In August 2024, after eight consecutive years in negative territory, ACMTP10 moved durably above zero. The crossing is not statistical noise but the combined effect of three forces whose respective weight and durability the academic literature debates without resolution. TL;DR…
For eight consecutive years — from June 2016 to August 2024 — the 10-year Treasury term premium remained in negative territory, a configuration modern finance had theoretically ruled out and that the New York Fed nonetheless measured month after month…
The central bank’s balance sheet is not an accounting byproduct of monetary policy but a standalone instrument that acts directly on the 10-year Treasury term premium, by removing or returning duration to the market. TL;DR The Fed balance sheet moves…
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield has not one decomposition but two, operating simultaneously on different layers — temporal for ACM, inflationary for Fisher — that intersect to form the reference grid of modern Treasury analysis. TL;DR Modern Treasury analysis splits…
ACMTP10 is not an analyst opinion but the output of a five-factor regression published by the New York Fed in 2013, reproducible with standard statistical software and refreshed monthly on the ACM dashboard. TL;DR Built in 2013 for the FOMC's…
The nominal 10-year Treasury yield is not an opaque aggregate but the observable sum of two components the market prices separately, per the Adrian-Crump-Moench decomposition published by the New York Fed in 2013. TL;DR The same twenty-basis-point move in the…
May 2026: MORTGAGE30US prints around 6.5-6.9% even though the Fed started its cutting cycle in September 2024 and Fed Funds has fallen roughly 150 basis points. Fed-to-mortgage transmission is not operating with historical elasticity. Three competing readings circulate — widened…
Five major cycles structure the MORTGAGE30US history since its 1971 inception: Volcker, Greenspan disinflation, pre-GFC Bernanke, post-GFC QE, COVID. Each has its trigger — monetary policy, inflation shock, financial crisis, pandemic — and a characteristic duration. TL;DR The 2021-2023 jump…
The MORTGAGE30US level says little without its distance to the 10-year Treasury. The spread, averaging around 170 basis points since 1971, breaks down into three premia — prepayment, rate volatility, MBS liquidity — making this gap the real diagnostic tool…
The most-cited U.S. mortgage rate, MORTGAGE30US, is a weekly aggregate Freddie Mac has built since April 1971 from a survey of national lenders. What it means depends as much on the standardized product underlying it as on the survey methodology.…
