Long-Term Rates and Monetary Policy Transmission
Long-term rates aggregate expectations of future short rates, inflation expectations and a term premium. They drive most monetary transmission to the real economy — far more than policy rates alone.
Tag Yield Curve
This tag is dedicated to the analysis of the term structure of interest rates. Inversion, steepening, flattening: the shape of the yield curve signals expectations about growth, inflation and monetary policy. The yield curve is one of the leading indicators most closely watched by economists and investors.
DGS10 and Treasury Demand: Fiscal Deficit, Issuance and Bond Market Stress
Record Treasury issuance since 2022 and the recomposition of the buyer base durably structure the DGS10 term premium. Understanding this supply-demand equation has become a prerequisite for reading the 10-year yield in the contemporary fiscal regime. DGS10 does not form…
DGS10 at 4%: Analytical Significance of a Regime Threshold
The 4% threshold on DGS10 is not an operational signal but an analytical reference: it marks the statistical frontier between the ZIRP regime and the post-2022 regime. Its meaning depends on its composition in real yield, breakeven and term premium…
DGS10 History 1962-2026: Three Regimes of 10-Year Treasury Yields
The FRED DGS10 series starts in January 1962 at 4.11% and stands in May 2026 around 4.2%. This near-perfect return masks three successive monetary regimes with radically different drivers and amplitudes. Identifying the regime in force is not a historian’s…
DGS10 vs Fed Funds Rate: Monetary Transmission and the Yield Curve Mechanism
Term structure theory says DGS10 is the integral of expected Fed Funds plus a term premium. The empirical 2000-2026 relationship shows an unstable elasticity, periods of decoupling, and the rare configuration where DGS10 falls below the policy rate — followed…
DGS10 Meaning: 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Constant Maturity Calculation
The DGS10 published daily by the Federal Reserve is not the yield of an identifiable Treasury bond but a statistical construction called Constant Maturity Treasury, readable only with its method. Understanding CMT plumbing separates the analyst who reads the 10-year…
DGS10: 10-Year Treasury Yield as a Macro Signal and Financing Benchmark
DGS10, the Fed’s daily Constant Maturity series, is the nominal 10-year Treasury yield that anchors all long-term pricing in the U.S. economy: mortgages, corporate bonds, equity discount rates, fiscal sustainability. After a decade of ZIRP, the post-2022 exit returned DGS10…
Inverted Yield Curve in 2026 : Why De-Inversion Is the Real Risk
The persistent inversion of the U.S. yield curve calls the consensus soft-landing scenario into question. A breakdown of the signals to watch and the allocation strategies to favor. TL;DR: (1) Despite the start of the monetary easing cycle, the U.S.…
Yield Curve: The Most Misunderstood Signal in Financial Markets
Major financial crises rarely emerge in the areas that are most closely monitored. They often appear in the gaps of the financial system, when certain tensions become invisible to traditional indicators. The yield curve summarizes market expectations for growth, inflation,…