This tag gathers articles analysing the major structural economic configurations: persistent inflation, disinflation, stagflation or deflation. It focuses on transitions between regimes and the ruptures that redefine the investment environment. A macro-financial regime change durably alters the behaviour of assets, central banks and economic agents. It is not a one-off event but a shift in logic.
“Does cash protect against inflation?” The question expects a yes or a no. The series since 1960 answers differently: the real return depends on the macro regime. The same instrument protects in one configuration and erodes in another. “Does cash…
Tax deferral, the core advantage of a traditional 401(k), IRA or annuity, is usually praised as a flat benefit. It is not flat. The worth of postponing tax depends on the rate regime, because what deferral spares you, the tax…
A protection set for the regime that has just ended becomes a risk when inflation shifts: yesterday’s hedge loses its engine, and the cost of mistiming the regime often exceeds the cost of picking the wrong asset. TL;DR Inflation-linked bonds…
The 1970s and the 2021-2022 episode show high inflation almost twinned by level, but opposite winners: gold, cash and property switched sides, because the path of real rates was reversed. TL;DR Gold rose from $35 to near $850 across the…
Cost-push or demand-pull, brief or lasting: each combination has historically rewarded a different protection, and it is the path of real rates it triggers that settles the ranking. TL;DR A single inflation episode can travel across the grid's four cells…
At nearly identical average inflation (~8%/yr), gold delivered a positive real return in the 1970s (negative real rates) and a negative one in 2022 (positive real rates): the path of real rates sorts the hedges. Sources: World Bank Pink Sheet,…
The same support does not produce the same net result held in a life-insurance-style contract, an equity savings plan or a brokerage account. The wrapper does not change the asset’s nature, but its tax treatment, its liquidity and the relative…
A guaranteed fund’s capital guarantee protects the nominal, not purchasing power. That protection has a price — a yield capped by cautious management — and a limit: in an inflationary regime, guaranteed capital can erode in real terms year after…
A guaranteed fund’s served yield is a smoothed, lagged signal; a unit-linked value is the market’s present state — two transmission speeds for the same rate cycle. In a life-insurance-style contract, the guaranteed pocket and unit-linked holdings absorb the rate…
Silver and platinum are not cheaper gold: their dual nature, monetary and industrial, makes them more volatile and more sensitive to the economic cycle. The gold/silver ratio is a regime gauge, not a signal. TL;DR Silver still reacts to gold's…
