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Yield Curve

The slope of the yield curve is the market’s compressed forecast for growth, inflation and central bank policy. Inversions have preceded US recessions with lags that differ from one cycle to the next, and the transmission runs through bank lending margins rather than through the signal itself. The 2s10s and 10y-3m spreads, the Adrian-Crump-Moench term premium, daily 10-year Treasury data since 1962 and the full inversion record since 1976 are gathered here.

47pieces
11in-depth analyses
27datasets
3quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Yield Curve Steepening and Flattening: Bull and Bear, Explained What yield curve steepening and flattening mean, plus the four shapes, bull and bear steepeners and flatteners, and the rate moves that drive each one AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism Why Markets Can Rise Despite an Inverted Yield Curve An inverted yield curve can coexist with rising equity markets. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence 2s10s Yield Curve Inversion History (1976–2026) Complete history of 2s10s yield curve inversions since 1976, including timing, depth, and recession lead times. StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset 4.95%Latest value · November 2026 DGS10: Daily 10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield from FRED (1962–2026) See the data → Dataset 0.32%Latest value · November 2026 T10Y2Y: Daily 10-Year Minus 2-Year US Treasury Yield Spread from FRED (1976–2026) See the data → StudyEvery U.S. Recession Since 1948: Duration, Depth, and What Preceded Each One StudyHow to Buy Bonds: TreasuryDirect, Funds, ETFs and the Maturity Question

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

Central Banks and Monetary Policy7

The sub-pillar →

Monetary Transmission to Corporate Earnings4

The sub-pillar →

Inflation Explained3

The sub-pillar →

Other angles23

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonDuration vs convexity: two layers of rate sensitivity ComparisonPolicy rates vs long-term rates: why they move differently ComparisonTIPS vs nominal Treasuries: what breakevens reveal

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This topic also exists in French.Courbe des taux, 21 pieces →