Macro-financial glossary

The Eco3min macro-financial glossary collects the reference definitions of the indicators, ratios and concepts used across the site. Each term links to its reference page — data, methodology and history.

Bear flattener

A flattening driven by short-term yields rising faster than long-term yields — typically tied to tightening cycles.

Bear steepener

A steepening driven by long-term yields rising faster than short-term yields (yields up) — tied to reflation, a rising term premium, or heavier Treasury supply.

Bond convexity

A measure of how a bond’s duration itself changes as yields move: the curvature of the price-yield relationship, capturing the part of the price change that duration alone — a linear approximation — leaves out.

Bond duration

A measure of a bond’s price sensitivity to interest-rate changes, expressed in years: approximately the percentage change in price for a one-percentage-point change in yield.

Breakeven inflation T10YIE

The difference between a nominal Treasury yield and the equivalent-maturity inflation-protected (TIPS) yield — the average inflation rate at which holding either would produce the same return.

Bull flattener

A flattening driven by long-term yields falling faster than short-term yields — typically tied to growth scares or safe-haven demand for duration.

Bull steepener

A steepening driven by short-term yields falling faster than long-term yields (yields down, prices up) — typically seen around the start of easing cycles.

CAPE / Shiller PE

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (Shiller PE): the real S&P 500 price divided by the average of its real earnings over the prior ten years.

Carry trade

A position that funds itself by borrowing in a low-yielding currency or asset and investing the proceeds in a higher-yielding one, earning the interest-rate differential — the “carry” — for as long as exchange rates and prices stay stable.

Central-bank swap lines

Reciprocal arrangements under which the Federal Reserve provides US dollars to other central banks (ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB and others) in exchange for their currency, to be on-lent to local banks facing a shortage of dollar funding.

CFNAI CFNAI

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a monthly summary of US economic activity built from 85 indicators across production, employment, consumption and sales.

Credit cycle

The recurring expansion and contraction of credit availability — lending standards, borrowing volumes and risk appetite — which often leads and amplifies the broader business cycle rather than moving in lockstep with it.

Equity risk premium

The excess return investors expect from equities over a risk-free rate, compensating for equity risk.

Excess CAPE yield

The inverse of the CAPE ratio (the cyclically adjusted earnings yield) minus the real 10-year Treasury yield — an equity risk premium proxy proposed by Robert Shiller.

Fed balance sheet / QT WALCL

The total assets held by the Federal Reserve; quantitative tightening (QT) is the deliberate reduction of those holdings, the reverse of quantitative easing.

Flattening

A narrowing of the gap between long- and short-term Treasury yields: the curve gets flatter as short yields rise toward long, or long fall toward short; taken far enough it becomes inversion.

High-yield OAS BAMLH0A0HYM2

The extra yield of below-investment-grade US corporate bonds over Treasuries, adjusted for embedded options (the option-adjusted spread).

Housing affordability

The relationship between home prices, household income and borrowing costs: how much of a typical income is required to buy or finance a typical home in a given market.

IG spread (BBB) BAMLC0A4CBBB

The extra yield of BBB-rated US corporate bonds — the lowest investment-grade tier — over Treasuries, adjusted for embedded options.

Net liquidity

A constructed proxy for the dollars available to financial markets: the Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account minus the overnight reverse repo facility.

NFCI NFCI

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index, a weekly summary of US financial conditions built from 105 indicators of risk, credit and leverage.

Sahm rule SAHMREALTIME

A real-time recession indicator: it signals when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage point or more above its lowest point in the prior twelve months.

Soft landing

A slowdown in which a central bank tightens monetary policy enough to bring inflation down toward its target without tipping the economy into recession: growth cools and unemployment rises only modestly rather than sharply.

Stagflation

The simultaneous combination of stagnant economic growth (often with rising unemployment) and persistently high inflation — a pairing that standard demand-management policy struggles to address, because measures that cool inflation tend to deepen the slowdown.

Steepening

A widening of the gap between long- and short-term Treasury yields: the curve gets steeper as long yields rise relative to short, or short yields fall relative to long.

Term premium ACMTP10

The extra yield investors require to hold a long-term bond rather than rolling a sequence of short-term bills, compensating for the uncertainty of future interest rates over the bond’s life.

VIX VIXCLS

The CBOE Volatility Index, the market’s expected 30-day forward volatility of S&P 500 options, expressed in annualized percentage points.

Yield curve / inversion T10Y2Y

The relationship between Treasury yields and their maturities; an inversion is when short-term yields exceed long-term ones, i.e. the 10-year minus 2-year spread turns negative.

Last updated — 24 June 2026