Yield Curve Signals: What the 2026 Configuration Reveals
The US yield curve is dis-inverting but credit conditions remain tight heading into 2026. Mid-duration has reemerged as a central reference as markets reprice the cost of time.
Tag Yield Curve
This tag is dedicated to the analysis of the term structure of interest rates. Inversion, steepening, flattening: the shape of the yield curve signals expectations about growth, inflation and monetary policy. The yield curve is one of the leading indicators most closely watched by economists and investors.
Why Markets Can Rise Despite an Inverted Yield Curve
An inverted yield curve can coexist with rising markets without invalidating the signal. The lag reflects a structural disconnect between financial regime and economic regime, transmitted through credit before reaching asset prices.
Why Markets Can Rise with an Inverted Yield Curve
An inverted yield curve can coexist with resilient equity markets. The lag stems from balance sheet inertia, credit channel delays, and liquidity effects — not from a failed signal.
Long-Term Rates and Monetary Policy Transmission
Long-term rates aggregate expectations of future short rates, inflation expectations and a term premium. They drive most monetary transmission to the real economy — far more than policy rates alone.
Positive Term Premium: Implications for Treasuries, Equities and Valuations Under ACMTP10 Above Zero
When the 10-year Treasury term premium is positive and durable, the asset-price architecture reconfigures: mechanical curve steepening, Equity Risk Premium recomposition, multiple compression for long-duration equity indices, and international transmission through portfolio flows. TL;DR A durable positive term premium steepens…
Negative Term Premium 2016-2024: Anatomy of an Eight-Year Monetary Anomaly
For eight consecutive years — from June 2016 to August 2024 — the 10-year Treasury term premium remained in negative territory, a configuration modern finance had theoretically ruled out and that the New York Fed nonetheless measured month after month…
ACMTP10 vs DGS10 vs Expected Short Rates: The Full Decomposition of the 10-Year Treasury Yield
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield has not one decomposition but two, operating simultaneously on different layers — temporal for ACM, inflationary for Fisher — that intersect to form the reference grid of modern Treasury analysis. TL;DR Modern Treasury analysis splits…
ACMTP10 Meaning and Computation: Understanding the Adrian-Crump-Moench (2013) Model
ACMTP10 is not an analyst opinion but the output of a five-factor regression published by the New York Fed in 2013, reproducible with standard statistical software and refreshed monthly on the ACM dashboard. TL;DR Built in 2013 for the FOMC's…
ACMTP10 and the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium: the Adrian-Crump-Moench Decomposition Separating Rate Expectations from Duration Compensation
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield is not an opaque aggregate but the observable sum of two components the market prices separately, per the Adrian-Crump-Moench decomposition published by the New York Fed in 2013. TL;DR The same twenty-basis-point move in the…
MORTGAGE30US vs DGS10: What the Spread to the Treasury Reveals About Mortgage Risk
The MORTGAGE30US level says little without its distance to the 10-year Treasury. The spread, averaging around 170 basis points since 1971, breaks down into three premia — prepayment, rate volatility, MBS liquidity — making this gap the real diagnostic tool…