https://eco3min.fr/en/commodity-regimes-physical-constraints-energy-transition/
The inverse correlation between gold and the 10-year TIPS yield is empirically documented over nearly thirty years, but it has never been a stable coefficient: it deforms and breaks according to macro regimes. This article does not restate the theoretical…
The inverse correlation between gold and the dollar is not a statistical coincidence but an international arbitrage mechanic anchored in the fact that gold is quoted in dollars on every global market. The correlation is robust over long horizons but…
The global reference gold price is not a single live datapoint but an institutional fixing produced twice daily in London, calibrated against a precise bar format and a precise delivery standard. Understanding the quotation mechanic is a prerequisite for reading…
Gold prices do not track inflation: they track the monetary opportunity cost of holding, itself driven by real yields, the dollar and — since 2022 — a long-dormant driver, record central bank buying. Reading gold today requires combining three distinct…
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is once again becoming a major pressure point in global trade. In an environment of high interest rates and fragile supply chains, a localized maritime disruption can now quickly transmit to industrial margins and inflation. The…
From a shock in oil or metals to a Fed rate decision, the transmission chain unfolds in three stages and 12 to 24 months — a sequence that explains why every supply-driven inflation cycle since the 1970s has produced sharper recessions than demand-driven ones.
Commodities are not ordinary goods. They sit at the intersection of investment cycles, monetary arbitrage, and emerging geopolitical fault lines — and their signals consistently land ahead of traditional macroeconomic indicators. How commodities anticipate macroeconomic turning points Commodities do not…
Commodity prices do not register an instantaneous supply–demand equilibrium. They register a structural asymmetry: physical supply takes years to adjust; financial demand reconfigures within hours. Why commodity prices never reflect real-time equilibrium Commodity prices do not measure equilibrium — they…
