Topic
Macro-Financial Regimes
A hedge that worked in one inflation regime can become the risk in the next. Persistent inflation, disinflation, stagflation or financial repression durably change the stock-bond correlation, the role of gold and the real return on savings: the 1970s and 2022 saw comparable inflation with opposite winners. Regime profiles, with their mechanisms, indicators and historical episodes, document what held up, and what gave way, in each configuration.
Where to start
Three reads, in order: the basics, the full mechanism, then what the data says.
01The basics Silver and Platinum as Holdings: Risk Profiles and the Gold/Silver Ratio by Regime Silver and platinum carry a dual industrial-monetary nature and higher volatility than gold. AnalysisRead →
02The full mechanism Gold’s Role Across the Real-Rate Regime Gold pays no coupon, so its portfolio role tracks the real rate and the dollar more than inflation alone. In-depth analysisRead →
03The evidence The Disinflationary Regime: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Historical Episodes Mechanisms, institutional indicators, and historical episodes of the disinflationary regime. StudyRead → Research and data
Our in-depth research and the downloadable series on the subject.
StudyFinancial Repression: Mechanisms, Institutional Indicators, and Historical Episodes
StudyThe Inflationary Regime: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Historical Episodes
StudyBest Investments 2026: Every Major Vehicle, Read Through the Macro Regime All analyses, by angle
Grouped by sub-topic rather than by date. Filter to get straight to the point.
Choosing investments in the light of the macro cycle4
The sub-pillar →- CoreProtecting Savings From Inflation: What Has Worked, and in Which Regime No single asset hedges every inflation regime. Jun 18, 2026
- CoreGuaranteed funds vs unit-linked: behaviour across the rate regime How guaranteed funds and unit-linked savings behave inside a life-insurance contract across the rate cycle. Jun 18, 2026
- CoreWhich bond ETF for the rate regime How the main bond ETF categories behave as real rates rise, plateau or fall. Jun 17, 2026
- Which Inflation Regime Rewards Which Protection Cost-push or demand-pull, transitory or lasting: each inflation regime has historically rewarded a different protection. Jun 18, 2026
Foreign Exchange Markets and International Monetary Regimes3
The sub-pillar →- CoreThe Dollar Shortage Regime: Mechanisms, Indicators, and Historical Episodes Mechanisms, indicators, and historical episodes of the dollar shortage regime. May 26, 2026
- CoreThe Strong Dollar Regime: Structural Mechanisms and Market Transmission Why the US dollar remains structurally strong: real-rate differentials, capital flows, dollar funding stress, and global market transmission effects. Mar 10, 2026
- EUR/JPY: The Quiet Threshold Reshuffling the Carry Trade EUR/JPY carry trade: how the late-2025 narrowing rate gap and rising implied volatility are reshaping the risk/return profile for investors and corporates. Jun 14, 2026
Crisis Hub3
The sub-pillar →- CoreThe 2000 Dot-Com Crash: a regime shift read through the indicators How, between 2000 and 2002, the United States shifted into a disinflationary slowdown, an equity crash of nearly 78% that did not become a credit crisis: read… May 31, 2026
- CoreThe 2008 Financial Crisis: a regime shift read through the indicators How the US shifted into a disinflationary slowdown regime in 2008, read through the Eco3min indicators: the yield curve inverted in 2006, housing turned May 31, 2026
- CoreEvery S&P 500 Drawdown Since 1950: A Catalog of 17 Episodes by Depth, Duration, Recovery, and Macro Regime Research · Equity Markets · Updated September 2026 A reproducible inventory of every S&P 500 decline of 10% or more between January 1950 and September 2026,… May 12, 2026
Other angles7
- CoreInverted Yield Curve: Why a Slow Signal Still Works The inverted yield curve is not an immediate trigger but a regime-level imbalance: invisible short term yet structural across business and credit cycles. Jun 4, 2026
- CoreEarnings Surprises and Financial Regime Shifts Why earnings surprises reveal a financial regime shift well before any index correction or visible macro signal, and what they actually measure. Jun 4, 2026
- CoreCrypto Assets and Monetary Regimes: A Macro-Financial Framework Crypto assets are driven by real interest rates, global liquidity, and monetary regimes, not tech adoption alone. Mar 10, 2026
- CoreCommodities and the Business Cycle: A Leading Indicator of Economic Regimes How commodities anticipate macroeconomic regime shifts: investment cycles, supply constraints, monetary transmission, and geopolitical fragmentation. Mar 10, 2026
- The Gold/Oil Ratio: How Many Barrels an Ounce Buys The gold/oil ratio sets a monetary asset against an energy one. Jun 14, 2026
- Secular Stagnation Mechanisms, indicators, and historical episodes of secular stagnation. May 26, 2026
- Analyzing the Economic Cycle: A Framework for Macro Regime Identification A structured framework to analyze the economic cycle through real activity, financial conditions, behavior, and hidden fragilities, without timing or forecasting. Apr 2, 2026
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