Gold prices do not track inflation: they track the monetary opportunity cost of holding, itself driven by real yields, the dollar and — since 2022 — a long-dormant driver, record central bank buying. TL;DR Since Nixon ended dollar-gold convertibility in…
WALCL aggregates the size of the Fed balance sheet, not the liquidity available to markets. Three structural limits distort the signal: the TGA, the ON RRP, and the accounting value of MBS. Each introduces a gap between the WALCL level…
Since June 2022, WALCL has fallen from ~$8.97 to ~$6.8 trillion — a $2.2 trillion drawdown in three and a half years. The cap was modulated in May 2024; actual runoff oscillates between $35 and $50 billion monthly. The terminal…
Over fifteen years, the Fed has shifted the function it assigns to its balance sheet: prolonged emergency tool against the ZLB (2008-2014), rapid-response weapon to the Covid shock (2020-2022), then permanent variable-dosage lever (2022-2026). Three distinct doctrinal regimes. TL;DR Across…
The Fed’s WALCL-to-GDP ratio moved from 6% in 2008 to 38% at the March 2022 Covid peak, before retreating toward 24% by late 2025. Compared to the ECB (50%), the BoJ (120%) and the BoE (24%), it positions the Fed…
By late 2025, the ~$6.8 trillion WALCL splits into roughly $4.3 trillion of Treasuries, $2.3 trillion of agency MBS and $200 billion of residual assets. This recent composition mechanically conditions what the current QT can produce. TL;DR Agency MBS, added…
The WALCL ticker published weekly by FRED measures precisely the total assets held by the consolidated Federal Reserve System. This strict definition excludes the liability side, flows, and three objects regularly conflated with it: M2, monetary base, and market liquidity.…
Since 2008, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet aggregated in the WALCL ticker has become the Fed’s effective monetary footprint, complementing the Fed Funds rate. Reading it correctly conditions any analysis of financial conditions and of the 2022-2026 QT runoff now…
The CAPE has never enjoyed full academic consensus. The most structured critique comes from Jeremy Siegel who, in his 2016 paper “The Shiller CAPE Ratio: A New Look,” identifies three major methodological biases: the 2001 FASB 142 accounting break, the…
In May 2026, the S&P 500 CAPE oscillates around 35-40 per Shiller Online Data — the ratio’s third durable passage above the 30 threshold in 145 years after 1929 and 1999, in a configuration combining extreme equity valuation and positive…
