Home › Topics › Economic Cycles
FR · Cycles économiques

Topic

Economic Cycles

A slowdown is not a recession, and quarterly headlines rarely reveal which phase the economy is in. Investment, inventories, final demand and productivity drive the cycle more than reported GDP, which arrives late and gets revised. The Sahm rule, jobless claims, recession-detection composites and every US recession since 1948 are gathered here to date a phase before the national accounts catch up.

64pieces
18in-depth analyses
36datasets
2quick reads

Where to start

Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.

01The basics Wage-Price Spirals: Mechanism and Historical Lessons Wage-price spirals: the three conditions required to ignite one, why the 1970s episode persisted, and why 2022-2024 inflation surge did not trigger a spiral. AnalysisRead → 02The full mechanism Yield Curve Inversion: How the Credit Channel Triggers Recessions Yield curve inversion doesn’t just signal recessions. In-depth analysisRead → 03The evidence 2s10s Yield Curve Inversion History (1976–2026) Complete history of 2s10s yield curve inversions since 1976, including timing, depth, and recession lead times. StudyRead →

Research and data

Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.

Dataset BAMLH0A0HYM2: ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread Daily BAMLH0A0HYM2, daily ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread: history, regimes, pitfalls. See the data → Dataset 121.19%Latest value · April 2026 GFDEGDQ188S: US Federal Debt to GDP Quarterly Ratio Since 1966 See the data → StudyOil Shocks and US Recessions: The 4%-of-GDP Burden Threshold (1970–2026) StudyEvery U.S. Recession Since 1948: Duration, Depth, and What Preceded Each One

All analyses, by angle

Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.

Understanding the Economic Cycle7

The sub-pillar →

Inflation Explained7

The sub-pillar →

Crisis Hub3

The sub-pillar →

Other angles38

Quick reads

Comparisons and common misconceptions: the essentials in a few minutes.

ComparisonNominal vs real wages: why a raise can still hurt ComparisonSoft landing vs hard landing: the historical record

Related topics

The subjects that most often intersect with this topic in our analyses.

Inflation114 pieces Inflation is a regime rather than a monthly print, and its persistence matters more than its level. 7 in common → Sovereign Debt & Fiscal Dominance16 pieces Public debt starts to bind when the interest rate on it durably exceeds nominal growth. 5 in common → Global Liquidity34 pieces The Fed’s balance sheet is not market liquidity, even though the two are often treated as one. 3 in common → Credit Cycles24 pieces Credit turns before the economy does, and it rarely turns gently. 2 in common → Risk Premium & Valuation36 pieces An asset price is a numerical bet on growth, inflation and risk; valuation says which bet, not when it will fail. 2 in common → Yield Curve47 pieces The slope of the yield curve is the market’s compressed forecast for growth, inflation and central bank policy. 2 in common →
This topic also exists in French.Cycles économiques, 32 pieces →