Index dataset is available in CSV and Excel formats.

FRED Direct CSV Access

The underlying monthly index is available from FRED under series code CFNAI:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=CFNAI

Direct CSV Access — Eco3min Structured Dataset

https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv

This URL returns the complete dataset, including the CFNAI-MA3 column, in CSV format. It can be used directly in pandas, R, curl, or any data tool.

Using the Dataset in Python

import pandas as pd

url = "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv"
df = pd.read_csv(url, parse_dates=["date"])

print(df.head())
print(df.describe())

Using the Dataset in R

library(readr)

url <- "https://eco3min.fr/dataset/cfnai-national-activity-index.csv"
df <- read_csv(url)

head(df)
summary(df)

Both examples load the dataset directly from the URL — no download or API key required.

Methodology

Eco3min pulls the monthly CFNAI from the FRED API and recomputes the three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) as a trailing mean of the current and two prior months. The dataset is refreshed daily through an automated pipeline so the published file stays aligned with the latest Chicago Fed release; the underlying index itself is published monthly, typically in the second half of the month for the prior month, with revisions to recent observations.

The CFNAI is a coincident indicator of national activity derived as the first principal component of 85 monthly indicators (Stock and Watson, 1999), normalised so that zero equals trend growth and one unit equals one standard deviation. Because individual monthly readings are volatile, the Chicago Fed publishes and emphasises the CFNAI-MA3; Eco3min carries both so users can choose the raw or smoothed series.

Historical Regimes

1973–1975 — First oil shock. The CFNAI-MA3 fell well below the −0.70 recession threshold as the OPEC embargo and surging energy prices pushed the US into a deep recession, with industrial production contracting sharply.

1980–1982 — Volcker disinflation. Two recessions in close succession, driven by the Federal Reserve’s restrictive policy to break double-digit inflation, drove the CFNAI-MA3 deeply negative as activity in interest-sensitive sectors collapsed.

2008–2009 — Global financial crisis. The CFNAI-MA3 reached one of its lowest readings of the modern era, around −3.5 at the early-2009 trough, as the credit freeze hit production, employment, and consumption simultaneously across all four index categories.

2020 — COVID shock. The monthly index collapsed to a record low near −18 in April 2020, then rebounded to record-high positive readings within months as reopening restored activity faster than any prior cycle — a swing with no precedent in the index’s history since 1967.

2021–2022 — Reopening and normalisation. The CFNAI-MA3 ran above trend during the reopening boom before settling back toward zero as supply constraints eased and fiscal support faded.

2023–2026 — Near-trend growth. The CFNAI-MA3 hovered close to zero, including a reading of −0.03 in March 2026, indicating growth around its historical average rather than the sustained sub-−0.70 territory associated with recessions.

Related Macroeconomic Datasets

Related Research

Macroeconomic Dataset Hub

This dataset is part of the Eco3min macro-financial data repository.

Sources

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — Chicago Fed National Activity Index (publisher of the index and the CFNAI-MA3)
• FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — series CFNAI (aggregator via which Eco3min extracts the data)

Dataset Reference