Do Central Banks Really Control the Economy?
Central bank action influences the economy but remains constrained by private behavior and financial structure. The 2022-2025 ECB cycle illustrates both the reach and the limits of the rate instrument.
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Why Rate Hikes Don’t Slow the Economy Right Away
Rate hikes act on the economy with a lag because of decision delays and existing contracts. Financial markets reprice within hours, but real activity only adjusts over four to six quarters.
Gold: Monetary Asset, Real Rates and Confidence Regimes
Gold is not a conventional commodity but a latent monetary asset. Its price tracks real rates and monetary credibility more than headline inflation, with central bank flows now reshaping the market.
Rate Hikes: Why the Economy Doesn’t Adjust Right Away
Monetary transmission is never instantaneous. Existing contracts, balance sheets and investment commitments propagate rate changes progressively rather than as an immediate shock. This inertia shapes the rhythm of the monetary cycle.
Euro Funds in Life Insurance: Still Useful in 2026?
Euro funds in French life insurance regain strategic relevance in 2026 amid positive real rates and renewed market volatility. Their role: securing capital, absorbing shocks and structuring long-term allocation.
Monetary Policy: Why Short-Term Effects Stay Hidden
Monetary decisions produce real effects, but rarely visible in the short run. The gap between policy action, private adjustments and statistical releases creates an illusion of ineffectiveness.
Monetary Policy: Why Investment Reacts with a Lag
Productive investment does not adjust instantly to monetary conditions. Project irreversibility, fixed costs and macroeconomic uncertainty extend the lag between rate cuts and effective capital expenditure.
Monetary Transmission: Rates, Credit, Expectations
Monetary policy never operates through a single lever. Rates, credit, asset prices, FX and expectations propagate at distinct speeds, producing a transmission that is fragmented and at times incomplete.
VIX contrarian thresholds and historical equity rebounds: what 30, 40 and 50 breaches preceded for the S&P 500
Since 1990, seven of the eight breaches of the 50 threshold by the VIX have been followed by an S&P 500 rebound over the twelve-month horizon. The empirical regularity is documented and stable; its operational scope remains nevertheless limited by…
VIX 2023-2026: not a compression but a low calm twice broken by violent spikes
Since November 2024, the average VIX stands at 15.1 over eighteen months, 4.4 points below its 1990-2025 average. This durable compression recalls 2017 and 2019 — levels that preceded Volmageddon and the COVID crash — but the macro composition underlying…