https://eco3min.fr/en/commodity-regimes-physical-constraints-energy-transition/
Since late 2023, WTI has traded in a narrow $70-85 corridor with realized volatility compressed to levels unprecedented outside crisis. Three structural readings coexist: slowed Chinese demand, U.S. shale as swing producer, U.S. SPR at only 50% capacity. This piece…
When WTI rises 30%, how much CPI inflation results? Estimated pass-through transmits 0.2 to 0.4 of the shock to headline CPI over six months, weaker on core, with intensity varying by macro regime — pre-GFC, post-GFC, post-COVID. This piece exposes…
The oil burden measures oil’s weight in the economy: WTI price × national consumption / nominal GDP. Formalized by James Hamilton from 1983 onwards, the metric indicates that above 4-5% of GDP, three transmission channels produce a cumulative dynamic that…
Since 1973, WTI has traversed seven major shocks. Each combines in variable doses three ingredients — physical supply constraint, structural demand pull, financial stress — whose identification enables reading the nature of the shock rather than its magnitude alone. This…
Since 2011, WTI has structurally priced $3 to $5 below Brent. This discount is not anecdotal: it results from three mechanical factors — U.S. export capacity, Cushing logistics, pricing geography — that clarify what each benchmark actually measures. This piece…
WTI is a precise object: light sweet crude at 39.6 degrees API and 0.24% sulfur, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, tracked by FRED’s DCOILWTICO series at daily frequency since 1986. These three technical coordinates condition every macroeconomic reading that follows. This…
WTI, the U.S. barrel priced at Cushing, is not just a price — it is a macroeconomic barometer that compresses physical supply constraints, inflationary transmission, and geopolitical risk premium into a single daily signal. This piece frames the WTI instrument…
Crossing $3,000 per ounce in March 2025 is a major media inflection point, but analytically it does not reduce to a threshold — it signals the coexistence of three distinct macro readings that no available data can yet arbitrate among.…
Net seller until 2009, the global official sector became a structural gold buyer from 2022 onward, with annual volumes — roughly 1,080 tonnes in 2022 — doubling those of the prior decade. This buying wave constitutes an underestimated driver in…
Since the unilateral end of dollar-gold convertibility announced by Nixon on August 15, 1971, gold prices have experienced four major cycles and three regime shifts, each carrying its own macro reading. The historical inventory of cycles is not a retrospective…
