Nasdaq 100: The True Risk Barometer of the Cycle
The Nasdaq 100 is no longer just a tech index but the gravity centre of global equity risk, with concentration on AI mega-caps reshaping correlation, hedging and allocation dynamics.
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Copper Supercycle: What the Disappointed 2011 Peak Recalls About Extrapolation
Every copper supercycle peak has come with a story of durable structural demand. Yet the 2011 top was followed by a multi-year correction, a reminder that commodity cycles contain their own turning point. TL;DR High commodity prices fund the supply…
From Copper to Inflation: How the Metal’s Price Transmits to Prices (PPI, CPI)
Copper is an industrial input: its price enters production costs before it reaches the consumer. A rise, especially a supply-driven one, can therefore feed cost-push inflation without vigorous demand being at play. TL;DR Copper's price imprint runs strong and fast…
Copper vs Industrial Metals: What the Divergence Reveals About the Cycle Signal
Comparing copper with the other base metals clarifies what its price should really say. In 2025 the complex rose together, but copper nearly doubled the average gain: that dispersion isolates the non-cyclical part of its rise. TL;DR Across the base-metals…
Copper and Electrification: Does Structural Demand Change the Metal’s Cyclical Read?
Copper demand splits between cyclical uses, tied to the pace of activity, and a structural layer driven by electrification. That second component, indifferent to the cycle, blurs the metal’s read as a growth barometer. TL;DR Copper demand stacks a cyclical…
The Copper-Gold Ratio as a Macro Signal: Still a Reliable Gauge of Treasury Yields in 2024-2026?
The copper-gold ratio pits a growth metal against a safe haven, and for years it tracked the 10-year US Treasury yield. Since 2024 the two have split apart: the ratio has collapsed while yields have stayed high. TL;DR For years…
Gold Demand Composition: Jewellery, Investment, Central Banks
Gold demand is no homogeneous aggregate: it brings together jewellery, investment in bars, coins and exchange-traded funds, central-bank purchases and technological use, components with opposite drivers that a single figure conceals. TL;DR Four components with opposite price sensitivities structure gold…
Asian Gold Demand: Shanghai, India and the Physical Premium
China and India form the physical heart of the gold market, and local price gaps, a premium in Shanghai, a discount in Mumbai, signal the real intensity of demand, where the London price stays silent. TL;DR In 2026 one world…
Gold Mine Supply: Why Price Does Not Make Production
Gold supply barely responds to its price: mine production stays nearly flat even at peaks, and the stock already extracted dwarfs the annual flow. It is this inertia, captured by the stock-to-flow ratio, that sets gold apart from ordinary commodities.…
Gold and US Public Debt: The Fiscal Driver
The US fiscal trajectory, debt at records and interest exceeding the defense budget, ranks among the structural drivers of gold demand: a liability-free asset, sought when a state’s debt looks less safe. TL;DR U.S. interest payments now exceed the entire…