The 2022 gas crisis played out in a few months along a precise sequence: rupture of Russian flows, price surge, a scramble to fill storage amplified by seasonality, then adjustment through industrial rationing. TL;DR Unable to expand supply quickly, the…
Liquefied natural gas links regional markets through arbitrage: a cargo sails toward the region paying most, which narrows prices without ever equalizing them, for lack of sufficient transport capacity. TL;DR In early 2026, LNG to East Asia and European TTF…
The gap between European TTF and US Henry Hub — the transatlantic gas spread — captures, in a single magnitude, the energy cost differential between the two large industrial zones of the Atlantic. TL;DR The TTF-Henry Hub spread condenses transport,…
Natural gas has no single world price: its molecule, hard to move from one continent to another, stays captive to regional markets whose prices can diverge for long stretches. TL;DR Gas splits into regional markets because its molecule travels only…
Brent is trading around $82–86 per barrel while global demand hits new highs. Upstream underinvestment, OPEC+ discipline and contained geopolitical premiums are building an invisible floor that consensus pricing largely ignores into 2026.
Natural gas market: an apparent supply surplus masks the risk of a sharp price move if a few parameters tip in 2026.
Brent crude: how to interpret the late-2025 price retreat and recalibrate exposure across geopolitical risk, inventories, demand and the rate cycle.
How refining margins drive oil profits and why this discreet lever — beyond crude prices — has become central to energy markets and corporate earnings.
Since late 2023, WTI has traded in a narrow $70-85 corridor with realized volatility compressed to levels unprecedented outside crisis. Three structural readings coexist: slowed Chinese demand, U.S. shale as swing producer, U.S. SPR at only 50% capacity. TL;DR A…
When WTI rises 30%, how much CPI inflation results? Estimated pass-through transmits 0.2 to 0.4 of the shock to headline CPI over six months, weaker on core, with intensity varying by macro regime — pre-GFC, post-GFC, post-COVID. TL;DR Eco3min calculations…
