This tag is dedicated to the analysis of the term structure of interest rates. Inversion, steepening, flattening: the shape of the yield curve signals expectations about growth, inflation and monetary policy. The yield curve is one of the leading indicators most closely watched by economists and investors.
Record Treasury issuance since 2022 and the recomposition of the buyer base durably structure the DGS10 term premium. Understanding this supply-demand equation has become a prerequisite for reading the 10-year yield in the contemporary fiscal regime. TL;DR Record post-2022 Treasury…
The 4% threshold on DGS10 is not an operational signal but an analytical reference: it marks the statistical frontier between the ZIRP regime and the post-2022 regime. Its meaning depends on its composition in real yield, breakeven and term premium…
The FRED DGS10 series starts in January 1962 at 4.11% and stands in May 2026 around 4.2%. This near-perfect return masks three successive monetary regimes with radically different drivers and amplitudes. TL;DR The 10-year's 6% average since 1962 is a…
Term structure theory says DGS10 is the integral of expected Fed Funds plus a term premium. The empirical 2000-2026 relationship shows an unstable elasticity, periods of decoupling, and the rare configuration where DGS10 falls below the policy rate — followed…
The DGS10 published daily by the Federal Reserve is not the yield of an identifiable Treasury bond but a statistical construction called Constant Maturity Treasury, readable only with its method. TL;DR Reconstructed each business day by cubic-spline interpolation, DGS10 gives…
DGS10, the Fed’s daily Constant Maturity series, is the nominal 10-year Treasury yield that anchors all long-term pricing in the U.S. economy: mortgages, corporate bonds, equity discount rates, fiscal sustainability. TL;DR DGS10, the Fed's daily 10-year Constant Maturity yield, anchors…
The T10Y3M un-inversion began on August 23, 2024 (Powell's Jackson Hole speech) and concluded on December 13, 2024 with the zero-boundary crossing — ending 626 trading days in inversion, the longest sequence since Volcker.
The September 1998 T10Y3M inversion is the single documented false positive for the signal since 1968: a brief inversion triggered by the Russian crisis and LTCM, neutralized by three Fed cuts in eight weeks.
The T10Y3M inversion from October 25, 2022 to December 13, 2024 lasted 626 trading days in negative territory — the longest since Volcker, with a historical trough at -189 basis points in May 2023.
T10Y3M and T10Y2Y are two complementary curve spreads. The former dominates in predictive robustness across eight inversions since 1968, the latter inverts earlier and captures the expectations gap among shorter maturities.
